Festival Fever - The Big Debate | Is Paisley Park a Stayers’ banker? Have your say!
Every Sunday until March we're asking you to get involved in one of the key questions facing Cheltenham Festival punters. Now we discuss Paisley Park. Get involved!
Is Paisley Park a Paddy Power Stayers' Hurdle banker? Send your thoughts in via twitter @SportingLife, Facebook or on email to racingfeedback@sportinglife.com.
The winning run
After finishing 13th at 33/1 in the 2018 Albert Bartlett, Paisley Park transformed into a winning machine.
All he needed was a bit of time and starting from a handicap mark of 140 saw him ease his way through the grades in his second season over hurdles. That, and largely being able to run on better ground conditions in the relatively dry winter of 2018-19, helped him go five from five for the season.
Emma Lavelle started him off at Aintree at the end of October where two flights in the home straight were omitted due to low sun. Run over 2m4f on good ground, even though this was a handicap from a mark of 140 perhaps it’s worth remembering that Paisley Park comfortably dealt with this relative test of speed without fuss.
Stepped up in trip to three miles at Haydock next time, he won again off a rating of 147, and that was the first hint of his staying prowess given he was so strong at the finish.
Then came his first Grade One victory in the Long Walk at Ascot, where he coped with soft ground and the step up in class to beat West Approach by two lengths – a fantastic win, but still not one that marked him out as an outstanding candidate for the Stayers’ Hurdle.
That came on his next start, where he obliterated the Cleeve Hurdle field by 12 lengths, West Approach again the runner-up. Not only was he ultra-impressive but he answered the Cheltenham question mark, still hanging over him after his Albert Bartlett reverse, emphatically.
Sent off at 11/8 for the 2019 Stayers’ Hurdle, he didn’t disappoint, drawing away from his field up the hill despite a mistake at the last. Cheltenham had found a new champion.
The winning run continued into the 2019-20 season, where he took his sequence of victories to seven from seven thanks to Grade Two wins in the Long Distance Hurdle and the Cleeve again.
Looking imperious, he was sent off 4/6 favourite for the 2020 Stayers’.
The problem / The comeback
Going for eight wins in a row and a second consecutive Stayers’ Hurdle crown, Paisley Park flopped spectacularly at Cheltenham, finishing over 14 lengths off the winner, Lisnagar Oscar, in seventh.
A heart irregularity was detected in the aftermath, not ideal, obviously, but some relief to connections that there was a physical abnormality that excused his Festival run – and one that could be fixed if all went well.
Just over nine months later, in November 2020, he faced his first test since the problem surfaced in the Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury, on ideal good ground, and he put in a really encouraging run, finishing his race off with relish to be second, a length-and-a-half off the winner, Thyme Hill.
Having given Thyme Hill 3lb, Paisley Park came out the best horse at the weights and Lavelle couldn’t have been happier afterwards. The lack of a strong gallop worked against her horse, she argued, while being adamant he would come on for the run.
Which he did, when reversing the form with Thyme Hill in a fabulous renewal of the Grade One Porsche Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot on December 19.
It wasn’t easy, Roksana going up his inside on the turn for home seeing Paisley Park shuffled back towards the rear of the pack, but they went hard from a good way out and that suited the former champion.
Thyme Hill traded at 1.07 in-running as he led after the last with Paisley Park still having plenty to do, but Aidan Coleman had got him motoring by now and he got there by a neck at the line, much to the relief of the jockey who was unnecessarily hard on himself in a TV interview immediately afterwards.
The comeback complete, the next target for Paisley Park is regaining his Stayers’ Hurdle crown. He’ll go there via the familiar prep race of the Cleeve and he goes into Trials Day as the bookies’ clear favourite for further Cheltenham Festival success.
The main threats
Thyme Hill. It’s 1-1 between the pair so far this season and Philip Hobbs’ horse is the chief threat to Lavelle’s stable star.
The furthest he has ever been beaten by any horse in any race is two-and-a-half lengths by Envoi Allen in the Champion Bumper and, with two years on Paisley Park, he doesn’t have the battle scars that that horse carries.
Indeed, Thyme Hill has still only had six hurdles starts and he’s improved with every single run of his career. There is still room for improvement, too, as he could settle better and he looks versatile regarding ground and tactics.
Sire Du Berlais. Twice a winner of the Pertemps Final over the same course and distance that is the Cheltenham Festival new course, Sire Du Berlais has that all-important Festival form.
Having been a handicap project for a couple of years, it’s only now he’s been unleashed into conditions races but he landed the Grade 2 Lismullen Hurdle nicely at Navan in November and ran well in third despite being inconvenienced by the lack of a strong gallop in the Grade 1 Leopardstown Christmas Hurdle.
He looked the horse to take out of that race with Cheltenham in mind and looks the most fearsome of the Irish contingent.
Roksana. Beaten two lengths by Paisley Park and a bit less than that by Thyme Hill in the Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot, Roksana boosted that form with an emphatic win in the Grade 2 Matchbook Betting Podcast Mares’ Hurdle at the same track on Saturday (January 23).
She looks an out-and-out three miler on several pieces of evidence – her head second to If The Cap Fits in the 2019 Liverpool Hurdle for starters and then all of her three starts this season, so the Stayers’ looks the right race for her ahead of the Mares’ Hurdle over 2m4f.
The 7lb mares’ allowance wasn’t enough to help her beat Paisley Park and Thyme Hill at Ascot, but she wasn’t beaten far and she’d be a dangerous rival considering the sex allowance if allowed to line-up in the Stayers’ at Cheltenham.
The odds (Sky Bet – correct at 1000 GMT 24/10/2021)
- Paisley Park – 10/3
- Thyme Hill – 7/2
- Sire Du Berlais – 9/1
- Roksana – 12/1
- Flooring Porter – 12/1
- McFabulous – 12/1
- Ronald Pump – 12/1
- Benie Des Dieux – 14/1
- Champ – 16/1
The Sporting Life Verdict – Ben Linfoot
It has been fantastic to see Paisley Park return to form this season.
After suffering a heart problem like that you always wonder if they’ll come back with the same level of ability and there is little doubt he has, as you don’t win a quality renewal of the Long Walk in the manner that he did without your ticker in full working order.
He deserves to be favourite following that victory but his market domination is rightly slim, in my view, as he simply doesn’t have an awful lot in hand in what looks a strong division.
I’m of the opinion that Thyme Hill can find even more improvement and that makes him a potent threat, while Sire Du Berlais and Roksana look in good nick themselves and both also boast Festival-winning form.
There are others, too, like McFabulous, who could still make up into a Staying Hurdle prospect if allowed to take his chance, while we’ve still to see which struggling chaser reverts to the smaller obstacles and throws their hat into the ring.
The Cleeve Hurdle could throw up something different although, with direct reference to the question, backers will be looking at that 100/30 and pondering how much juice is in those odds if Paisley Park wins the race for the third year running.
A fair bit could be the answer, but that still doesn’t make him a banker. It’s great to see him fit and firing, but the division just looks too hot to consider him must-bet material.
Published at 0830 GMT on 24/01/21
Is Paisley Park a Paddy Power Stayers' Hurdle banker? Send your thoughts in via twitter @SportingLife, Facebook or on email to racingfeedback@sportinglife.com and the best will appear here
YOUR VERDICTS
Lloyd Young: Hi, Is Paisley Park a banker for the festival? No.
I’ve been on Thyme Hill since I backed him in the bumper. He ran over an inadequate 2 miles with the choke out and still came 4th.
I’m sure if Richard Johnson was asked he’d have ridden a different race on the 2 times he’s been beaten. He was sandwiched going to the last in the Albert Bartlett and switched then hampered again. He should have won given a smooth passage and the body language of RJ told you he was ‘fuming’.
When he was ‘mugged’ by Paisley Park last time he hit the front too soon. The next time they meet Thyme Hill will ‘track’ Paisley Park and go at the same time. In effect, I consider Thyme Hill as an unbeaten horse and in my opinion it is he who is the ‘banker’.
Billy B: Paisley Park a banker? No. But THE banker of the Festival is in this race. Sire Du Berlais. His victories in the last two Pertemps Finals, run on the same day and over the same C&D as the Stayers, were both run in faster times. Last year he carried 2lbs more than the runners in the Stayers and won in 3 seconds faster time. Equivalent to 12 lengths ahead. He is not ground dependent, proven in big fields, and you can be sure Gordon Elliot will have him spot on for the Thursday of the Festival for the 3rd year running.
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