Ben Linfoot looks ahead to the Listed William Hill Doncaster Mile Stakes on Saturday, a race that has been the platform for Group 1 horses in recent years.
What’s the story?
The Flat is back. No debates about starting procedures in this world. Starting stalls ensure a level playing field, generally speaking, and 22 of them will fly open at Doncaster at 15:35 on Saturday for the annual cavalry charge that is the William Hill Lincoln.
That’s a great sight and an even better puzzle to try and solve, but it’s not the only highlight as the Turf season begins. There’s the Spring Mile consolation race, the Cammidge Trophy, the Brocklesby. Which Amo Racing flying machine takes your fancy this year?
But the race that has been the biggest pointer to early-season Group 1 contests in recent years has been the William Hill Doncaster Mile. A Listed race worth £60,000 all in, £34,000 to the winner, nothing out of the ordinary there, but an important stepping stone it has become.
Two years ago in the Doncaster Mile Charyn turned himself from a nearly horse to a now horse. Out he came from Paddington’s shadow as he romped home on Town Moor, before he rattled off three Group 1 wins as well as securing Sandown Group 2 success and two top-level seconds.
Last year we had Dancing Gemini, he too emerging from the shadows of City Of Troy and Charyn himself. He looked all set to ‘do a Charyn’ at one point, as he ran away with the Doncaster Mile, won the Sandown Group 2 and then he was beaten a neck in the Group 1 Lockinge Stakes, before his season petered out after that.
With the Doncaster Mile becoming a proven platform for success this year’s race has a strong look to it. There’s Docklands, last year’s Queen Anne winner. There’s Qirat, last year’s Sussex Stakes stunner. But both of those are older horses and we’re looking for an unexposed four-year-old like Charyn and Dancing Gemini before him.
Like Chancellor.
Why are things adding up for Chancellor?
Cheveley Park Stud could be set for a big spring as their Grangeclare West will bid for Randox Grand National success at Aintree, but the Flat is their bread and butter and Chancellor could be all set to come of age on the level in the next few months for trainers John and Thady Gosden.
As we make the transition from all-weather to turf racing some horses that have been racing on artificial surfaces in the winter will have a fitness edge on their rivals in the early part of the campaign and Chancellor looks a case in point.
Certainly, in the Doncaster Mile, he’s the only one of the market leaders with a recent run under his belt and only three of the 12 six-day entries have had an outing this calendar year, so he could well be at an advantage in the fitness stakes after four starts on the all-weather in the winter months.
Not only that but he improved significantly in the winter after wind surgery and being gelded, his efforts in Listed company at Kempton behind Holloway Boy and when winning at Southwell firmly hinting that he could be a horse to follow back on the grass.
He was only second in the Winter Derby at Lingfield over 10 furlongs last time, but he was beaten by a well-prepared filly in Sky Safari who was getting weight, and he looks better suited by a stronger gallop over a mile in any case.
Watching his Southwell win below, he still looks raw, wandering around a bit late on, but he does it so cosily that you have to think he could be a big player in good races back over a mile on the turf, particularly in the first part of the campaign before the three-year-olds get involved.
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Is he likely to improve again back on the turf?
This is the big question but the signs are good. He’s only had five turf runs in his life but his two victories were wide-margin ones at Doncaster, while he was 7/4 favourite for the Group 2 Champagne Stakes on Town Moor as a two-year-old before he broke through the starting stalls and was withdrawn.
As a three-year-old he ran in the Greenham behind Jonquil and in the King Charles II Stakes behind Cosmic Year, but he hasn’t raced on turf since Newmarket following his procedures, a six-month break and his recent all-weather campaign.
Jockey Rab Havlin, on board for all nine of his career runs, thinks the grass will help him, saying on Sky Sports Racing after his Listed BetMGM Tandridge Stakes win at Southwell on February 7: “He’s had wind surgery and mentally he’s still getting over that.
“I think turf racing will suit him better as on the all-weather everything is a big rush off the bridle. I don’t know what the plan is now but a bit of cut in the ground over a mile would see him at his most effective.”
The best two runs of Chancellor's life have come over a mile, both on the all-weather. He's unproven over that distance on turf - the furthest he's gone on grass is seven furlongs - and therein lies the key to his potential in the division, starting in the Doncaster Mile on Saturday.
Are we backing the Chancellor then, or what?
As you can tell I’m excited to see what he can do this weekend with a view to a potential Group 1 assault on the Lockinge or Queen Anne or both, but there is no antepost betting on those two races and there are a few things to consider for Saturday.
Firstly, he has a 3lb penalty for his Southwell Listed win, so he does have to give that amount away in weight to Group 1 winners in Docklands and Qirat.
Secondly there are showers in the forecast so let’s see what the ground is looking like later in the week.
Thirdly, with the above two factors in mind, he’s around 6/1 in the antepost market for Saturday’s race and at those odds I would rather make sure he’s declared first, as given it sounds like Docklands is definitely heading to South Yorkshire Chancellor’s price should hold up well in any case.
And, of course, Chancellor is different to Charyn in a key aspect - he doesn't have a bulk of solid Group 1 form to improve upon from the previous season. The highest level he has tried is at Group 3 and we simply don't know if he's any better than that as yet - but we could be about to find out.
If there is a Charyn lurking in this year’s Doncaster Mile, it could be Chancellor. After a somewhat stop-start career thus far, he retains all of his potential and he could be the one to hit the ground running as the Flat season begins in earnest this weekend.
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