Our team answer some of the key questions heading into the weekend's Curragh action and provide their 1-2-3 verdicts for the Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby.
Benvenuto Cellini is favourite to win the Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby? Should he be – and who is the pick of the O’Brien team?
David Ord: I think Benvenuto Cellini probably does deserve to be favourite. Things clearly didn’t go right for him in the Betfred Derby from the very start and Ryan Moore looked after him once his chance had gone. The forecast ground at the weekend will suit him much better and he could easily confirm the promise he showed in the Chester Vase. Christmas Day was a clear-cut winner at Epsom, but attritional conditions and a free-wheeling, positive ride showed him at his very best there. This is a different test and he’ll do well to draw the sting of the rest this time. I haven’t quite given up on Pierre Bonnard yet, but I am getting there. He fleetingly looked a player two out in the Derby and the form of his run in the Leopardstown Trial is stronger than it looked at the time. He could hit the frame but his season to date has been a little underwhelming.
Matt Brocklebank: Benvenuto Cellini was always likely to be favourite here having been punted into 3/1 for the Betfred Derby but I’m not convinced the much-talked-about sluggish start was the biggest contributory factor to his being beaten by nearly 30 lengths. Testing conditions didn’t look his bag at all and getting back on good ground this weekend looks the key for those keeping the faith, but Epsom winner Christmas Day is clearly a very strong stayer and he should be suited by the demands of the Curragh. Leopardstown Derby Trial winner Christmas Day looks to have at least matched Benvenuto’s best form now and I don’t think there will be much between the pair in a true and honestly-run race over 12 furlongs. Unlike Dave, I've drawn a line through Pierre Bonnard now but could live to regret it!
Nic Doggett: It’s easy to see why given his clear superiority at Chester, but that wasn’t the strongest of trials and Sunday’s race will be a much sterner examination of his stamina. I’m against him at 6/4. Christmas Day obviously had a harder race when winning the Derby, and I’d be a little concerned about quick ground for him, but if you watch his Dante run again he is coming back at the line having been outpaced, so I don’t think he needs it bottomless; he’s just not as quick as some in the yard, but that’s often no bad thing in this race. I actually like a different O’Brien horse – though it’s one trained by Donnacha: A Boy Named Susie. A wide draw and passive ride conspired to him having far too much to do when a never-nearer fourth in the Prix du Jockey Club last month, and I think he’s overpriced at 12/1 with this trip likely to bring about further improvement.
How big a player is Raaheeb?
David Ord: I think he has a real chance on Sunday. Yes, you can pick holes in the Sandown form, but he did well to win there after having been a handful through the preliminaries and difficult to load. But he was very strong up the hill for Rossa Ryan and it was interesting that Owen Burrows immediately suggested he’d swerve Epsom and wait for this. Connections have done just that. He’s the sort to improve physically and mentally throughout the season and we are nowhere near his ceiling just yet.
Matt Brocklebank: Like Dave this time, I'm hoping he's a massive player. Owen Burrows is proving to be a superb trainer and I felt for him and the Shadwell team after their three-year-old filly Touleen was rather stitched up in a rough race for the Coronation Stakes. This colt could be able to provide some compensation as he's looked the real deal in winning his maiden at Ascot last September and when following up on seasonal debut in Sandown's Group 3 Classic Trial - replay below. The bare form can be questioned (subsequent Dante second Action didn't run his race back in fourth) but the well-bred Raaheeb looks a powerful stayer who travels and I'm sure the brother to Baaeed and Hukum has some major days ahead of him.
Nic Doggett: He’s clearly very talented, and I've no doubt he will stay, but he’s still a work in progress, and the form of his Classic Trial win hasn’t been franked at all, so he is priced on potential and breeding more than anything else. His brothers Baaeed and Hukum were both brought along more steadily (first Group 1s not until their fifth and sixth starts), and I’ve also got ground reservations with him, and it sounds like his connections do too after he came back sore from his Classic Trial win on good going. Of his illustrious brothers, Baaeed acted on anything, but Hukum was kept away from quicker going by Raaheeb’s trainer Owen Burrows and it might be the same with his younger brother.
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Go on, let’s have your 1-2-3 for the Curragh Classic
David Ord: James J Braddock is clearly in the mix too, but he had a hard race at Epsom, on an afternoon when he was still very rough around the edges. So I’ll go for Benvenuto Cellini to beat Raaheeb with Pierre Bonnard third.
Matt Brocklebank: I'll go Raaheeb to take the step up the ladder in his stride and win, seeing off Epsom protagonists Christmas Day and James J Braddock, with Benvenuto Cellini failing to live up to the hype and coming unstuck again.
Nic Doggett: Easy - O’Brien, O’Brien, O’Brien. Surely that’s enough? Ok, fine, I'll go A Boy Named Susie, Christmas Day, James J Braddock.
How do you see Saturday’s Pretty Polly at this stage?
David Ord: I’m surprised Thundering On is available at 13/8 to be honest. She looked something out of the ordinary in the Betfred Oaks, cruising through the contest and settling it with an instant turn of foot. I find it hard to believe she won’t be as effective back to ten furlongs and she has plenty of improvement left in her. Estrange is a mare I have a lot of time for but unless the showers on Saturday turn out to be heavier than forecast, I don’t think he can muster the speed of the favourite. Of the rest, Venetian Lace can go well from the front, back to ten furlongs and on summer ground.
Matt Brocklebank: I was dead impressed by Thundering On at Epsom and there's a case to be made for her relishing the drop back to 10 furlongs, given the turn of foot she showed in the Oaks. If she 'recoils' in any way from that uber-effort on the Downs, One Look might be the each-way value. She hadn't been back in training all that long prior to her comeback by all accounts and she ran a very encouraging race over what looks an inadequate mile if that's the case. Her 10-furlong record reads very well and thing like the close third to Barnavara in October's Prix de l'Opera would give her realistic form claims here.
Nic Doggett: Interesting, isn’t it? Joseph O’Brien rightly points out that Thundering On’s dam Thundering Nights won this race, but she did so as a four-year-old in a very weak renewal. You could make a solid case for this race lacking strength in depth, especially amongst the rest of the three-year-olds, so it might be too hard to resist for connections, but I think it might not be the best fit. Estrange has an extremely strong book of form in Britain, and even her straightforward Carlisle win has been franked, so she’s a major player with this course likely to play to her strengths. She might have preferred slower ground, but I think she will get away with it and is the one to beat as a result. Like Matt, I feel One Look is a major player, too, with this race a target for some time, but her overall level of form is possibly a notch below (well held by Estrange on their British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes run in October).
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