Top Irish pundit Fran Berry takes a long-range look at next weekend's Irish Champions Festival, including his best antepost bet.
Champion Stakes to savour
Irish Champions Festival is a feast of quality racing all weekend and it's a meeting I really look forward to every year.
Aidan O'Brien obviously pulled one out of the fire when he got Luxembourg back to win the Royal Bahrain Irish Champion Stakes, after an OK return to action following a long layoff, last year and he'll need to do something pretty special to get the real Auguste Rodin to stand up this time around.
For punters, I'm not sure how you could back the horse following his run in the King George. If you go back to his Derby run, he was possibly good value for beating King Of Steel half a length on the day and that was clearly the real deal, having been well beaten in the 2000 Guineas beforehand.
To be fair to him, his two bad runs this year have come on bad ground but he won on testing ground last season so it's hard to marry that all up. Some people are suggesting he may be better on home soil but he won a Group 1 in Doncaster as a juvenile and the Derby obviously too, so he's just a hard one to weigh up.
For me, it'll definitely come down to how he looks in the parade ring. He should get his optimum conditions with plenty of warm weather in the forecast and I don't see the first start over 10 furlongs being a problem at all, but as a punting prospect I can't really have him unless I'm very taken with how he looks in the preliminaries.
King Of Steel is another trying the trip for the first time and you can certainly see the angle with him dropping back to 10 furlongs.
Barring the quick turnaround when well beaten by Auguste Rodin at Doncaster as a two-year-old last October, his record is nearly flawless and I've seen some videos of him doing the rounds this week and been impressed with how well he looks.
He travelled like the winner for most of the way in the King George last time and his Royal Ascot form with Continuous received a nice boost at York last week too. He continues to improve so there are reasons to be positive.
The big factor which may be a little bit overlooked is one we see year in, year out at Leopardstown and that is the challenge facing jockeys who aren't quite so familiar with the place.
Kevin Stott is a really good jockey who has had a fantastic season but we've seen numerous top-class jockeys from the likes of Daryll Holland, to Christophe Soumillon and Gregory Benoit, who have come to Leopardstown and met traffic problems. It's a track that takes a lot of knowing and local advantage can be huge around there in an Irish Champion Stakes.
Luxembourg stayed on well to beat Onesto in this 12 months ago but with the exception of the Tattersalls Gold Cup, when he got an extremely good ride on the front end, we've not seen anything quite on the same level this season. Maybe he could be more of an autumn horse and that best performance has come on that track, which would be the positives for him.
The market will be interesting when it comes to Auguste Rodin and Luxembourg on the day.
Bay Bridge is a possible runner if conditions are suitable and Al Riffa is an intended starter, while Onesto is back for another crack at it.
Onesto was initially put in around 10/1 but his antepost price has crashed a bit which is unfortunate. He ran well here last year, keeping on well late in the day, and he ran an eye-catching race over a mile behind Inspiral recently.
Running at a mile in Group 1 company was always going to be tough after a long layoff but he's obviously done well for the break after going to Tokyo last winter. Sometimes it takes a long time to get over that sort of trip so it's fair to suggest the best could yet be to come from Onesto this year.
He's right in with the best of these on the pick of his form and improved a lot for his first run back last year so looks a big danger to everything.
Owen Burrows has confirmed Alflaila will be supplemented into the race and he's a progressive horse who reminds me a little bit of Decorated Knight who won the Irish Champion Stakes a few years ago.
This four-year-old is open to more improvement and, with a lot of question marks over some of the others, Alflaila has a lot going for him.
King Of Steel could be vulnerable on fast ground over 10 furlongs and August Rodin could bomb out again, while Al Riffa's best form has come on softer ground and Luxembourg may not be the same horse as last year. So you can see why Shadwell are taking a punt and you can see him running a huge race with conditions to suit.
On balance, Onesto would be the selection at this stage but pre-race paddock watching will be key with both of the Ballydoyle pair and I've got plenty of respect for Alflaila as well.
Sprint stars meet again
The Al Basti Equiworld, Dubai Flying Five Stakes at this point looks like a bit of a rematch from the Nunthorpe and it'll be great to see the main protagonists come over for the race, which has really come to the fore since being upgraded to Group 1 status.
All things being equal, you'd imagine Bradsell might be able to turn the tables on Highfield Princess from York. Archie Watson's horse got the better of the argument in the King's Stand at Royal Ascot and I do think this stiffer finish will play more to his strengths than at York.
Art Power is four from four at the Curragh and an amazing sprinter so you'd have massive respect for him, while Bouttemont is a really interesting contender from France. He comes into it a little under the radar and you could see him in contention.
But if you take Living The Dream out of the Nunthorpe (replay below), the form really stacks up and I'd fancy Bradsell to get the better of the mare.
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Top two-year-olds in action
We won't dwell too much on the juveniles this far in advance but City Of Troy in the Goffs Vincent O'Brien National Stakes is obviously hugely exciting and Ylang Ylang in the Moyglare Stud Stakes has been flawless to date.
Her biggest danger may well be the sponsors' once-raced maiden Red Viburnum, who was a major talking horse ahead of her debut at the Curragh last month and was only really beaten through inexperience.
Trained by Dermot Weld, she's a daughter of Frankel who was beaten just half a length in third and in second that day was Aidan O'Brien's Opera Singer who came out to win the Group 3 at the Curragh the other day by six and a half lengths.
Simple task for Tahiyra?
Sticking with the Weld team, you'd imagine his Tahiyra would give us a very fair guide as to how good the three-year-old fillies are this year when she meets her elders for the first time in the Coolmore America 'Justify' Matron Stakes.
The form of her Ascot win has taken a couple of knocks since then but Inspiral isn't going to be turning up here and she might end up being a very short price.
Zarinsk has been well placed this year and she has a good record around Leopardstown but she has other options too and this looks all about Tahiyra to me at this point.
Staying power in Irish St Leger
All eyes will be on Kyprios if he turns up in the Comer Group International Irish St. Leger after his layoff but the vibes do suggest he may well need a run.
Hamish was second last year and Yibir hasn't been over-raced this season so they both have decent chances against whatever Ballydoyle decide to run.
If Kyprios is going to take a run before he hits his peak again, it could be worth keeping an eye on how he fares and if he shapes well then swiftly back him for the British Champions Long Distance Cup at Ascot. He's 6/1 for the Champions Day race so maybe that's the angle to take with this year's Irish St. Leger.
Handicap heroes
The two handicaps at Leopardstown on the Saturday will be extremely deep and are always very competitive.
Readers with a decent memory may recalled I backed Alexandroupolis for the Derby after a striking maiden win at Galway last September and while he hasn't come up to the required level this season, he made an eyecatching comeback last Friday.
With his profile, were he to run in the 1m5f 'Petingo' Handicap off a mark of 101, he could be a standout in this field.
At the other end of the age scale, David O'Meara's likeable older handicapper Rhoscolyn could be one to note if turning up in the 'Sovereign Path' Handicap over seven furlongs.
He was tough when winning at Goodwood last time and was a slightly unlucky fifth in this Leopardstown race last year. Despite winning a couple of times in August, he'd be returning to Ireland off a 7lb lower mark and would appreciate a spot of rain were it to materialise.
Bet of the weekend
As for a best antepost bet, I'm very keen on the claims of Al Aasy in the Group 3 Paddy Power Stakes on the Saturday.
He's definitely worth a play as he looks to have turned a corner in recent months and those just behind him in the long-rang market don't appear certain to be running.
William Haggas's horse looks more like a 7/4 shot than an 11/4 chance to me so he's got to be a bet.
The only one of Aidan O'Brien's I'd be a bit worried about is Adelaide River, but his plans are apparently just a little bit up in the air at the moment so he's not a certain runner by any means.
Published at 0920 BST on 03/09/23
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