Irish Angle: Donn McClean previews the Randox Health Grand National

Just the first six, the editor said. Give us the first six home in the Grand National.

Easy peasy, he said.

Anibale Fly is on the list for sure. The going will be soft to tough today, but we had an idea on Wednesday that that would be the case, and it doesn’t alter Anibale Fly’s prospects of winning the great race. It may be that every 1lb will count for more than your average 1lb among the high weights, but it may also mean that class will come to the fore, and JP McManus’ horse has bags of that.

Second in a Drinmore Chase and in a Growise Chase as a novice, an impressive winner of a Paddy Power Chase this season, third in the Gold Cup. That’s all class. And he is 9lb well-in.

There is the worry about his Gold Cup exertions, that maybe he will not have had sufficient time to recover, but he finished off his race well at Cheltenham, and trainer Tony Martin reports him in to be in good form. If he hadn’t been in good form, he wouldn’t have travelled.

He stays three and a quarter miles well, there is every chance that he will stay four and a quarter, he is only eight and could still be progressing as a staying chaser, he goes well on soft ground and he will have Barry Geraghty for company. He is on top of the list.

Alpha Des Obeaux is also on the list. Like Anibale Fly, the Gigginstown House horse is an eight-year-old who has the potential to progress further over staying trips. Second in the Stayers’ Hurdle, he probably would have finished second in the Sefton Hurdle at Aintree as a novice had he not come down at the final flight.

The Mouse Morris-trained gelding ran in the Munster National on his debut this season, and he ran a cracker to finish second to Total Recall, who won the Ladbrokes Trophy next time off an 18lb higher mark. Alpha Des Obeaux meets Willie Mullins’ horse on 17lb better terms today, and he is three times his price.

He put up a big performance to win the Grade 2 Clonmel Oil Chase in November over an inadequate two and a half miles, when he had A Toi Phil and Balko Des Flos behind him in second and third, and he has been running in Grade 1 and Grade 2 races since.

Mouse Morris produced Rule The World at concert pitch to win the National two years ago, and it is probable that he has been planning Alpha Des Obeaux’s route to Aintree for a little while.

You have to have Total Recall on the list too. The Slaneyville Syndicate’s horse is a seriously improved horse this season for Willie Mullins. He made light of that 18lb hike when he went to Newbury and won the Ladbrokes Trophy, and he was running a big race in the Gold Cup when he came down at the third last fence.

It is impossible to know how he would have fared had he not come down, but he may not have finished that far behind Anibale Fly, and he meets him on 3lb better terms today. Also, he was spared a very hard race in the Gold Cup, and it was probably the Grand National more than the Gold Cup that his trainer has been targeting all season.

The ground has come in favour of both Baie Des Iles and Raz De Maree, both at opposite ends of the age spectrum, respectively the youngest and joint oldest horses in the race.

Baie Des Iles may be only seven, but she is an unusual seven-year-old, she is more experienced than your average seven-year-old.

Ross O’Sullivan’s mare finished sixth in the Irish Grand National as a five-year-old two years ago, and she won the Punchestown Grand National Trial over three and a half miles as a six-year-old last year off a mark of 141. She is just 4lb higher today.

She finished third in the Punchestown race this year, beaten by Folsom Blue and Isleofhopendreams, and those two went on to finish fourth and second respectively in the Irish Grand National.

Folsom Blue and Isleofhopendreams are now rated, respectively, 11lb and 8lb higher than they were then. Also, fourth in the Punchestown race was Space Cadet, who went on to finish second in the Leinster National and who is now rated 4lb higher than he was at Punchestown. Baie Des Iles races today off her Punchestown mark of 145, and she has a lovely racing weight of 10st 8lb.

It may be a long time since a mare won the National, and it may be even longer since a seven-year-old won the National, but the race is changing, you can’t put a line through the young horses any more. And wouldn’t it be some story: a grey mare, ridden by Katie Walsh, trained by the rider’s husband.

Raz De Maree would also be a great story. Gavin Cromwell’s horse is 13 now, and a 13-year-old hasn’t won the race since 1923, but he was also 13 when he won the Welsh National in January. He races off a 6lb higher mark today, but it would be difficult to argue that he wouldn’t have won the Chepstow race with another 6lb on his back.

He jumped the first five fences well in the Grand National last year before he had to jink to avoid a fallen rival at Becher’s first time and lost his rider. He will relish conditions, and he has a top horseman and a Grand National-winning rider on his side in Robbie Power.

Tiger Roll could also go well. The ground is a worry, but the ground was a worry before Cheltenham too, before he danced in in the Cross-Country Chase. A Triumph Hurdle winner, a Munster National winner and a National Hunt Chase winner, Gordon Elliott’s horse is still only eight, and he was very impressive at Cheltenham. And remember, the trainer ran Silver Birch in the Cross-Country Chase at Cheltenham in 2007 before he send him to Aintree to win the Grand National.

Irish-trained horses could hardly fill the first six places, could they? Hardly, but there are 16 of them in the race now. Also, Irish-trained horses finished first, second and fourth in 2006, and they finished first, third, fourth, fifth, sixth and eighth in 2016.

You never know. It is a race for stories.

1. Anibale Fly
2. Alpha Des Obeaux
3. Total Recall
4. Baie Des Iles
5. Raz De Maree
6. Tiger Roll

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