Irish Angle: Donn McClean previews the QIPCO 1000 Guineas at Newmarket
Donn McClean looks ahead to the QIPCO 1000 Guineas and fancies the O'Brien family to be toasting more Classic success.
When Aidan O’Brien sent out Virginia Waters to win the QIPCO 1000 Guineas in 2005, he became the first Irish trainer to win the race since the Tommy Stack-trained Las Meninas got up in the final strides under John Reid to beat Balanchine by a short head in a memorable renewal in 1994.
Since then, Irish-trained fillies have fared well in the fillies’ Classic. Jim Bolger has won it with Finsceal Beo and David Wachman has won it with Legatissimo, and Aidan O’Brien has won it with Homecoming Queen and with Minding and with Winter.
Fresh from the victory of Magna Grecia in the 2000 Guineas yesterday, Aidan O’Brien fields a four-strong team today in his bid to land the second of the Newmarket Classics.
The pick of the quartet according to the market and according to jockey bookings is Just Wonderful. Winner of the Group 3 Flame Of Tara Stakes over a mile at The Curragh last September, the Dansili filly proved that she could operate at Newmarket when she landed the Group 2 Rockfel Stakes over seven furlongs of the Rowley Mile four weeks later.
She was impressive in winning that day, she showed a nice turn of foot to come clear of last month’s Fred Darling Stakes winner Dandhu and, out of Wading, herself also a Rockfel Stakes winner and a sister to Irish Oaks and Ribblesdale Stakes winner Bracelet from the family of Galileo and Sea The Stars, she should appreciate the step back up to a mile.
You can easily allow her her run in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf at Churchill Downs last November, and it is obviously a positive that Ryan Moore has chosen to ride her.
Interestingly, however, on the three occasions on which Aidan O’Brien has won the 1000 Guineas when he has had more than one representative in the race, only once was the winner the Ballydoyle number one. So don’t go discounting the chances of Fairyland or Fleeting or Hermosa on the basis that they are not the stable’s selected.
Skitter Scatter is a fascinating contender. The Rogers’ filly was one of the stars who lit up the 2018 Irish Flat season. Expertly campaigned by Patrick Prendergast through the season, the Scat Daddy filly won the Group 3 Silver Flash Stakes and the Group 2 Debutante Stakes and the Group 1 Moyglare Stud Stakes. She may be pint-sized, but she has the heart of a lion.
Prendergast has since joined forces with John Oxx, pooled resources, so it is under the Currabeg trainer’s name that she races today. It is 10 years this weekend since Oxx won the 2000 Guineas with Sea The Stars, and it would be some story if he could land the 1000 Guineas today with this filly. She is the pick on juvenile form and, in Ronan Whelan she has a hugely talented rider who knows the filly well.
It would also be some story if Lady Kaya could win today for Sheila Lavery and Robbie Colgan. The Dandy Man filly was a 33/1 shot when she made her racecourse debut at The Curragh last June, but she progressed through her season last year. She finished second to Skitter Scatter in the Moyglare Stud Stakes on her final run last year in Ireland, before running creditably in the Cheveley Park Stakes.
She was impressive in winning the 1000 Guineas Trial at Leopardstown on her debut this season. She made most of the running, and she finished off her race strongly to get home by more than two lengths.
The step up to a mile is a little bit of a concern today, but the fact that she saw out seven furlongs well in the Guineas Trial is a positive in that regard.
By contrast, the step back up to a mile is almost certainly a positive for Iridessa. Joseph O’Brien’s filly sprang a mild surprise when she won the Fillies’ Mile at Newmarket last October. She had to be brave to go through a narrow enough gap that day between Pretty Pollyanna and Hermosa and, once in the clear, she was strong all the way to the line.
She was beaten by Lady Kaya in that 1000 Guineas Trial at Leopardstown last month, but she ran a highly encouraging race in defeat. She was conceding 3lb to all her rivals that day, and she was drawn wide, she was wider than ideal around the home turn. Even so, she showed a nice turn of foot to move off after the leader at the furlong pole before her run flattened out, and she was ultimately overhauled by Happen for the runner-up spot.
She had to do a lot of running to manoeuvre herself into a challenging position that day, so it was not surprising that her run flattened out. Also, that was her first run since October. It is probable that the run will bring her forward with today’s race in mind.
A daughter of Derby winner Ruler Of The World and with plenty of stamina in her pedigree, she should improve for the step back up to a mile today. She is one for one over the course and distance, so we know that she can handle Newmarket well, and the fact that the trainer’s brother, yesterday’s 2000 Guineas hero, Donnacha O’Brien takes the ride is an obvious positive.
The 1000 Guineas was one of the two British Classics to elude Joseph O’Brien as a rider, but there is a chance that, today, in Iridessa, he has a filly with whom he can win it as a trainer.
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