Jake Pearson looks ahead to a couple of informative races at Gulfstream Park this weekend in the latest International Angle.
Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) – Gulfstream Park – 02/03/2019
(The Fountain of Youth Stakes is worth 50 Kentucky Derby entry points for the winner, 20 for second, 10 for third and 5 for fourth)
The Fav
Hidden Scroll currently resides as the third favourite for this year’s Kentucky Derby. He is available to back at a biggest price of 14/1. All of his challengers on Saturday sit below him in the betting. Based on this fact alone it makes sense that he is the favourite to win this prep race at Gulfstream.
Racing, however, is not black and white and there is certainly room for a little vulnerability. The William Mott-trained colt earned his Derby quote on the back of an impressive 14-length debut win that had US speed figure purists salivating all over their copies of the Daily Racing Form. He recorded a 104 Beyer Speed Figure, a 119 TimeformUS Speed Figure and a 115 Equibase Speed Figure. Now, to the majority of people these will seem like irrelevant, variable and untrustworthy ratings, but over in the States they take this stuff very seriously and this horse’s figures have been making waves.
Having said all this, the son of Hard Spun has only won one race and a maiden at that. There have been a number of debut maiden winners this term that have initially looked to be the real deal – Coliseum comes to mind – before crashing and burning when asked to take the step up.
It is assumed that Hidden Scroll will try to make all on Saturday but as he has only had one outing, it would be wrong to pigeonhole him as a front-runner. It will be interesting to see how Joel Rosario approaches this race with a number of quick horses in the mix.
Ultimately, Hidden Scroll has the joint highest speed figures in the race and the most impressive past performance. He has enough going for him to be a worthy favourite. However, the fact remains that he still has just the one run under his belt and at a shade of odds-on, he does seem a bit on the short side.
The Challengers
The only other horse in the race to achieve a Timeform US Speed Figure of 119 is Vekoma. He attained that rating last time out when he triumphed in the Grade 3 Nashua Stakes at Aqueduct. The form from that race has worked out pretty nicely as well with the runner-up Network Effect since stepping up to Grade 2 company in the Remsen Stakes, where he again finished runner-up.
Similarly to Hidden Scroll, George Weaver’s colt won nicely on debut in a maiden; albeit with a lower set of speed figures. However, the positive with this son of Candy Ride is the fact that he has already rubbed shoulders with some of the country’s better three-year-olds and has come out on top. Experience often counts for more than potential in these prep races and a case can certainly be made for Vekoma toppling this slightly susceptible jolly.
Signalman already has 18 Derby qualifier points to his name and, like Vekoma, is around the 20/1 mark for this year’s first Triple Crown race. Kenneth McPeek’s colt in undoubtedly the most experienced in the race with five runs in his juvenile year. These included a Breeders’ Cup Juvenile third place followed by a victory in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club.
Again, experience is the key here. This colt has already proven his quality at the highest level and McPeek was quoted earlier this week saying "I’m pretty confident going over there".
Signalman should be one of the main players in this year’s Derby but whether he’ll be at full fitness on Saturday is a bit of a question mark. Connections could effectively use this race as something of a breeze for their horse as it is his first outing of the season.
The Outsiders
Global Campaign is currently amidst his first campaign. This son of Curlin didn’t race as a juvenile and started his life on the track with a debut win earlier this year. He is lacking in experience but then so was a certain Justify - who also wasn’t campaigned as a juvenile - and he turned out alright. Maybe the comparisons are only really justified (no pun intended) due to the two horses both belonging to the WinStar Farm, but Global Campaign’s two runs have been impressive and he does have previous over this track.
Last time out Everfast defied odds of 80/1 to finish runner-up in the Grade 2 Holy Bull Stakes over this course and distance. Dale Romas’ colt finished sandwiched between Harvey Wallbanger and Maximus Mischief. Both of these horses have been available at around 20/1 for this year’s Derby yet Everlast, who finished a length behind the former and a length in front of the latter, can be backed at bigger than 20s not for the Derby, but for Saturday’s prep race. That seems like value.
Verdict
It is quite possible that Hidden Scroll will assert his dominance over this field and romp to another impressive victory. However, at such a short price it is probably worth taking him on and the horse that stands out is EVERFAST. This horse has experience, proven ability and is available at an appetising price. Even as an each-way play he represents good value.
Davola Dale Stakes (G2) – Gulfstream Park – 02/03/2019
(The Davola Dale Stakes is worth 50 Kentucky Oaks entry points for the winner, 20 for second, 10 for third and 5 for fourth)
The Fav
Last month we saw the current Oaks favourite Bellafina dig deep to hold off the challenge of Enaya Alrabb in the Las Virgenes Stakes at Santa Anita. Despite getting the job done and recording another win that run did not inspire a whole lot of confidence going forward and has left the door open for Jaywalk to claim favouritism for this year’s Kentucky Oaks.
If she is to do so then she will need to dispose of this field in as convincing a manner as possible and if the current odds are anything to go by then that is very much what she is expected to do. Last year’s champion filly is long odds-on to take the spoils here and with good reason.
She ended last season with victory in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies' making it four wins on the spin. This is her first outing of the season and a potential rustiness is the only possible theory as to why she will not win, but that would be seriously clutching at straws. It is nigh on impossible to envisage anything other than a Jaywalk victory but realistically, she cannot be backed at such a short price.
The Challenger
Second in in the betting is Victoria Oliver’s filly High Regard, a somewhat presumptuous name considering this three-year-old is regarded pretty averagely. That may be being a little harsh but in comparison to the achievements of the race favourite, this daughter of Will Take Charge has accomplished relatively little. She broke her maiden at the second time of asking but has finished third twice since then including last time out in the Grade 2 Golden Rod Stakes.
This race looks like a relatively easy way to pick up some qualifying points and she would not have to be overly impressive to get her hands on a few in this company.
The Outsiders
Cookie Dough is looking to make this three wins in a row after two victories at this track last year. They were both in much lower grade races however and this is a huge step up.
Another Time has had the benefit of a run this year as she finished third in a black type event at Tampa Bay back in January. Despite two victories before that it is difficult to see her mounting much of a challenge.
The Canadian bred Bold Script is a little more interesting considering her third place finish in the Grade 1 Natalma Stakes. She followed that up with a second and then a first in black type events. She recorded some respectable speed figures for those runs and maybe in with a shot at some place money here.
Verdict
It would be a fool's errand to look for something to beat JAYWALK here. This should be a comfortable victory and an easy 50 Oaks qualifying points for the John Servis-trained filly.
As far as place money is concerned it may be worth siding with the Canadian import Bold Script. She has shown sparks of quality at Woodbine in the past and could pick herself up some Oaks points by being the best of a bad bunch.
