This weekend sees Fair Grounds take centre stage as it hosts the first round of its Kentucky Derby and Oaks trials.
We also have the return of two-time Breeders’ Cup Sprint champion Roy H in the Palos Verdes at Santa Anita.
Lecomte Stakes (G3) – Fair Grounds 19/01/19, Kentucky Derby Prep Race
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Saturday sees Fair Grounds host the first of its three Kentucky Derby prep races and at first glance it could well be the weakest of the trio.
Despite a potential full field of 14, this race boasts no previous stakes winner in its ranks and it's difficult to see a real Derby contender emerging from the pack. In fact, none of the declared runners are even quoted for the first race in the Triple Crown series.
That, however, does not mean that it is not a good betting prospect. The current favourite is as big as 4/1 and arguments can be made for a lot of horses in this field. And who knows, maybe one runner will put in a formidable performance and throw their name into the Kentucky hat. This race is worth 10 qualifying points to the winner.
The obvious place to start is with the current market leader Plus Que Parfait. This Brandon Walsh colt narrowly broke his duck at Keeneland earlier this year before being pipped to first in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club by Signalman. That was no disgrace as that performance, alongside his Breeders’ Cup Juvenile third, earned Signalman quotes of 20/1 with Sky Bet for this year’s Derby.
The son of Point Of Entry certainly has a lot of things going for him and could progress into a very nice racehorse, but he is currently lacking in big-race experience and he may find one or two in this field a little too savvy at this stage of his career.
Next in is last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile fourth Mr. Money. The Bret Calhoun colt could consider himself a little unlucky at Churchill Downs as he stumbled in the race’s early stages. He still managed to rally and finish ahead of two since Kentucky Derby prep winners in Gunmetal Grey and Mind Control.
Running in a race like the Juvenile should have really helped bring on this horse and the fact that trainer Calhoun is based at Fair Grounds throughout the winter, the son of Goldencents should really have no excuse for not putting in a strong performance, and adding to the two Derby entry points he has already acquired.
War Of Will is also worth a mention and is definitely a popular choice in America. Mark Casse’s runner has competed in some high graded races in his short career, finishing second in the Grade 1 Woodbine Summer and fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf.
The three-year-old has certainly kept some illustrious company in his recent outings but a slight concern would be his lack of dirt experience. His only other start off the turf came at Churchill Downs, and although he broke his maiden that day the race was originally scheduled for the grass, which would suggest he has never shown any natural affinity towards the dirt and would much prefer turf.
The Lecomte Stakes is worth 10 Kentucky Derby entry points for the winner, 4 for second, 2 for third and 1 for fourth.
Silverbulletday Stakes – Fair Grounds 19/01/19, Kentucky Oaks Prep Race
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In contrast to the Lecomte, the Silverbulletday Stakes has only attracted seven entrants, and one of those was a last minute scramble. Race favourite Liora was initially intended to be trained for the Rachel Alexandra Stakes in February but when trainer Wayne Catalano realised just how impressive her recent work at home had been, he dashed off to get her a place in this first Fair Grounds Oaks prep race.
Liora was a shock winner last time out as she held off Restless Rider to win the Grade 2 Golden Rod Stakes at odds of around 28/1 to make it two wins on the bounce.
Catalano’s filly is the only horse in the race to have earned an Oaks quote and should she claim the Silverbulletday Stakes on Saturday you can bet she won’t be 14/1 for much longer.
Second in the betting and vying for favouritism with Liora is the Maryland filly Needs Supervision. She is making her stakes debut here and looking to make it three wins on the bounce after an impressive five-length victory last time out. Much like Liora her most recent victory came as something of a surprise given her starting price of 37/1 in the US.
Jeremiah O'Dwyer’s three-year-old certainly has potential but is a little too near the top of the market considering this is her first race of any real note. A more attractive betting prospect would be Douglas Scharbauer's Cowgirls Like Us. Currently available at an appetising price of 9/1, this Bret Calhoun trained filly is the most experienced horse in the field and is looking to make it four consecutive wins on Saturday. This horse knows how to win and that is sometimes more valuable than people tend to remember in races containing talented but naïve fillies.
The Silverbulletday Stakes is worth 10 Kentucky Oaks entry points for the winner, 4 for second, 2 for third and 1 for fourth.
Palos Verdes (G2) - Santa Anita 19/01/19
This year’s renewal of the Palos Verdes at Santa Anita is not particularly interesting from a betting point of view, unless you are partial to a short priced favourite. It is, however, interesting from the point of view of antepost clue-hunters and fans of fast, quality racehorses. The reason for that is because it sees the seasonal debut of two time Breeders’ Cup Sprint champion Roy H.
The now sever-year-old has been the cream of the crop as far as six furlongs is concerned and trainer Peter Miller will be hoping that the reigning Male Sprint Eclipse Champion can kick this season off with a flyer as he looks to win an unprecedented third consecutive Breeders’ Cup Sprint.
Just as it did last year, connections will be looking to this race as a step towards the Dubai Golden Shaheen in March - where Roy H finish third in 2018. The Rockingham Ranch-owned sprinter currently heads the market at as short a price as 5/2, however, it is difficult to see this race affecting that price an awful lot. This should be a breeze for Roy H. He is expected to win and win comfortably. The only bearing that this race will realistically have on him winning the Meydan race is if he were to lose.
If you are looking to back against the favourite – which is ill-advised on this occasion – then you might be looking at 2017 Palos Verdes victor St. Joe Bay. The issue with this horse unfortunately is that while he may have won the renewal of this race two years ago, he had only won one race since - his last outing at Los Alamitos.
Kanthaka won the Grade 3 Laz Barrera stakes in early December before finishing down the field in the Grade 1 Malibu at Santa Anita. Jerry Hollendorfer's colt has ability but she is dropping back to six furlongs for the first time since late 2017 and her speed must be called into question.
Alongside Kanthaka Hollendorfer also saddles Oakland Stakes third Awesome Anywhere. This is only the five-year-old’s second stakes start and it is difficult to make any sort of case for this Awesome Of Course gelding.
