International Angle: Jake Pearson previews the USA racing including the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park
Jake Pearson looks for Kentucky Derby clues in his latest International Angle as two divisions of the Rebel Stakes are set to be run at Oaklawn Park on Saturday night.
Rebel Stakes (G2) – Oaklawn Park – 16/03/2019
(37.5 Kentucky Derby entry points for first, 15 for second, 7.5 for third and 3.75 for fourth)
There is just the one Kentucky Derby prep scheduled for this weekend…or so we thought. Because of the closure of Santa Anita, this weekend’s Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park has attracted an unprecedented 19 entries.
To combat this, the race has been split into two divisions, each worth $750,000 apiece as well as a confusing points reward of 37.5 for first, 15 for second, 7.5 for third and 3.75 for fourth in each race.
Much was speculated about the meeting of the two Bob Baffert three-year-olds Improbable and Game Winner. They were scheduled to face each other first in the Santa Anita San Felipe, and then here in the Rebel.
Conveniently for Baffert, however, they have managed avoid each other after being placed in opposing races. It is a shame that these two will not take on each other but it does mean that we have probably the two best Derby preps of the season so far in terms of quality.
Rebel Stakes, First Division (Grade 2) – 21:57 Oaklawn Park
The Fav
Bob Baffert’s undefeated Improbable makes his first appearance of 2019 here after three wins from three runs in his juvenile campaign. The speed figures he recorded in his seven-length black type victory, as well as his five length Grade 1 Futurity win, are enough to suggest that this colt is the real deal.
This is a chance for the WinStar Farm starlet to show off his Derby credentials and stamp his name as a top contender. However, it is more likely that this has now become the perfect way for him to get some much needed entry points under his belt without being in top gear. Connections may feel that their horse could win this race at 90% - or at least finish high enough in the placings to earn himself a spot in this year’s The Run For The Roses – so it is difficult to imagine that he will be at peak fitness with the big day just 49 days away.
A second placed finish would take him into seventh on the total points standings but anything lower than that and there would be a serious doubt over him gaining entry at all. He needs to have trained on from his impressive two-year-old season and cannot afford to put in a lacklustre performance here. He is almost undeniably the best horse in the race but that does not necessarily mean he is the definite winner. He may need the run and jockey Drayden Van Dyke may not push him to his utmost limits. It is however, difficult to see him finishing out of the first three given what is at stake.
The Challengers
We must start with Galilean as the main threat to the favourite in this race. This colt is very highly regarded in the States, much more than in the UK. Testament to that is the fact that he can be backed at as big as 33/1 for the Derby with the majority of British bookmakers but when the last official US antepost odds were released, he was as short as 12/1.
Despite never before having competed in graded company, Jerry Hollendorfer’s colt has nevertheless recorded some outstanding victories and some mightily impressive speed figures to accompany them. His nine length romp in the King Glorious Stakes earned him a career high Equibase Speed Figure of 111 and while his 4 ½ length victory in the California Cup only returned an ESF of 101 and a slightly underwhelming Beyer Speed Figure of 89, he was sent off the 2/11 favourite and had the race won at a canter.
The son of Uncle Mo is more than capable of a minor upset on Saturday and could put down a real marker as a Triple Crown contender.
Long Range Toddy is the model of consistency and already has 16 Derby points to his name. Another placed finish in this race would all but secure his entry. He is not the flashiest horse by any means but he is rarely far away when the winning post approaches. The son of Take Charge Indy likes to sit on the early pace which could mean a battle between him and Galilean for initial supremacy.
It is unlikely that Steve Asmussen’s colt will have the ability to compete with some of the better horses in this field and maybe this is the race where he is found wanting just a little. You have to admire his courage and James Milner-style consistency, but this may be a step too far.
The Outsiders
Extra Hope will run into the formidable Improbable for the second time in his career here after finishing third to him at the back end of last year. He quickly put that behind him, though, as he dismantled a Santa Anita allowance contest by 3 1/4 lengths, posting an Equibase Speed Figure of 105.
He finished a good eight lengths behind Improbable when they last met but if the favourite isn’t up to it, don’t be surprised if that gap is closed a little on Saturday.
Easy Shot has already had two shots at Derby preps, finishing fifth in the Sham Stakes and third in the Robert B Lewin Stakes. Trainer Keith Desormeaux will be hoping that this is third time lucky for his three-year-old but this is arguably his toughest assignment so far and a place would be deemed an achievement.
Classy John is an interesting sort making the step up after running in black type events. He has been sent off odds-on in each of his last three starts, winning two. His latest run produced his career-best figures despite finishing runner-up. This is a big step up from black type races at Fair Grounds and Delta Downs.
Rebel Stakes, Second Division (Grade 2) – 23:06 Oaklawn Park
The Fav
Three Grade 1 victories including the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, unbeaten in four starts and Bob Baffert trained. Is this the most solid favourite ever? Well, quite the opposite actually. It is hard to remember when such an impressive colt has been perceived as so vulnerable by so many as Game Winner. The juvenile champion will likely go off odds-on on Saturday but the general consensus in America is that he is just not the horse he was last year.
He has not seen a racecourse in a competitive sense since his impressive win in the Juvenile last November and talk in the States is that his work throughout January and February was astonishingly below par.
2️⃣0️⃣1️⃣8️⃣ @BreedersCup Juvenile champ ✅
— World Horse Racing (@WHR) February 26, 2019
2️⃣0️⃣1️⃣9️⃣ @KentuckyDerby champ❓
GAME WINNER (outside) worked at @santaanitapark this week 🔥pic.twitter.com/eYz2dp6SXG
Much like Improbable, he may not need to be at the top of his game to walk away with this race, but unlike his stablemate, he already has 30 qualification points to his name thanks to his exploits last year. This all but guarantees him a spot in this year’s Derby which means connections really can use this race as a workout. It is unlikely he will be given a hard ride from Joel Rosario but he may not need a huge one as he is undoubtedly the stand out horse in the race.
The Challengers
Gunmetal Grey has already been around the block at the tender age of three. He has also twice faced Game Winner; and twice come off second best. The Jerry Hollendorfer colt already has 18 qualifying points to his name after winning the Sham Stakes and finishing runner-up in the Robert B Lewin Stakes.
This could be the son of Exchange Rate’s big chance to topple his rival at the third time of asking. He probably won’t get a better one.
Omaha Beach impressed last time out breaking his maiden with a nine length victory at Santa Anita and recording a Beyer Speed Figure of 90. Veteran jockey Mike Smith takes the ride after usual jockey Flavien Prat jumped ship to Gunmetal Grey.
The Outsiders
Our Braintrust has already proven he can hold his own in good quality fields as he finished runner-up to Mind Control in the Jerome Stakes and third in the Grade 3 Withers Stakes. Like Extra Hope in the First Division, this horse has a lot of heart but again may be a little short on the quality front.
Laughing Fox has been getting a fair amount of attention in the States and could go off nearer the top of the market than the bottom come Saturday. He broke his maiden at the beginning of this year but it was his latest victory that was the more eye-catching. After a troubled start, the son of Union Rags dug deep and passed the entire field to win in style. He is an improving colt with an outside chance.
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