Ahead of Cheltenham's first meeting of the season, Adam Houghton picks out three in-form jumps trainers to follow and three slow starters who could be about to turn the corner.
Top three trainers in October (by strike rate)*
*Minimum 10 runners in Britain and Ireland
Emma Lavelle
- Winners/runners (strike rate): 8/17 (47.06%)
- Run-to-form percentage: 76.47%
- Percentage of rivals beaten: 76.53%
The latest season was a challenging one for Emma Lavelle as she saddled only 32 winners, but it’s fair to say the yard has bounced back in no uncertain terms with 16 winners already on the board since the start of the current campaign, half of which have come in the month of October alone.
Those eight winners have come from only 17 runners and Lavelle’s strike rate of 47% is unequalled among all National Hunt trainers in Britain and Ireland who have saddled 10 or more runners since the start of the month. In the last week, Lavelle has saddled a brace of winners at both Huntingdon on Tuesday and Wincanton on Thursday.
Only Gordon Elliott (11), Nigel Twiston-Davies (11), Willie Mullins (9) and Dan Skelton (9) have sent out more winners in the month than Lavelle, while a Timeform run-to-form percentage of 76% is also symptomatic of a yard firing on all cylinders, with only three other trainers – Mullins (56%), Dr Richard Newland (53%) and Milton Harris (52%) – operating at better than 50%.
Nigel Twiston-Davies
- Winners/runners (strike rate): 11/29 (37.93%)
- Run-to-form percentage: 44.83%
- Percentage of rivals beaten: 67.14%
No trainer in Britain and Ireland has been more prolific in October than Nigel Twiston-Davies and it’s worth pointing out that his 11 winners have come from only 29 runners, considerably fewer than the man he’s tied at the top with – Gordon Elliott (11/56).
Only Emma Lavelle has a better strike rate since the start of the month than Twiston-Davies (38%), who saddled a notable double on the first day of the Chepstow meeting which traditionally launches the winter National Hunt programme in Britain, while Matata looked a smart novice in the making when impressing on his chasing debut at Ffos Las a couple of days later.
Admittedly, Twiston-Davies’ run-to-form percentage of 45% is nothing to shout about, but those punters who have kept the faith will have been well rewarded – his 29 runners have returned a healthy profit of £19.23 to a £1 level stake so far in October.
Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero
- Winners/runners (strike rate): 6/17 (35.29%)
- Run-to-form percentage: 47.06%
- Percentage of rivals beaten: 60.82%
Oliver Greenall and Josh Guerriero can do no wrong at the time of writing having been successful with their last four runners, sending out a brace of winners at both Wetherby on Wednesday and Carlisle on Thursday as their second season with a joint licence starts to kick into gear.
Greenall and Guerriero were quiet during the summer with only nine winners from 101 runners (9% strike rate) in Britain between the months of May and September, but things have turned a corner in recent weeks with their overall tally since the start of this month now standing at six winners from 17 runners at an impressive 35% strike rate.
A run-to-form percentage of 47% in October is enough to earn the duo a position among the top 10 National Hunt trainers in Britain and Ireland, while the yard has also been one of the most profitable to follow, behind only that of Edward Cawley (£26.00) – responsible for winners at 12/1 and 22/1 – having returned a profit of £24.45 to a £1 level stake.
Three slow starters to follow in November*
*Minimum 30 runners in Britain and Ireland since 2018
Nicky Henderson
- Winners/runners (strike rate): 85/338 (25.15%)
- Run-to-form percentage: 50.00%
- Percentage of rivals beaten: 62.73%
Nicky Henderson is operating at a 29% strike rate so far in October – he's saddled two winners from only seven runners – and that bodes well for what's to come in the weeks ahead when you consider that the team at Seven Barrows typically doesn't get going until November.
Since 2018, Henderson has a strike rate of 18% (29/162) in the month of October, but that figures jumps up to 25% (85/338) in November from over twice as many runners. Only Willie Mullins (28%) and Paul Nicholls (26%) have a better strike rate in November from 30 or more runners during that period, while Henderson is also ranked joint-sixth by run-to-form percentage.
Last season Henderson saddled three winners from 26 runners (12% strike rate) in October compared to 17 winners from 54 runners (31%) in November. It's just a matter of time before the floodgates open if that trend is repeated this term, especially with his string already in good form if the small sample size we have since the start of this month is anything to go by.
Fergal O’Brien
- Winners/runners (strike rate): 80/366 (21.86%)
- Run-to-form percentage: 49.18%
- Percentage of rivals beaten: 63.89%
Fergal O'Brien has been quiet so far in October with only three winners from 27 runners (11% strike rate), but that is far from unusual territory for him to be in and he'll be banking on an upturn in his fortunes in November like we've seen in seasons past.
Like Henderson, O'Brien is a trainer who generally seems able to leave a low-key October behind him with some excellent results the following month. For context, O'Brien has a strike rate of 16% (53/326) in the month of October since 2018, a figure which has been bettered by 45 trainers in Britain and Ireland. By contrast, he is ranked fifth among all trainers in November with a strike rate of 22% (80/366).
It's a similar story with O'Brien's run-to-form percentage which gives a better indication of how a yard is performing all round. He has operated at 41% in October (ranked 35th) compared to 49% in November (ranked ninth), an increase which suggests things will soon be coming to the boil at Ravenswell Farm.
Sandy Thomson
- Winners/runners (strike rate): 18/109 (16.51%)
- Run-to-form percentage: 48.62%
- Percentage of rivals beaten: 58.43%
October 2022 was a forgettable month for Sandy Thomson as he sent out just one winner from 20 runners at a 5% strike rate, but he then followed that with the single most prolific month of his training career to date in November 2022 when saddling nine winners from 24 runners at an impressive 38%.
With that sudden improvement in mind, Thomson will be a trainer to follow in the weeks ahead despite having only four winners to his name so far this season, including one from nine (11% strike rate) since the start of this month. It's certainly not something that will alarm a man who has operated at a strike rate of just 9% (7/79) in the month of October since 2018, compared to 17% (18/109) in November.
Thomson's run-to-form percentages follow a similar trend – 49% in November from 39% in October – and the recent rain that has fallen could be the turning point in his season, with most of his horses having a preference for softer ground.
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