Timeform race analyst James Cooper outlines how you go about pricing up Constitution Hill for his Flat debut at Southwell on Friday.
Story of the early market
The dynamic of how the online betting market evolves has changed dramatically, even in the past five to ten years. Many informed punters won’t be able to enter the market at the overnight stage (unless they have an account that acts as a marker) and increasingly paid tipsters with big followers can cause the first ripples in the prices at this embryonic stage.
What I was expecting to see in this novice (19:30 Southwell) was a defensive price on Constitution Hill (though not as short as 4/6 earlier this week) with a slight ease once the opposition was confirmed. A drift on the day was how I envisaged it as, in theory, it’s fairly easy to construct a case for opposing Constitution Hill so there wouldn’t be a shortage of layers.
That slide or market correction has already materialised, so much so that by Wednesday evening he was being challenged for favouritism by Square Necker. Having opened a head-scratching 11/1 in a place post-declaration, Square Necker has contracted all the way down to 7/4, and while the juice has been well and truly squeezed, I think he deserves his place at the head of the betting.
How the market could end up
The nature of the race from a pricing-up perspective reminds me of jumpers' bumpers to some extent, where the useful three-mile hurdlers often went off longer odds than you might expect. Punters were drawn more towards speed over jumps ability, with the bumper winners/two-mile performers coming to the fore given those races often developed into a sprint.
At the time of publication on Thursday evening, Constitution Hill and Square Necker are 7/4 joint-favourites, then it's 9/2 Daddy Long Legs, 9/1 Tripoli Flyer and Gambino, and 40/1 bar that quintet. With plenty of eyes on the race, turnover should be high and I can now see Constitution Hill, Square Necker and Tripoli Flyer shortening with the other two drifting out a fair bit.
How to approach a race as unique as this
Patently, it’s incredibly rare to get a hurdler of such merit running on the level and, aged nine, Constitution Hill’s hardly in the flush of youth for a Flat campaign, with more than his share of battle scars to go with the brilliance over obstacles.
Converting hurdles to Flat form has never been an exact science and old adages like "subtract 35lb from the jumps rating to get a guide to Flat ability" is a workable one for mid-level dual-purpose types but doesn’t really chime correctly once you get above a rating of 130+ over hurdles. Primarily that is due to the fact that the attributes largely required to achieve a useful level over hurdles are sound jumping and stamina for two miles-plus, and the pool of runners in that category capable of achieving a rating of 90-100 on the level is pretty small.
This novice was divided a year ago and worth just shy of £4,000 to the winner of each race. Foxlight (a bumper winner on debut) and Liam Swager (who had been hurdling and subsequently finished third in the Fred Winter at the Cheltenham Festival) both ran to 80 with Timeform on the day, but in this deeper race a 90+ performance will doubtless be required, for all its extremely rare for such a high level of form to be registered in a Southwell novice.
Nightime Dancer is an example of a useful winner of a recent valuable C&D novice, running to 87 in the spring before achieving a three-figure Timeform rating on all four starts since, including an eighth-place finish in the Derby.
Opposition to Constitution Hill
Competitors in maiden/novice races nearly always fall into one of these categories: 1) Not good enough regardless of tactics and or intent; 2) Potentially good enough to run to a level to be competitive but perhaps not at this stage of their career; 3) Good enough to be a factor but connections may have an eye on other targets; 4) Genuine contender on ability.
As far as the mile-and-a-half novice at Southwell is concerned there are probably a maximum of five runners in category four.
A close-up third to the now smart Bedouin Price on last year’s Lincoln card for Ralph Beckett, Square Necker landed the odds in pretty taking fashion upped to a mile and a half at Dundalk in December when in the care of Robson De Aguiar, proving his effectiveness on the all-weather in the process (replay below).
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The bare form of that easy win doesn’t do the son of Zarak justice and, as such, he now has a Timeform rating of 96p, with the 'p' indicating further improvement is expected. He's starting out for Kevin Philippart de Foy here and has to be the first port of call when looking for an alternative to Constitution Hill.
The sheer love of competition along with the inflated £40,000 prize money may have been the deciding factor for Dan Skelton and Willie Mullins running Gambino and Daddy Long Legs respectively. This is the only novice for four-year-olds and up that's worth £40,000.
Gambino and Daddy Long Legs both have had just the two Flat runs but they boast contrasting profiles. The former showed plenty of ability on both starts at Gowran, his maiden win on debut in April working out quite well before running a cracker four months later when runner-up on his handicap debut over an extended mile and a half. He’s presumably been purchased with hurdling in mind but clearly has the tools to be a factor if fully wound-up on this return to action switched to the all-weather.
Daddy Long Legs is better known as a smart hurdler and while he failed to land the odds on his first Flat start for Willie Mullins in May, there was a legitimate excuse as he was found to be lame post-race.
Both add intrigue to the line-up but, while the ability of either trainer to get a horse fit isn’t in any doubt, it’s probably fair to say they will have more important targets later in 2026.
Constitution Hill also potentially has bigger targets coming up, with the Champion Hurdle fewer than three weeks away, but this race has been on his agenda for a while. You can also be fairly sure that he'll have had plenty of practice out of the stalls at home as it’s another small hurdle to overcome, so to speak.
Tripoli Flyer is the other credible threat and while last month’s excellent second at Ascot suggests he’s of serious interest in the high-end spring handicaps over hurdles, he possessed plenty of ability in bumpers early in his career so shouldn’t lack for pace here on his Flat debut. He’s fit and in form so makes a fair amount of each-way appeal.
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