With an odds-on favourite dominating the build-up to this year's Investec Derby, Matt Brocklebank offers a couple of alternative ways to make money on the premier Classic.
Try something exotic
We British aren't renowned for our love of the exotic.
There are over 200 pages to the Kama Sutra but in betting terms we barely get past the 'missionary' win or each-way page.
Granted, the sheer necessity for pool betting in other jurisdictions has seen them streak ahead in the more imaginative wagers, but there are a multitude of ways to spice up your lives in the betting jungle, some of which look particularly appealing ahead of this year's premiere Classic.
Let us for the time being focus on the relatively unadventurous but potentially highly-rewarding prospect of Investec Derby forecasts and tricasts.
When you form a strong opinion in racing then it is vitally important to maximise the reward for that view should it bear any fruit at all.
So, take odds-on Derby favourite Saxon Warrior – if you can’t for the life of you see him being beaten then don’t get sucked into a bet 'without the favourite' as you’re essentially throwing away the banker element of your stance for the sake of a stab at something else.
Put some serious thought into which horses are most likely to follow him home – think tactics, trainer, jockey, historical relevance.
For example, Aidan O'Brien – Saxon Warrior's master trainer – has won the Derby six times in the past and on both occasions he’s saddled the one-two it has been the case of a lesser-fancied runner beating a well-backed stablemate.
In the last 10 runnings, only three market leaders have won the race, though eight in total have finished inside the top three and the two who didn't were Dawn Approach who finished last in 2013, and Jan Vermeer who was just outside the placings when fourth to Workforce in 2010.
If you're against Saxon Warrior, then it would be wise to still use him in any top-three combinations. His class will get him into a winning position but whether he has the stamina reserves to go through with it will only be discovered for sure on the day.
The Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial at Leopardstown earlier in the month stands out as a vastly underestimated piece of form and just one length split the front three there - namely Hazapour, Delano Roosevelt and The Pentagon.
They are all expected to relish a mile and a half on potentially quick ground and they're some way down the betting market which will ensure a good return if it is indeed the key piece of evidence away from the QIPCO 2000 Guineas, where Masar finished a good third to Saxon Warrior.
So if you're seriously considering unloading the lot onto the odds-on favourite this year - relax, don't do it.
Recommended bets
- Combination forecast (12 bets) on Saxon Warrior, Hazapour, Delano Roosevelt and The Pentagon
- Combination tricast (24 bets) on Saxon Warrior, Hazapour, Delano Roosevelt and The Pentagon
Strike a match
Twelve months ago Pealer (100/1) became only the third rank outsider in the past 10 renewals of the Investec Derby to finish last.
It may seem perfectly obvious to many that the rag of the field doesn't always play the role of rabbit in a race of this nature, but it should alert punters to the fact that many horses have out-performed market expectations down the years.
"They don't pay out on eighth," I hear you cry.
But plenty of layers do offer the chance to bet on various head-to-heads within the race, and they often include not only the better-fancied horses towards the top of the win market, but some of the lesser lights, too.
In general terms, identifying horses who may struggle with the unique test that the Epsom Derby provides is a good starting point.
Inexperience can play a huge role in the Derby. The fanfare of the occasion means some horses have effectively run their race following the parade in front of the packed stands and long canter down to the start. Keep an eye out for colts awash with sweat, or those who appear agitated before entering the stalls.
That didn't appear to be the case with Ulysses two years ago but the subsequent dual Group One winner, who had been fast-tracked following an impressive Newbury maiden win, simply wasn't ready for such a severe examination at such an early stage in his development.
Young Rascal is the least experienced of those towards the head of the betting this time around and while he showed character to come between rivals and eventually win a shade cosily in the Chester Vase, Epsom poses an altogether different challenge.
It's not hard to be against him, while on pedigree alone Roaring Lion should be nowhere near this race.
He was impressive in a slowly-run Dante Stakes at York but is frankly begging to be taken on in the Derby.
The experienced Masar, who boasts strong form on his third to Saxon Warrior in the Guineas and has already travelled the world with trips to the Breeders' Cup as well as Dubai, is one to keep on side against the two trial winners. He is 11/10 to beat Young Rascal and 2/1 to finish in front of Roaring Lion.Both appeal.
Recommended bets
