Our experts analyse Investec Derby favourite Saxon Warrior and how he could get beat

Ben Linfoot

The last three Guineas winners to tackle the Derby have finished first, last and first and though it’s very hard to see Saxon Warrior continuing that sequence there is obviously a question mark over his ability to see out the trip.

Any Guineas winner that has only raced over a mile or less prior to the Derby has the stamina question to answer and though Sea The Stars and Camelot responded emphatically, Dawn Approach most certainly did not.

Jim Bolger’s charge didn’t settle and while Saxon Warrior looks like the type of horse to relax perfectly well over this longer trip, if he is going to be beaten on Saturday you would expect it to be by a stronger stayer.

It’s very difficult to see him getting beat on class grounds, certainly, so testing his ability to see out the trip is the chink of light for his rivals that don’t seem to have the natural ability of the son of Deep Impact.

The problem for them is the other six Aidan O’Brien-trained horses in the race. We’ve seen time and time again Ballydoyle get their tactics spot on and you can expect at least half of them to be in the front rank dictating the tempo of the Derby from an early stage.

Harry Dunlop’s Knight To Behold looks set to be up there, too, but the key horses are the duo under the Godolphin banner, Masar and Dee Ex Bee.

Masar has nearly two lengths to find with Saxon Warrior on their Guineas running and is one of the closest to him in terms of pure form, but Dee Ex Bee could be the key horse tactically.

He failed to get to the front in either the Classic trial at Epsom or the Chester Vase from a wide draw, but he shaped with promise on both occasions and looks the one that could go forward and make this a real test.

That could bring any number of horses into the equation, including, admittedly, Saxon Warrior, who might just relish a test of stamina himself. It’s just the not knowing, but, if he is going to be beaten, setting up a severe test of stamina looks the only way to do it.

Matt Brocklebank

Barring accident, the only way Saxon Warrior can be beaten in the Investec Derby is if some of his rivals stay the trip better than him.

It would be wrong to question the son of Deep Impact’s stamina reverses on pedigree alone, though it does raise one or two questions over whether he will potentially improve for moving up half a mile in distance following his taking QIPCO 2000 Guineas success over a mile.

His sire has a significant number of high-class, middle-distance winners among his progeny and they do tend to get better with age. But Saxon Warrior’s dam, Maybe, only once raced beyond a mile and that was when seemingly a non-staying fifth to stable companion Was in the 2012 Investec Oaks.

Progeny of Galileo mares do nearly always stay well, though, and perhaps those wishing to oppose him on these grounds will point to just how well he cruised through the 2000 Guineas.

He couldn’t possibly be even better over further, could he?

Tactically, Saxon Warrior is fairly versatile and Ryan Moore will presumably be looking to switch him off some way down the field through the occasionally rough early stages.

With stablemates Kew Gardens and Nelson expected to force the pace, along with free-going Lingfield Derby Trial winner Knight To Behold, there looks sure to be a decent tempo so a true overall test appears all but guaranteed.

Young Rascal is seemingly a stronger stayer than Roaring Lion but in reality it is possibly one of the favourite’s stablemates that will cause him most problems. The Pentagon and Delano Roosevelt are both by the all-conquering Galileo and should be crying out for a mile and a half on fast ground – both could take a serious step forward on June 2 and it wouldn’t be the first time an O’Brien second or third-string gets the better of a better-fancied runner from the same yard.

David Ord

The easy argument to look to try and make here is that Saxon Warrior won’t stay. After all this is half-a-mile further than he’s ever been before and he’s not a typical Coolmore runner at Epsom. He isn’t by Galileo.

Deep Impact, though, is an influence for stamina and this colt’s full-sister Pavlenko sort of stays a mile-and-a-half at a lower level. He switched off well at Newmarket and I can’t have him running out of petrol at Epsom.

So what about the unique undulations of the course? For all the Epsom bend at Ballydoyle will help give him a flavour of what’s to come, nothing can fully prepare a horse for the test that awaits him on Investec Derby day.

It’s a proper examination of the thoroughbred. The build-up is intense, the canter to the start the second test of the temperament and that’s even before the camber of the track and climbs and descents kick in once the stalls open.

Again there have been no signs of any temperament issues with Saxon Warrior so far and he handled the Dip at Newmarket, on fast ground, with aplomb.

No if he’s vulnerable on Saturday it’s the Racing Post Trophy that offers the clue.

Roaring Lion has one run to get him.

Now it’s a case of third time lucky for the Dante winner who was only fifth when racing alone by the stands’ rail at Newmarket, but his York win showed he’s back on track. And his Doncaster run last October shows that he’s a threat.

On that occasion Roaring Lion was anchored in the rear by Oisin Murphy but quickened better than anything in the field to pass Saxon Warrior – and while drifting to his left - go nearly a length clear inside the final furlong.

The subsequent Guineas hero wasn’t having any of that and rallied strongly to overhaul his rival and win by a neck. But for a stride or three he was swamped for speed by his rival.

It will take a ride that will catapult Murphy into Epsom folklore to take his revenge on Saturday, but he now knows he has one run to beat Saxon Warrior. Play it cool, play it late, and don’t give the Warrior the chance to fight back.

It’s easier to type than deliver on the track.

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