Jagwar's victory in the Trustatrader Plate last year provided the latest example of how the Timeform Novices' Handicap Chase on Trials Day is often a key Cheltenham Festival pointer.
Jagwar was a smooth winner on Trials Day and then showed himself to be a smart chaser when following up at the Festival, justifying his status as 3/1 favourite in a field of 20.
His victory means four of the last ten winners of the Timeform Novices' have followed up at that year's Festival, while another three were placed. That level of success is even more impressive when you consider that the race perhaps considered the most natural Festival target - the novice handicap chase - was removed from the running order following the 2020 edition and only re-added in 2025.
That 2020 renewal of the novice handicap chase at the Festival was won by Imperial Aura, who went one place better than he had in what proved to be an especially strong edition of the Timeform. Imperial Aura had chased home Simply The Betts who also went on to score at that year's Festival, landing the Festival Plate against more experienced handicap chasers.
The Trials Day card was cancelled due to waterlogging in 2021, but in 2022 Imperial Alcazar - carrying the same silks as Imperial Aura - won the Timeform before finishing runner-up in the Plate.
In 2023 Stage Star followed up a comprehensive win in the Timeform with victory in the Grade 1 two-and-a-half-mile novice chase, while his stablemate Ginny's Destiny went close to completing the same double at the 2024 Festival but was denied by Britain's leading novice chaser Grey Dawning. There was still a Festival winner who graduated from the Timeform in 2024, though, as Unexpected Party bounced back from a disappointing effort on Trials Day to land the Grand Annual.
A tweak to the Festival running order in 2025 meant that the Grade 1 two-and-a-half-mile novice chase was scrapped, but the novice handicap chase was back on the programme. Mister Whitaker had completed the Trials Day and Festival novice handicap chase double in 2018.
So what have recent winners of the Timeform novice handicap chase had in common?
Perhaps unsurprisingly, given the race tends to provide such a strong piece of form, most of the trends point towards wanting a progressive, unexposed sort with the potential to prove a long way ahead of their mark.
Key trends
- Eight of the last ten winners had won or finished second last time out
- Eight of the last ten winners had run no more than three times over fences
- Eight of the last ten winners were aged six or seven
- Seven of the last ten winners still had the Timeform small 'p' to show they were likely improvers
The six-year-old Jordans Cross and seven-year-old Barlovento look to have the most attractive profiles for this year's race given they're lightly-raced chasers who won last time out and still have the Timeform 'small p' to suggest further improvement is expected.
Gordon Elliott has entered five horses - presumably keen to get an early look at some BHA handicap marks - and among that quintet are a couple who still have the Timeform 'small p'.
Jacob's Ladder has already had four runs but produced his best effort yet on Timeform's figures when runner-up in a Grade 3 at Punchestown last time, while Kurasso Blue also produced her best performance last time, for all she had to settle for second at Naas. She's only a five-year-old but that's unlikely to count against her and emphasises her potential for improvement. Very few horses of that age group have contested this race but last year's runner-up, Billytherealbigred, was a five-year-old.
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