It's day two of the Sky Bet Ebor Festival at York and our expert is on the hunt for more big-priced winners - check out his tips.
- The long-standing Value Bet column is over 130pts in profit so far in 2022
- Winners this year include 50/1 Noble Yeats in the Grand National and Desert Crown at 25/1 (antepost) in the Derby
- Lord Riddiford (14/1) and Prairie Falcon (14/1) were both tipped at last month's Qatar Goodwood Festival
Value Bet tips: Thursday August 18
1pt win Tyrrhenian Sea in 3.00 York at 12/1 (William Hill, BoyleSports)
1pt win Poptronic in 3.35 York at 25/1 (General)
1pt win Star Fortress in 4.10 York at 10/1 (William Hill, Coral)
Brilliant day in store for Burke team?
Day two at York starts with a quality-looking renewal of the Sky Bet Lowther Stakes as two of Britain’s fastest two-year-old fillies, Dramatised and Mawj, set a seriously high standard.
Karl Burke’s Dramatised might have pushed Royal Aclaim close to Nunthorpe favouritism had she been aimed at Friday’s Group One over five furlongs rather than this, but her trainer is already thinking of her as a potential Guineas horse for next spring so common sense appears to have prevailed in terms of her next target after the runaway win in Royal Ascot’s Queen Mary Stakes.
Conceding the weight penalty is never an easy task in this event, highlighted by a bunch of horses to have tried and failed since Lucky Kristale last pulled it off in 2013, so I wouldn’t be too hasty to chalk up number one in race one as the banker of the afternoon.
Mawj has to give 3lb away too on the back of her Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes triumph at Newmarket, though she does look the biggest form threat - and by some margin – to the exciting Dramatised.
It would be good to see Burke’s latest fine season with juveniles richly rewarded with such a significant prize but in terms of a bet I’d much rather take a chance on the same stable’s POPTRONIC causing an upset in the Darley Yorkshire Oaks.
Her form to this point is miles short of Alpinista and La Petite Coco’s, while she even has a fair amount to find with fellow three-year-old (they get 9lb from their elders here) Tuesday on a strict reading of collateral evidence through Cazoo Oaks also-ran Rogue Millennium.
But I don’t think we’ve seen anything like the best of Poptronic yet and I’d be surprised if she didn’t improve a considerable amount for the move up to a mile and a half.
Her early keenness – when beating Rogue Millennium ears pricked at Newcastle and again when ultimately having to settle for second to the very progressive Achelois here last month – might not obviously back up that ‘wants further’ theory, and yet I’m sure her rivals just haven’t been going quickly enough through the early stages of her last two races to allow the daughter of Nathaniel to get into a proper rhythm.
Burke has reached for the hood in a bid to help her settle back on the Knavesmire and it will hopefully do just that, but a better-quality race might also bring out the best in this promising filly.
Sam James may even opt to send her on quite early as there isn’t much early pace coming from elsewhere in the line-up and I’ve always been a fan of backing potentially over-priced horses who look like they might get a soft lead at York.
Poptronic was gunned down by a quicker animal here last time but she was still finding plenty in the closing stages and I’m willing to wager she won’t be quite as easy to pass as the betting market suggests.
Burke could have a live one in the Goffs UK Harry Beeby Premier Yearling Stakes too with the ultra-shrewd Nick Bradley running Secret Angel just nine days on from her maiden win at Carlisle.
She came wide into the straight there and looked to have a lot more in hand over game runner-up In These Shoes having idled a little on the final climb to the line.
I’m willing to excuse her soft-ground Pontefract effort prior to that too but would liked to have seen the form of her promising debut run at Nottingham receive a few boosts, which hasn’t been the case at all. I can just about let her go around the 14/1 mark in a seriously competitive heat.
Sea fancied to storm to victory
The Clipper Logistics Handicap is the big betting heat on the card and Roger Varian’s TYRRHENIAN SEA looks the one to be backing.
Having touched on front-runners often being at an advantage on the round course, that can swiftly be levelled up in any given race by a host of candidates looking likely to take each other on early, and this is a prime example with Cruyff Turn, Isla Kai, Shelir and the likes of Lion Tower and Whats The Story also set to go forward from the gate for good measure.
So I can given the patiently ridden horses a pass here and Tyrrhenian Sea promises to be really well suited by his first experience in such a big field.
He’s arguably best known for his odds-on defeat at the hands of Living Legend at Newcastle on All-Weather Championships Finals day in April, when looking all over the winner before being outbattled in the 10-furlong Easter Classic.
Subsequent events show he was far from disgraced in defeat that day, Living Legend beating Breeders’ Cup Turf winner Yibir on his next start in the Group Two Jockey Club Stakes, while the selection ran quite a nice race on unfavourable terms when last of four in a little Listed race at Windsor when last seen in June.
Beaten just over two lengths by the 113-rated My Oberon off level weights that day, Tyrrhenian Sea did seem to appreciate the drop back to a mile, which is no real surprise given he was 3-3 over the trip before the Good Friday reversal, and he’ll surely settle better in behind a more end-to-end gallop.
He’s an unexposed four-year-old with a classy pedigree and I wouldn’t have fallen off my chair had he been four or five points shorter than he is at the time of publication.
Star looks underestimated
STAR FORTRESS has strong claims to success in the British EBF & Sir Henry Cecil Galtres Stakes and should be backed accordingly.
She couldn't quite follow up her impressive Chelmsford novice win when stepped into Listed company for the first time at Newmarket late last month, but she certainly took another step forward form-wise, finishing third - beaten just a length and a half - behind Qatar Racing-owned pair Emotion and Rose Of Kildare.
The runner-up has since given that form a perfectly reasonable look with a neck second in another Listed race at Pontefract and Star Fortress still looks to be learning on the job as she over-raced slightly in the early stages at HQ.
Despite that freshness, the daughter of Sea The Stars appeared to get the mile and a half trip well and I fancy her to put that experience to good use under Rossa Ryan, who keeps the mount with Ryan Moore in to ride Ralph Beckett stablemate Haskoy for the Juddmonte team.
Published at 1530 BST on 17/08/22
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