Horse Racing Tips: Best Value Bets for Newmarket on Wednesday April 17
Andrew Asquith steps in for Matt Brocklebank for Wednesday's Value Bet column and has three recommended bets at Newmarket.
Value Bet tips: Wednesday April 17
1pt win Ambiente Friendly in 2.25 Newmarket at 8/1 (General)
1pt win Astro King in 3.00 Newmarket at 12/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair, Betvictor)
1pt win True Cyan in 3.35 Newmarket at 10/1 (General)
There is a great card at Newmarket on Wednesday which kicks off with an ultra-competitive six-furlong handicap, featuring a maximum field of 20 and a host of horses you can make a case for. The market is headed by Orazio, who won this race 12 months ago from an 11lb lower mark, and he still looks a horse to be positive about this season given he shaped better than the bare result towards the end of last year, while he was far from disgraced on his return in heavy ground at Doncaster last month.
That was his first start since undergoing a gelding operation and I still believe he will develop into a pattern-class sprinter this season. The return to better ground will suit him and he still looks well treated from a mark of 100. I tried to find one against him and it was Al Farabi who I came closest to selecting. He has a good draw in stall 3 and is totally unexposed on turf and to some extent at this trip. However, he is only 14/1 and didn’t have any obvious excuses from this mark at Newcastle last time, so I’m inclined to pass the race over as I think there are some better opportunities later on the card.
The market for the Feilden Stakes is headed by French-raider Narkez, who showed useful form when winning a minor event at Saint-Cloud by six and a half lengths on his return last month, but ground conditions will be very different here, and I think he’s opposable at the prices.
The horse who most takes my eye is the James Fanshawe-trained AMBIENTE FRIENDLY, who made a winning start in a newcomers’ event at Leicester last season in the style of a smart prospect. That performance was even more pertinent as he represents a yard that rarely get first-time-out winners, so the fact they had a juvenile one marks himself out as being well above average.
That form has been boosted by the second and third, who have both gone on to win races since, and Ambiente Friendly looked very professional that day, making all of the running and finding plenty when asked to go and win his race over a furlong out.
Ambiente Friendly started 16/1 upped to a mile for his next start in the Autumn Stakes and duly showed improved form to finish third behind Ancient Wisdom and Chief Little Rock. The runner-up went on to give that form a big boost when winning the Vertem Futurity at Doncaster on his next start.
The form book states that Ambiente Friendly was beaten five and a half lengths but he shaped much better than that distance suggests, again given a positive ride, but this time failing to settle in front and taking them along at a strong pace (the timefigure of that race was very good). He was headed around two furlongs out and didn’t have the pace to go with Ancient Wisdom, but he stuck to his task well and didn’t finish far behind the runner-up.
There is stamina on the dam’s side of his pedigree, suggesting he will be well suited by this step up to nine furlongs, and he is the type to make up into an even better three-year-old (angular colt who should have grown into himself). Prominent racers can often be seen to good effect on the Rowley Mile, especially on a sound surface, and under a more efficient ride, he must have a big say in the finish.
Ottoman Fleet is back to defend his crown in the Earl of Sefton Stakes and he has to be respected given his record over at this course (three-time winner), but he was well below form when last seen at Meydan in February and will need to leave that run well behind, while Royal Rhyme is sure to give him plenty to think about, too.
I’m taking both of those on with ASTRO KING, though, who had some of the best handicap form around last season. He is now a seven-year-old, but he took his form to new heights for Daniel & Claire Kubler last year, only just failing to win the John Smith’s Cup at York before recording his first win for over two years over the same course and distance on his next start.
He proved better than ever when following up in the Cambridgeshire over this course and distance in September, producing an excellent performance to defy top weight and a BHA mark of 107, becoming the first horse to achieve that feat since Cap Juluca in 1995. He beat a well-handicapped, progressive three-year-old in the process and that form on the whole has a very solid look to it.
Astro King has since run respectably in Group 2s in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, finishing midfield on both occasions, but he will likely be happier back on home soil and he will be fit enough given his latest run was in February. The 12/1 available probably underestimates his chance in this and he should also get a good pace to aim at with several in here who like to race prominently.
Charlie Appleby has started the year in cracking form, operating at a 40% strike rate before the action at Newmarket kicked off on Tuesday, while a 31% strike rate over the last five seasons on the Rowley Mile highlights just how well he does here. Therefore, it is no surprise to see Dance Sequence trading at odds-on for the Nell Gywn, given she arrives with an unbeaten record and won the Oh So Sharp Stakes over course and distance on her final start.
She is also vying for favouritism in the 1000 Guineas next month and a good performance here will see those odds contract further. However, I was very taken with TRUE CYAN when she made a winning debut over course and distance last season, and if there is one horse in here who has the potential to improve to the levels of Dance Sequence, then I think it could be her.
True Cyan was a £150,000 purchase at the breeze-ups last year and she looked a cut above her rivals on debut, always travelling well towards the near side and there was plenty to like about the manner in which she quickened out of the Dip, hitting the front over a furlong out and always in command from there. The timefigure was nothing special, but the form has worked out well, with the second and third both winning impressively next time.
Of course, this represents a much sterner test for True Cyan, who is the least exposed in the field with just one run under her belt. She looked professional on her sole start, however, and she is a filly with plenty of substance, a lengthy filly with scope who should make up into an even better three-year-old. It is also a positive that connections pitch her in at this level on her return to action and she looks an exciting prospect.
- Preview posted 1520 GMT on 16/4/2024
More from Sporting Life
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
Next Off
Most Followed
MOST READ RACING
