Matt Brocklebank tipped big-priced Brown Advisory winner Lecky Watson on Wednesday. Log-in for free to access his preview of the Thursday action.
Value Bet tips: Thursday March 13
1pt win The Other Mozzie in 2.00 Cheltenham at 40/1 (General)
0.5pts e.w. Super Survivor in 2.40 Cheltenham at 40/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5)
1pt win An Peann Dearg in 4.40 Cheltenham at 14/1 (bet365)
1pt win Git Maker in 5.20 Cheltenham at 14/1 (General)
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The Ryanair Chase and Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle share top billing at Cheltenham on Thursday and both races contain short-priced favourites in Fact To File and Teahupoo respectively.
I couldn’t think of many less appealing bets than the pair of them in a double, which instinctively leads me to believe there must be some value to be found elsewhere in the Grade 1 highlights, and yet I’ve gone around the houses several times and can’t seem to find anything in which to put much faith.
Jungle Boogie ran a belter in the Gold Cup last year and might find the Ryanair run to suit, while the closest I came to rolling the dice in the Stayers’ was Ga Law as he’s a different horse on decent ground and remains massively unexposed over hurdles (one win from three starts) having made his name as a chaser.
However, we’ve no idea whether he’ll stay the three-mile trip after he skipped the Cleeve on Trials Day on account of the bad ground, and there's just too much guesswork involved with him at the moment.
What I’m fairly happy to go along with, however, is that Ga Law’s trainer Jamie Snowden is probably one of the hottest in Britain right now, having had six winners from just a dozen runners in the past fortnight, and I’ve almost been waiting for him to join the Festival party.
Snowden has his first Cheltenham runner of the week in the day-three opener as Hollygrove Cha Cha looks to add to her tally in the Ryanair Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle. Her only defeat from four starts over jumps came when second to Jubilee Alpha at Taunton on December 30 and she seems likely to appreciate this more demanding course, albeit the trip looks a bare minimum as she won over further on soft at Sandown last time.
Anyway, it’s the Snowden handicappers I’m more interested in and last year’s second GIT MAKER is back on an attractive mark for another crack at the Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Amateur Jockeys’ Handicap Chase.
He’s been scratching around for form this winter but has only had a couple of starts, one of which came in a handicap hurdle at Windsor so is hardly a stick with which to beat him, and it’s worth underlining the fact he did only find Gold Cup hope Inothewayurthinkin too strong in this event 12 months ago.
Beaten eight lengths by that subsequent Grade 1 novice winner, Git Maker came 18 lengths clear of the third, so if a bid to go one better in the Kim Muir has been the horse’s priority all season then it could be a stroke of genius from connections as he’s just 1lb higher in the weights a year on.
He’s also fairly happy on all types of ground, while first-time cheekpieces are enlisted to try and gee him back up under one of the better UK-based amateur riders, Will Biddick.
I reckons there’s enough to warrant a bet there and the other Snowden-trained horse I’d argue is over-priced is SUPER SURVIVOR in the Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle.
He was runner-up to Git Maker at Lingfield early last season, after which he was sent off one of the favourites (11/2) for the Welsh Grand National, only to find the heavy ground at Chepstow all too much for him to handle.
His trainer admits it's taken a long time for Super Survivor to fully recover from that gruelling episode but recover he has – and in good style too, winning handicap hurdles at Doncaster and Huntingdon with the cheekpieces refitted on his two most recent outings.
The eye may have been drawn to second Shanagh Bob, as well as fourth Zain Nights to some extent, in the same Huntingdon qualifier, but the more I watch the race back the more I think Super Survivor completely outclassed them and had loads to spare.
In spite of that, he’s only gone up another 6lb, meaning he’s been raised 9lb in total for the back-to-back victories and I suspect that may prove to be fairly lenient as he’s now just a pound higher than when so hotly-fancied for the Welsh National as a second-season chaser last Christmas.
He’s found his niche now and might be able to keep on progressing.
The Jack Richards Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase is a cracking betting heat and Springwell Bay lines up here over the three or four alternative targets he had at the start of the week.
His presence at the top may even have swayed connections of one or two others to aim their novices at the Plate (more on that race below), but he still faces a daunting task trying to concede weight all round.
Newbury one-two Lord Of Thunder and Pic Roc are dangerous, with the latter entitled to reverse the form on revised terms, but there are 11 Irish-trained horses in the field and it’s fascinating trying to weigh up where they’re going to slot in.
We know all about Moon D’Orange after his remarkable win here in ‘open’ handicap company in January and I don’t think the assessor has gone overboard in raising him 4lb, especially considering the shuddering error at the final fence. He could surely have won by further without that mistake.
Moon D’Orange’s BHA mark is just 1lb higher than his current Irish rating and the vast majority have been treated more harshly in that regard, but by my reckoning there’s only one horse able to run off their Irish mark and that’s Gavin Cromwell’s THE OTHER MOZZIE.
He was bumped up 11lb by the Irish assessors to 138 after hacking up in first-time headgear (cheekpieces are retained) over two miles at Naas last time out in January, and that’s the mark he’s been allotted for this which connections (new owners since last seen) can’t have too many complaints about.
Still only six and clearly in the right hands to progress, he had a sighter around the Cheltenham course earlier in the season, jumping and travelling quite well until not really seeing his race out for whatever reason.
That just isn’t his true form at all and I like the fact he’s so versatile ground-wise having started the campaign with a good-ground win over the reopposing Anyway at Galway back in October. He’s actually 1lb better off with that rival now and Conor Stone-Walsh claiming 3lb is a real asset.
Value Bet Late Play
Throughout the Cheltenham Festival, Matt will also be providing an 11.30am update via the Value Bet Late Play, with further recommended bets based on market activity and possible going changes.
Joseph O’Brien’s novice Jordans is one I’ve been chatting about for ages now and I like this piece of placement in going for the TrustATrader Plate Handicap Chase against largely more exposed rivals – Jagwar an obvious exception – rather than the Jack Richards earlier on the card.
Sadly, punters have been all over him since final declarations and the value has probably been squeezed out of his odds. I’m generally willing to be a fraction less price-sensitive during Festival week but there’s a line to be drawn with every horse and Jordans has slipped under it as far as I’m concerned at the time of publication.
Perhaps I’ll come back to him in the Late Play update at 11am but for now I think the Paul Nolan-trained AN PEANN DEARG might be something of a surprise package.
Having said that, he is coming here on a hat-trick following back-to-back Leopardstown wins at two of the most competitive meetings in the Irish programme, so is hardly flying under the radar.
What I’m drawn to is that the Dublin Racing Festival win was a big step up on what he’d done at the same course on Boxing Day and while both of those victories came at a trip just beyond two miles, he was being campaigned up to three miles last summer and I could see this intermediate test being well within range.
Nolan does well with the select runners he sends to Cheltenham and this rapid improver is one to have on side.
He’s inevitably gone up the ratings but was the last one to creep into this contest off their ‘proper’ mark, the presence of Conflated at the top keeping Demnat and Individualiste out of the handicap, and whereas loads of the more experience, exposed types in the line-up would have preferred the ground to be softer, An Peann Dearg looks happiest on a reasonably sound surface.
Published at 1600 GMT on 12/03/25
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