Horse racing Flat season 2023 profitable systems to follow

Backing Charlie Appleby blind on the Rowley Mile

The Flat is back and that probably means Charlie Appleby will be churning out winners all over the place again, but there was no place quite like home for the Godolphin maestro in 2022 when backing him blind on his own patch resulted in significant profits.

Indeed, having a tenner on every Appleby-trained horse on Newmarket’s Rowley Mile course in 2022 would’ve resulted in a profit of +£405.60 if all the bets were settled at SP, as he had 33 winners from 81 runners at an exceptional strike-rate of 40.74%.

Al Nafir won at 16/1 which helped the positive figure, but he was by far the biggest-priced winner from the yard as Appleby produced well-fancied horse after well-fancied horse to plunder the HQ prizemoney.

There is no reason why Appleby won’t dominate at his local track once again and with the Craven and Guineas meetings coming up in April and May, he can quickly get that ridiculous strike-rate ticking along nicely again.

Dubawi progeny at Epsom – a Classic is a matter of time

The headline from the Dubawi progeny running at Epsom stats is that they are 0/14 in the Oaks and the Derby, but if you fancy a son or daughter of his for the June Classics the message is don’t let that put you off.

There are 99 sires that have had over 40 runners at Epsom this century and only two have a 20% or better strike-rate – Dubawi, who is 30/119 at 25.61% (+£39.12 to £1 level stakes at SP) and Lope De Vega, who is 12 from 60 at 20%.

Things haven’t gone as well for his Classic contenders at Epsom with Wild Illusion coming closest to winning when second in the 2018 Oaks, but she was the shortest price of the 14 at 5/2 and went onto win two Group Ones at three in the Nassau and Prix de l’Opera.

The stallion just hasn’t quite had the right horse for the Oaks or Derby as yet, but his progeny go very well at Epsom overall and any concerns over the suitability of the track for his sons and daughters might be misplaced.

Ice-cool Atzeni the man to trust when the money is down

There is a clear best in class when drilling down to the jockey who is the most reliable on odds-on shots on turf the last five years and that man is Andrea Atzeni.

He has scored on 35 of the 45 odds-on favourites he has ridden since 2018, a win strike-rate of 77.78% and a Percentage Rivals Beaten figure of 92.99% - he hasn’t been out of the first three in those 45 goes, returning a level-stakes profit to SP of +£12.06.

You might think his principal supplier of rides during that time, Roger Varian, deserves some of the credit for this, but remarkably he was responsible for all but one of Atzeni’s odds-on losers in the timeframe.

Indeed, 13 different trainers, other than Varian, had Atzeni ride an odds-on chance for them on 19 occasions in the last five years and he won on 18, which bodes well for his burgeoning freelance career.

Longshot Jim has been defying the odds

Associated with the brilliant Baaeed, the perkiest of perks that come with his role as retained jockey for Shadwell, you wouldn’t think Jim Crowley would be the longshot king.

But the fact that he rides far fewer rank outsiders than his peers gives him a clear strike-rate edge over his contemporaries and when he does pop up on a 20/1 poke, it’s usually for Shadwell in something like a Royal Ascot handicap.

The upshot is Crowley is top of the strike-rate and WAX (Wins Above Expectation) leaderboard on horses that went off 12/1 or bigger on turf the last five years, with a record of 25 from 398 at 6.28%, to a £1 level stakes profit of +£174.

They include a couple of 50/1 winners in maidens at Nottingham and Newbury, and also big-field Royal Ascot handicap victories on the likes of Bacchus at 33/1 in the Wokingham and Afaak at 20/1 in the Royal Hunt Cup.

Bank on Balding at Chester

Andrew Balding often targets Chester and there are several ways to make money on his horses on the Roodeye.

The Kingsclere trainer has a tremendous record in Chester handicaps, winning 58 from 289 at 20.07% in his career, including a very healthy 62.21% of rivals beaten and a profit of +£46.80 to £1 level stakes, as well – incredible numbers considering the idiosyncrasies of the track and the perils of the draw.

All of his handicappers are worth close attention, but his up-and-coming three-year-olds are responsible for a large portion of the success; he’s 34 from 142 at 23.94% with his 3yo handicappers at Chester.

He clearly targets the track with his better horses and last year he was five from six with Frankel progeny there thanks to Vazire, Frankness and Spirit Mixer – so look out for any 3yo Frankels hailing from the Balding yard in handicaps at Chester’s May Meeting!

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