In the latest part of the series examining the state of play in each division, Tony McFadden outlines how the middle-distance performers rank based on Timeform ratings.
Things looked bright after Eclipse
Cast your mind back to a sunny Sandown on the first Saturday in July. Things were looking bright for the middle-distance division in the immediate aftermath of the Eclipse, which had fulfilled its role as the first battleground in the clash of the generations.
In a thrilling contest, impressive French Derby winner Vadeni (Timeform rating 127p) made the most of his generous weight-for-age allowance (Timeform say three-year-olds should get 2 lb less over that trip at that point in the season) to just got the better of Mishriff (129), the 2020 French Derby winner whose impressive CV also includes top-level victories in the Sheema Classic and Juddmonte International.
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The weekend before the Eclipse Westover (126) had pulverised his rivals in the Irish Derby, making amends for a luckless passage in the Derby at Epsom, which had been won in smooth style by the unbeaten and hugely exciting Desert Crown (130p).
Westover and Desert Crown were set to clash again in the King George at Ascot, where they were also due to meet the previous year's Derby and King George winner Adayar (130).
However, only days after the Eclipse Adayar was ruled out of the King George, while the following week it emerged Desert Crown had picked up an injury that would force him to bypass Ascot. He is now considered unlikely to run again this season.
In the absence of Adayar and Desert Crown in the King George, Westover was sent off the 13/8 favourite and Mishriff a well-backed 5/2 second favourite, but neither horse ran anywhere close to form in a race won in decisive fashion by Pyledriver (126), the outsider of six.
It is fair to say the middle-distance division now has a strikingly different complexion from five weeks ago.
Cometh the hour...
A more positive development, however, is that Baaeed (134) will be entering the division having swept all before him at a mile.
As the ante-post betting for the Juddmonte International suggests, Baaeed will prove very difficult to beat if running close to the level he achieved at a mile. A figure of 134 identifies Baaeed as the joint-highest-rated miler (along with Kingman) since the days of Frankel, while the only middle-distance performers to have equalled or exceeded that mark in the last decade are Enable (134), Golden Horn (134) and Cracksman (136).
The main challenge to Baaeed in the Juddmonte International is likely to come from last year's winner, Mishriff.
Mishriff may have been disappointing in the King George but he has shown on multiple occasions that he is capable of high-class form, and, while he is one of the most versatile performers around, his performance at York last year suggests the Juddmonte provides his optimum conditions.
William Haggas has suggested that if Baaeed comes through his test in the Juddmonte he is likely to tackle the Champion Stakes. That is also the target for Adayar, for whom the September Stakes has been mooted as a starting point.
Adayar has not been seen in action this season but his exploits at three, when he became the first Derby winner since Galileo 20 years earlier to follow up in the King George, mark him out as one of the most talented horses in the division.
He is rated 130 - which is Timeform's benchmark for a top-class performer - as is the latest Derby winner Desert Crown who has the 'p' for potential improver attached to his rating to boot.
Who is lurking in the wings?
With Desert Crown on the sidelines Vadeni (127p) is the highest-rated three-year-old around and he will get the opportunity to enhance his rating in the Irish Champion Stakes next month. He showed a willing attitude to come out on top at Sandown, while the turn of foot that he found to sweep from last to first identifies him as potentially having more to offer.
Last year's Irish Champion Stakes was won by St Mark's Basilica, who ended the season as Timeform's highest-rated performer in Europe, but the lack of a top-quality three-year-old from Ballydoyle this season has had an impact on the quality in the division.
Hopes were high that Luxembourg (122p) could have been that horse after an unbeaten juvenile campaign and promising third in the 2000 Guineas on his return but a setback has kept him off the track since. He could make his return in the Royal Whip at the Curragh on Saturday and wouldn't need to find much improvement to have a big say in some of the leading contests at the back-end of the campaign.
The highest-rated horse at Ballydoyle - excluding the two-year-old Little Big Bear - is the stayer Kyprios (126), who may well step back in trip and have a crack at the Arc. It's certainly looking like an open race at present with the market headed by Japanese raider Titleholder (130) who has shown top-class form in his homeland the last twice to win the Tenno Sho over two miles and the Takarazuka Kinen over 11 furlongs.
Last year's shock Arc winner Torquator Tasso (128) has had his campaign geared around a defence of his title and, on ground faster than he had raced on previously, he ran respectably when two and a quarter lengths behind Pyledriver in the King George on his latest outing.
Others on the periphery
St Leger winner Hurricane Lane (126) was sent off favourite for last year's Arc and ran up to his best in third, but he has disappointed on both starts this season and now has a bit to prove.
Appleby is responsible for this year's St Leger favourite in New London (122p) and he looked like a high-class prospect when winning the Gordon Stakes over a mile and a half at Goodwood recently. Appleby also has a high-class mile-and-a-quarter performer on his hands in Native Trail (125) who ran up to his best when beaten only a neck and a head in third in the Eclipse on his first crack at the trip.
Bay Bridge (126) failed to show his best in the Eclipse and is better judged on what he had shown when winning the Brigadier Gerard and when chasing home the tough and versatile State of Rest (127) in the Prince of Wales's Stakes. State of Rest is set to drop in trip to contest the Prix Jacques le Marois over a mile this weekend, but all four of his Group 1 wins have been achieved at around a mile and a quarter.
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