Horse racing analysis | Havana Grey's best progeny and horses to follow
Adam Houghton charts the rise of exciting young sire Havana Grey, who could see three of his best sons clash in next weekend's Prix Morny at Deauville.
The Prix Morny takes centre stage at Deauville next Sunday, the Group 1 which provided Karl Burke with one of the biggest successes of his career in 2017. Not only did Burke train the winner, Unfortunately, but he also saddled the runner-up, Havana Grey, in a notable 1-2 for the team at Spigot Lodge.
Six years on and it's fair to say that a lot of water has passed under the bridge since that memorable afternoon for Burke at Deauville, with the first two encountering vastly different fortunes.
Unfortunately's career on the racecourse didn't really take off in the way that his two-year-old achievements promised, with his only subsequent victory coming in the Group 3 Renaissance Stakes at the Curragh the following year. He's yet to tear up any trees since being retired to the stallion sheds, either, the sire of only eight individual winners in his first crop of two-year-olds to reach the racecourse in 2022.
Havana Grey, on the other hand, still had his biggest days on the racecourse ahead of him after a juvenile campaign which saw him win a pair of Listed races at Sandown and the Group 3 Molecomb Stakes at Goodwood prior to his runner-up effort in the Prix Morny.
He returned the following year to win the Group 2 Sapphire Stakes at the Curragh before making the breakthrough at the top level later in the season when winning the Flying Five Stakes over the same course and distance (replay below).
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Whilst clearly a smart and precocious sprinter in his own right, few could have predicted the impact Havana Grey made with his first crop of juveniles in 2022.
Having attracted a three-figure book of mares when standing his first season at Whitsbury Manor Stud in Hampshire at a fee of £8,000, he certainly didn't lack for ammunition, but it was the quality of his winners which impressed as much as anything.
Bumper first crop starts with a bang
Havana Grey ended 2022 as the leading first-season sire in Europe with 43 individual two-year-old winners and between them they earned over £1.3 million in total prize money to underline that they were competing in many of the top juvenile races.
They included a trio of Group 3 winners in the autumn in the shape of Eddie's Boy (Prix Eclipse), Lady Hollywood (Prix d'Arenberg) and Rumstar (Cornwallis Stakes). Eddie's Boy had already made a significant contribution to his sire's prize money haul when winning the Super Sprint worth over £98,000 to the winner.
Shouldvebeenaring also won a valuable sales event at York's Ebor Festival, plus a Listed race at Ripon, to make him another of Havana Grey's biggest earners, while Cuban Mistress was a Listed winner at Newbury.
Another standout performer was Maylandsea, who failed to add to her tally after making a successful debut at Nottingham but was placed in pattern company on a couple of occasions. She filled the runner-up spot behind Dramatised in the Queen Mary Stakes at Royal Ascot and was third behind Rumstar in the Cornwallis.
They weren't just out-and-out two-year-olds, either, as several of his talented juveniles from last year have bettered their form in 2023. Holguin is one such example, a smart colt who is now tied with Eddie's Boy as Havana Grey's highest-rated runner on Timeform ratings after his victory in a Listed race at Chester last month.
Great State, who was recently sold to continue his racing career in Hong Kong, also features towards the top of that list following his success in a Listed contest at York, while Mamma's Girl became another Group 3 winner for her sire when landing the Nell Gwyn Stakes earlier in the campaign.
Mamma's Girl is trained by Richard Hannon and her stablemate, Shouldvebeenaring, has continued to thrive on his racing with two wins this year, including another Listed prize at Newmarket, plus a good second behind Little Big Bear in the Group 2 Sandy Lane Stakes at Haydock.
Altogether Havana Grey's first crop has produced 16 horses who have achieved a peak Timeform rating of 95 or above – denoting at least useful form – and the most exciting thing for those closest to him is that the best is seemingly still to come.
Prix Morny contenders star in second crop
That's because the early signs are that Havana Grey's second crop of two-year-olds might prove to be even better than his first, a group which has already thrown up 20 individual winners in Europe. They include five juveniles with a Timeform figure of 95+, plus several just below that benchmark who have a 'p' attached to their rating to denote that they are open to more improvement.
That list is headed by the last-time-out winners Majestic Beauty (90p), Golden Arrow (87p), Harvanna (85p), Ziggy's Condor (84p) and Queen's Guard (80p), all of whom have the potential to go on to better things.
As for his top two-year-old performers in 2023, Listed winner Graceful Thunder (97) and Group 3 Prix de Cabourg third Havana Cigar (97) both deserve a mention, but it's three colts already successful in Group company who have really sets the pulses racing.
The pick of them so far is Simon and Ed Crisford's Vandeek (107p), who was far too good for his rivals when making it two from two in the Group 2 Richmond Stakes at Goodwood last time, only winning by a length but looking value for extra having been in control from a long way out before the runner-up closed him down late on.
Bought for 625,000 guineas at the breeze-ups, Vandeek certainly looks the part and there should be more to come from him when the situation demands it.
Similar comments apply to Jasour (104p), who showed much-improved form when last seen winning the Group 2 July Stakes at Newmarket, finishing strongly from rear to land the spoils by two lengths with a bit in hand.
He was a late absentee from the Richmond due to the testing conditions, but his next appearance on a racecourse should be worth the wait for Clive Cox, who has excelled with similar types in the past.
So too has the aforementioned Karl Burke, who was very complimentary about Elite Status (105+) after he'd run out an impressive five-length winner of the Listed National Stakes at Sandown in May, expressing a belief that this two-year-old could turn out to be an even better racehorse than his sire.
It didn't happen for him when he was sent off a short-priced favourite for the Group 2 Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot, but he got back on track with an authoritative victory in the Prix de Cabourg at Deauville last time, finding extra when challenged in the final furlong to win by a length and a quarter.
Now all roads lead back to Deauville for next weekend's Prix Morny where Burke will be hoping for a repeat of Unfortunately's heroics with a son of that year's runner-up. Elite Status will be made to work for it, though, with top juveniles Ramatuelle (111p plus 3 lb sex allowance) and River Tiber (111p) set to feature among the opposition.
Most interestingly, Vandeek and Jasour have also been earmarked for the race, potentially bringing together three of Havana Grey's best sons as he tries to cap a brilliant start to life in the stallion ranks with a first Group 1 success.
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