Social restrictions may be lifting but the weather is doing its best to keep people indoors with heavy rain forecast for England and Ireland this weekend.
Haydock and the Curragh both look poised for a soaking ahead of big Saturday cards and conditions could play a major role for a series of big races.
Busy the safe choice to follow in Mum’s hoofprints
Thursday golf has been cancelled due to moody weather and the BBC’s Louise Lear is looking stern while warning that “low pressure continues to anchor itself to the north of England.”
Testing ground seems assured for Haydock’s two-day weekend fixture but punters can go with the drizzly flow on Saturday by siding with KEEP BUSY as John Quinn’s filly bids to emulate her dam by landing the Casumo Best Odds Guaranteed Temple Stakes (4.05).
Twelve years have passed since Look Busy and the mighty Slade O’Hara sluiced through the Haydock mud to collar Borderlescott and give Alan Berry the biggest win of his training career.
Keep Busy has followed a similar career path to her Mum, progressing through the ranks to earn a place among the elite, and her fine second to subsequent Breeders’ Cup winner Glass Slippers in the Flying Five at the Curragh last September is one of the most persuasive pieces of form on offer here.
It’s true that Keep Busy didn’t shine first time out last year and stablemate Liberty Beach looms large among dangers after finishing placed at G1 level twice in 2020.
However, if rain arrives in the predicted quantities this year’s Temple takes on a very different complexion.
Keep Busy handles testing ground much better than most and has Oisin Murphy aboard for the first time. The Irishman recorded the first Group race win of his career when Hot Streak landed the 2014 Temple and he heads north with justifiably high hopes that Keep Busy can repeat the dose.
Tactics the key to a Curragh Flare-up
Winners of the Irish 2000 Guineas tend to fall into four categories.
First, you have English Guineas winners like Cockney Rebel, Henrythenavigator, Gleneagles and Churchill who doubled up at the Curragh.
Second, you have horses like Canford Cliffs and Kingman who went close at Newmarket before winning in Ireland.
Third, you have colts like Power and Roderic O’Connor, who blew out badly in England before bouncing back on home soil.
And then there are new shooters like Magician, Awtaad, Romanised, Phoenix Of Spain and Siskin, who swerved Newmarket to peak a few weeks later.
This year's Curragh line-up features a blend of horses from all four categories and the prospect of deep ground adds a further layer of complexity.
Van Gogh, Wembley and Battleground are on the bounceback trail after bombing at Newmarket and none of them can be dismissed lightly under very different conditions.
HQ third Lucky Vega has headed the market all week but could find his stamina tested if the ground gets very soft, while Mac Swiney and La Barrosa arrive from different directions having skipped Newmarket as they try to enhance the strong recent new shooter angle.
👏 Jim Bolger & @kmanning910 combined to land their second Qipco 2000 Guineas at @NewmarketRace on Saturday
— Racing TV (@RacingTV) May 4, 2021
🏆 2021 - Poetic Flare
🏆 2013 - Dawn Approach
The French or Irish 2000 Guineas now awaits Poetic Flare pic.twitter.com/MGCbkeKncC
And what of this year’s Guineas hero Poetic Flare, who refused to let Master Of The Seas and Lucky Vega go by at Newmarket only to disappoint when short of room in the French Guineas last Sunday?
The ability to run hard for long periods has long been the hallmark of Jim Bolger stars, so it came as a big surprise to see Poetic Flare checked back in behind horses as a very messy Longchamp race took shape.
It’s hard to have maximum confidence given the fact that he’s tackling a third Classic in as many weeks but Poetic Flare simply didn’t get much chance to show his true mettle at Longchamp. Soft ground shouldn’t trouble him and much better can be expected if Kevin Manning allows him to roll forward from a good way out this time.
Leeper holds key to Dunlop revival
The key questions surrounding John Leeper’s progress towards the Cazoo Derby are seductive.
What must it be like to train a Derby colt named in honour of your illustrious late father?
How important could this one race prove in re-launching a training career that has stalled since the heady days of Ouija Board, Red Cadeaux and John Leeper’s dam Snow Fairy?
Will it be Frankie, Hollie Doyle or AN Other in the irons on June 5? And how strong is John Leeper’s chance after last week’s Newmarket Listed success?
It’s easy to surmise that John Leeper’s name adds a tantalising layer of emotion to the way Ed Dunlop is approaching this year’s Derby.
And it’s even easier to conclude that, after six years without a G1 winner, the Newmarket handler knows he might have found a horse who can propel him back into the big time.
Debate continues as to who will ride the exciting Frankel colt but, with a certain Italian being on Ballydoyle Speed Dial nowadays, the prospect of the 2021 Grand National and Derby both falling to female riders is real.
Click here for Sky Bet's 'Who will ride John Leeper' market!
👏 An emotional winner for @EdDunlopRacing as John Leeper - the colt named after his late father - stays on strongly under William Buick to win the Fairway Stakes at @NewmarketRace
— Sporting Life (@SportingLife) May 15, 2021
💪 Next stop, @EpsomRacecourse?pic.twitter.com/79yUTyMZHs
But, leaving a range of sentimental angles aside, how good is John Leeper?
He did well to win at Newmarket, finding plenty after pulling hard in a steadily-run race, and the potential for improvement granted a sterner stamina test is clear to see.
Timeform assessed John Leeper’s HQ success with a mark of 113p – leaving him 9lb and 6lb behind Bolshoi Ballet and Hurricane Lane – and a note that the Derby “may come too soon in his development, still quite raw for all he’s clearly a colt of some potential.”
That seems a neat summary – but there’s no question his presence at Epsom adds much-needed romance to a race that has become more about business than box office due to recent Coolmore Derby domination.
Honest Joe a huge loss
Joe Mercer was your favourite jockey's favourite jockey in an era when greats like Piggott, Carson and Eddery were in their pomp.
I didn't know him anything like so well as some but I do recall his feats on Kris, Le Moss, Buckskin and One In A Million forming a key part of my early racing education.
And I vividly remember a fraught Racing Post news shift that involved calling him at home on the day that Frankie Dettori and Ray Cochrane survived a plane crash while taking off from Newmarket in June 2000.
The fact that Mercer had been involved in a plane crash back in 1972 made him an obvious reference point as part of the breaking story.
Mercer helped pull colleagues from the wreckage that day but was unable to save the pilot. Cochrane experienced something very similar on Newmarket Heath in 2000 and Mercer had dread in his voice as he immediately asked “is the pilot Patrick?"
Tragically, it was. Patrick Mackey was a good friend of Mercer’s and it was a measure of the man that he absorbed the bad news and still took time to describe his own trauma and how it affected him.
Mercer partnered the great Brigadier Gerard to smash the Ascot track record in the Prince of Wales’s Stakes just two days after his brush with death.
Legend has it that he collapsed in the weighing room afterwards. But, almost fifty years on, Honest Joe still stands tall as one of the most respected riders Britain has ever produced. The decision to run next week’s Brigadier Gerard Stakes in his honour is a very fitting tribute indeed.
Jardine on lookout after so-called ‘plot’ goes west
Find a trainer with several big-priced horses running on the same day then combine them in multiples in weak overnight markets for relative peanuts and wait to cash out or lay off when prices capitulate.
Iain Jardine joined DJ Jeffreys on the list of trainers at the centre of one of the latest punting capers this week and it came as no surprise to hear him describe the episode as “embarrassing” after the four horses in question were beaten at Carlisle and Redcar.
What can be done to help the harassed handlers? Not much is the short answer, though putting a name to the faces behind the so-called plots shouldn’t be impossible.
Jardine's choice of the word "victimised" is very interesting given that both he and Jeffreys have done well with recruits from other yards.
Perhaps it’s far-fetched to suggest that a few current or former Trading Room gamekeepers may be turning poacher as a means of evening the score. But in this strange game, you can never be quite sure.
Teetan pays tribute to fallen brother
This win was for Nooresh 🕊.
— Xaviere Cottereau (@Pixiexavy) May 16, 2021
An amazing performance from both the jockey @KarisTeetan and the horse #RegencyGem for trainer Chris So.
Always remember to be kind to people, especially the ones you love, you never know what they go through or when their last day will come 🙏🏻. https://t.co/hW5nGIgXhO
Out of sight should never mean out of mind when it comes to jockeys killed in action and racing lost another notable name when Nooresh Juglall died in a fall in his native Mauritius last weekend. HK star Karis Teetan described Juglall as “like a brother to me,” while his decision to donate all his riding fees from Wednesday’s Happy Valley card was followed by another striking gesture as owner Koo Ming-kown pledged the £70,000 won by his Valley winner Xiang Bai Qi to a fund in aid of Juglall’s wife and two children.
Ex pros add intrigue to Watson case
It’s probably not the best idea to claim you are being victimised ahead of an appeal. All the same, it’s hard not to sympathise with Jason Watson after his controversial seven-day ban for failing to ride out slow-starting Noisy Night at Nottingham on Tuesday. Much is often made of the value of professional input into the stewarding mix nowadays. And, with that in mind, it’s interesting to note that former riders Steve Drowne and Fergus Sweeney were both on duty at Colwick Park.
By George, he’s got it
9 winners from 17 juvenile runners this year!
— Racing TV (@RacingTV) May 15, 2021
Cachet (Aclaim) continues the fine work of the @gbougheyracing team in the opener at @NewmarketRace @NicolaCurrie22 @HighclereRacing pic.twitter.com/UgMPwZidvx
This George Boughey character is making moves. A running total of 35 winners at a hit rate of 27 per cent – with 69 of 132 runners finishing placed - tells its own story. The young Newmarket handler is still making his way in the world but his future, short and long term, is surely very bright indeed.
Masks mandatory, helmets optional…
Finally, a memo to French stalls handlers. Wearing a mask while loading nervous thoroughbreds might help you stop catching Covid. And wearing a crash helmet will definitely help with something even more dangerous if one of them lashes out.
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