The Timeform expert has two bets in the Guinness Galway Hurdle where he expects one recent trend to continue.
Irish racing tips: Thursday July 31
1pt win Mr Percy in 4.30 Galway at 10/1 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power, BoyleSports)
1pt win Jalila Moriviere in 4.30 Galway at 12/1 (bet365, Coral)
This year’s Guinness Galway Hurdle looks a typically difficult puzzle to solve - just 5lbs separates 14 of them on our figures.
Top of the ratings is Ndaawi who was runner-up in this last year and finished second in the County Hurdle at Cheltenham on his only subsequent start over hurdles. He’s 11lbs higher from this time last year but is still relatively lightly-raced in this sphere and there should be more to come from him. I wouldn’t put anyone off him.
Top of the market as I write is Puturhandstogether for the Joseph O’Brien yard. He won the Fred Winter at Cheltenham by a wide margin but has since had his limitations exposed to a degree in Graded company.
But in fairness, he was a little better than the result would suggest in the Grimes Hurdle at Tipperary the last day, and that run should have put him spot-on for this. He’s the sole four-year-old in the race and that age group have won the last two renewals.
At the other end of the spectrum, you have to go back a long way to find the last 11 or 12 year-old to win which does temper enthusiasm a little bit for the likes of Winter Fog, Enniskerry and Lord Erskine, three admirable veterans who have a chance on form but the stats are against them.
Dysart Enos is the sole British raider. She has a big chance if she can reproduce the form of her Greatwood and Scottish Champion Hurdle runs, but she does like to come from off the pace and that’s not always an easy thing to do in a Galway Hurdle. She’s going to need plenty of luck if they adopt those hold-up tactics.
I think it will be a well-run race. We know Gaucher is a confirmed front-runner and he’d be dangerous if he got a soft lead but that seems unlikely with the likes of Royal Hollow and Casheldale Lad in the race.
With that in mind I think the ones to concentrate on are those who like to race close to the pace and stay a little further.
The two that I’ve come down on are MR PERCY from the Joseph O’Brien yard and Willie Mullins’ JALILA MORIVIERE.
Along with Tony Martin they’ve been responsible for the last 11 winners of this race and I think that’s a trend that might well continue this year.
Mr Percy was just touched off in a flat handicap at this meeting last year and is two from two since they put cheekpieces on him, in a graded hurdle at Fairyhouse and a competitive handicap at the Curragh last time.
I think he's on a fair mark and has a lot in his favour.
Jalila Moriviere is relatively lightly-raced and has only had three runs for Mullins, the pick of which was a fourth placed finish at Punchestown behind Hey Sunshine in a Listed two-and-a-half mile handicap hurdle.
I think two miles on a stiff track like this will really suit her, she gets in off the same mark here and she has the assistance of Paul Townend for the first time.
Published at 1505 BST on 30/07/25
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