Newmarket analysis from Graham Cunningham | Poetic Flare steps up and Santa Barbara in Epsom picture

'The Guineas are always the best guides to the Derby and Oaks.'

So goes one old racing maxim bandied about once talk turns to Epsom - but does it ring true?

The short answer is that they are when they contain the right horses. And the slightly more useful one is that since the year 2000 the 1000 and 2000 Guineas have both produced the Oaks and Derby winner at a clip of just under one year in every four.

Kazzia, Minding and Love all flagged their Oaks credentials by landing the 1000, while Casual Look went on to Epsom success after finishing sixth in a vintage renewal won by Russian Rhythm and Qualify scored at Epsom (pipping Guineas heroine Legatissimo) after finishing last behind that filly at HQ.

Meanwhile, Sea The Stars and Camelot both did the 2000/Derby double, while Sir Percy, New Approach, Australia and Masar finished second, second, third and third at Newmarket before galloping to Epsom glory.

A 21-year sample suggests that it’s a little shorter than even money that the 2021 Guineas races will throw up an Oaks or Derby winner. Defeat in May clearly doesn’t preclude joy in June – but how do this weekend’s big names shape up with less than five weeks to go?

Poetic Flare

Turned last year’s Dewhurst form completely on its head with a 2000 display of hard running and guts that had ‘School of Bolger’ written all over it.

He’s not as fiery as his sire Dawn Approach – who won this race before self-destructing on Derby day – but he doesn’t have an Epsom entry. The Bolge doesn’t seem that way inclined. Then again, he wasn’t that way inclined with New Approach until a dramatic late reverse ferret in 2008.

Master Of The Seas

Gave everything in an attempt to become the first Craven winner to win the 2000 since Haafhd in 2004 and is plainly high-class. But his pedigree doesn’t mark him as likely to thrive over further and the clock backs that up. The camera angle obscured what he did in the heat of battle but the splits show that he peeled off a 10.66s furlong running into the Dip. That sort of pace suggests that G1 assignments at the Curragh and Royal Ascot are on his agenda.

Lucky Vega

Holds the Derby entry after a battling third but certainly isn’t bred for that trip and a rematch with the first, second or both over a mile looks his most likely option.

That Ballydoyle trio

Yes, that Ballydoyle trio indeed. Eighth, eleventh and thirteenth wasn’t in the script for three colts rated 114, 118 and 112 but Van Gogh, Wembley and Battleground were left floundering.

Possible excuses? Well, it shouldn’t be forgotten that, besides being a Covid year, 2020 was also very much an easy ground season for the most part and the O’Brien trio clearly didn’t relish running hard into the Dip on this much faster surface.

And, for anyone tempted to dismiss them over the next month or so, it’s worth remembering that they are trained by a bloke who won two Irish Guineas and an Oaks with a trio – namely Roderic O’Connor, Power and Qualify – who were beaten a combined total of 116 lengths on Guineas weekend!

Chindit, Mutasaabeq and Thunder Moon

No excuses, immature and complete blowout in that order. Chindit ran a solid fifth but clearly needs to find extra to thrive at G1 level, while Mutasaabeq was a shade free early and will be suited by going back to seven or even six furlongs.

Whichever way you slice it, Thunder Moon ran a stinker. My thanks to colleague Jim McGrath for noting that Joseph O’Brien’s colt was very coltish in the preliminaries. That may explain his clunker but he looked like a pony next to Battleground at the stalls and it’s a long way back from here.

Mohaafeth

He didn’t run in the Guineas but William Haggas’s fast-improving Frankel colt is now as short as 7-1 for the Derby after making mincemeat of three rivals in a Newmarket Stakes won in recent years by high-class horses like Mishriff, Hawksbill and Noble Mission.

The style of the success was impossible to fault and Mohaafeth is bred to have no problems with the Derby trip. What’s not to like, then? In short, it’s mainly a clock thing.

It’s hardly Mohaafeth’s fault that Percy’s Lad ran a stinker and Secret Protector regressed from a promising run or that Inigo Jones has little in the way of acceleration. But it is well worth stressing that comparisons with the earlier handicap won by 103-rated Bell Rock show that Mohaafeth simply didn’t have to run very fast at any part of the race before sauntering clear.

He’s an exciting colt and it looks like Epsom could be next but he looked an edgy sort beforehand and it’s very hard to gauge whether he’s a potential Derby winner based on this performance.

Santa Barbara

The aura of brilliance is bruised but the potential remains there for all to see after Aidan O’Brien’s filly finished fourth behind stablemate Mother Earth in Sunday’s 1000 Guineas.

Hard to fault bar the odd whinny in the paddock, she drifted in the market but ran with bundles of promise in the circumstances, travelling more freely than ideal but mixing it with a clutch of seasoned Group race fillies until drifting noticeably left up the hill.

Mother Earth will stay at a mile for the Irish Guineas, while O’Brien now has a little under five weeks to knock the rough edges off Santa Barbara before she lines up for the Cazoo Oaks.

Not for the first time, it’s a case of weighing considerable potential against possible chinks in the armour. Santa Barbara plainly needs to relax better but she’s bred to thrive over middle distances.

It’s clear that Aidan thinks she is much his best Oaks prospect. And, with significant further progress on the cards and none of the other Guineas fillies appealing for Epsom, there is ample reason to believe that this performance enhanced her Epsom credentials rather than detracted from them.

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