Grand National: Weighty issues | Horses 'well-in' and 'wrong' at the weights in the 2022 renewal

History of the well-in brigade

The roll call of Grand National winners is littered with those who were ahead of the handicapper going into the big race – although being well ahead of the assessor is far from an automatic route to glory.

Rough Quest was over a stone ahead of the handicapper when he won the National in 1996 after finishing second to Imperial Call in the Cheltenham Gold Cup on his previous start, a smooth ride from Mick Fitzgerald ensuring he made no mistake in Liverpool from a perch of 152.

Plenty of others with just as obvious claims from a handicapping perspective have failed, though – think Garrison Savannah, Cool Ground and The Last Samuri, while last year Cloth Cap was fully a stone well-in before he was pulled up before three from home.

Several horses that have had a little bit in hand of the handicapper have prevailed in the National, with Minella Times being the latest last year when he had 4lb in his back pocket before storming to a historic win under Rachael Blackmore.

Selected horses that were well ahead of the handicapper in the Grand National

• Garrison Savannah (18lb well in 1991 – 2nd)
• Cool Ground (16lb well in 1992 – 10th)
• Rough Quest (over a stone well in 1996 -1st)
• Synchronised (7lb well in 2012 - Fell)
• Sunnyhillboy (10lb well in 2012 – 2nd)
• Rocky Creek (9lb well in 2015 – 17th)
• The Last Samuri (12lb well in 2016 – 2nd)
• Definitly Red (10lb well in 2017 - PU)
• Anibale Fly (9lb and 8lb well in 2018 – 4th and 2019 – 5th)
• Rathvinden (8lb well in 2019 – 3rd)
• Cloth Cap (14lb well in 2021 - PU).

He was one of seven horses that had enhanced their claims following the publication of the weights last year, the others including Farclas, Lord Du Mesnil and Any Second Now who are all back for more this time around.

Any Second Now was 3lb well-in last year and he comes into this year’s race on the back of Bobbyjo Chase success, meaning he’s effectively well-in again given he can run off his new Irish mark of 159.

Owner-mate Anibale Fly has the distinction of being ahead of the handicapper two years running when he was fourth and fifth in 2018 and 2019 respectively, but this year he’s wrong at the weights after a disappointing performance at Gowran following the publication of the handicap.

Easy to back for obvious reasons

Unusually there aren’t many that have improved their claims to the handicapper’s annoyance this year with no Cloth Cap-type being a stone well-in.

Indeed, only three horses (in the current top 40) have improved their BHA rating since the National weights were published in February, meaning there are more horses wrong at the weights this year after showing regression.

The one that has the toughest task is Jonjo O’Neill’s Easysland who is an eyebrow-raising 9lb wrong after he was pulled up in the Cross Country at Cheltenham, a race he won by 17 lengths two years ago when he demolished Tiger Roll.

That performance ensured he was rated 167 after that, an effort he was still suffering from when the weights for this year’s National were framed, Martin Greenwood allotting him a rating of 159 after seeing him just twice over hurdles this season, where he was pulled up on both occasions.

With the Cross Country evidence now in place he’d be running off 150 if able to run off his new mark, so it’s no wonder the once highly-touted eight-year-old has drifted out to 100/1.

Lostintranslation is 7lb wrong on the back of running in the first handicap of his career at the Cheltenham Festival, his 19-and-a-half length eighth in the Ultima off a rating of 155 firm evidence he’s up against it at Aintree from a mark of 157.

Horses wrong at the weights in the 2022 Grand National

• Good Boy Bobby -1lb, Kildisart -1lb, Blaklion -1lb
• Lord Du Mesnil -3lb, Dingo Dollar -3lb, Cloth Cap -3lb
• Lostintranslation -7lb
• Easysland -9lb

Gold the one with the most in hand

Finally, the three that are ahead of the assessor don’t even include Delta Work, who won the Cross Country at Cheltenham after battling with Festival legend and dual-National winner Tiger Roll, his stablemate, in a thriller last month.

The pair ran 21 lengths ahead of the third, the 138-rated Plan Of Attack, so his rating of 160 remains the same even if his claims were considered to have been significantly enhanced by the market, given he’s now 8/1 from the 66/1 he was pre-Cheltenham.

Two For Gold is the one best in at the weights in this year’s race, his excellent second to Fakir D’oudaries in the Grade 1 Betfair Ascot Chase making him 5lb well-in and he’s arguably value for a few pounds more.

That career-best effort puts him in a good place ahead of Aintree, but he does have to prove he stays after he was pulled up in the 2020 Ladbrokes Trophy – the only time he’s ventured over three miles.

Fiddlerontheroof and Snow Leopardess are the other two in the top 40 that are marginally ahead of the handicapper, with Éclair Surf and Fortescue, numbers 43 and 44 respectively, both set to be 4lb well in should they line up, the former on the back of Win My Wings collateral form and the latter following his Ascot win in February, days after the National weights were released.

Both will be of major interest should they sneak in the race proper.

Horses well-in at the weights in the 2022 Grand National

• Two For Gold +5lb
• Éclair Surf +4lb
• Fortescue +4lb
• Fiddlerontheroof +2lb
• Snow Leopardess +1lb

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