Graeme North Cheltenham analysis and tips
Timing expert Graeme North has three selections on the opening day of the 2023 Cheltenham Festival, including one at double-figure odds.
Recommended bets
Back Fastorslow in the 14.50 Cheltenham at 9/1
Back Echoes In Rain in the 16.10 Cheltenham at 10/1
Back Gaillard Du Mesnil in the 17.30 Cheltenham at evens
One of the drawbacks to writing a tipping piece a day ahead of the action is that the exact state of the ground is unknown. Saturday’s action at Ayr, where there were 30 non-runners, is a timely reminder that the Clerk of the Course's going description (good in the case of Ayr) and the actual going on raceday (Good to Firm, according to Timeform) are often two completely different things, which is why Timeform always returns an independent time-based assessment of the ground.
We won’t know the exact state of underfoot conditions at Cheltenham on Tuesday until after a few races but, reading between the lines of the forecast and applying a bit of common sense, I’m inclined to think the ground won’t be quite as soft as feared, so will proceed on that basis.
The opening Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle has a rather different look to the one it would have had had Facile Vega won the Grade 1 Brave Inca at the Dublin Racing Festival instead of backing out tamely in the home straight, after which he was found to be lame.
He's still favourite for this, and his previous ready defeat of Brave Inca winner Il Etait Temps at Leopardstown over Christmas in a 151 timefigure is still up there with the best form on the clock in the field, but as opposed to having only a few rivals show up to take him on, as might have been the case, he now faces 13 opponents.
They include Il Etait Temps (151 in the Brave Inca), as well as the unbeaten Marine Nationale whose Royal Bond win over Irish Point in a 148 timefigure gives him just 3lb to find on time, plus a host of potential improvers.
When Willie Mullins revealed after the Brave Inca that Facile Vega would be ridden differently in the Supreme my idea of a bet was High Definition in the market without Facile Vega, my reasoning being that no connections would want their charge to get into a front-running battle with a horse capable of running a 115 timefigure in Group 1 company on the Flat.
However, a 14-strong field means a solo out in front for High Definition is less likely than it seemed a few weeks ago so I’m happy to sit this one out. What a fascinating opener, however.
The following Sporting Life Arkle is no less enthralling, not least because the unexpected declaration of front runners Ha D’Or and Effernock Fizz has put a rather different spin on matters from a pace perspective.
Ha D’Or looks to be one of those ‘social’ runners, and backers of the supposed Willie Mullins first string El Fabiolo won’t want a repeat of the scenario that developed in the Spring Juvenile Hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival when a Rich Ricci outsider hampered and sunk the hopes of stablemate and odds-on favourite Lossiemouth.
Much like the Supreme, my initial thinking a couple of weeks ago was that Dysart Dynamo might also get a solo out in front, but, again, that looks unlikely now and, remembering he caused a false start in the Supreme last year by bolting the tapes, he might just end up lighting up a few at the start.
Irish Arkle winner El Fabiolo (156) has a 4lb advantage over Kingmaker winner Jonbon (152) on time, but I find it very hard to split them. I tipped Saint Roi each-way in this column last year in the Champion Hurdle market paying four places and he did well to finish fourth given the steady pace wouldn’t have suited him.
This potentially fiercely-run contest looks right up his street in the expectation he’ll get a patient ride, and he is just about the best of these on time over hurdles. However, he’s quite long in the tooth for a novice chaser and I'm not sure whether he can quite step up as much as he'll likely need to. I can overlook him for all he seems to have the ideal set-up.
My first bet is Fastorslow who looks to have been laid out for the Ultima. He was last seen over an inadequate 17 furlongs in the Grade 1 Dublin Chase but would be top on time on his efforts over hurdles, which include second places at both the Cheltenham (Coral Cup, 149 timefigure) and Punchestown Festivals last season.
He’s not far behind that level in just two starts over fences in Ireland, having run a 146 behind Galopin Des Champs at Punchestown before Christmas, and he has the tongue tie back on for the first time since Punchestown Festival.
The step up to three miles and one furlong won’t be a problem, a mark of 150 doesn’t look excessive and he brings a touch of class to a race contested mostly, to my eyes anyway, by exposed, and in some cases, jaded handicappers.
With Constitution Hill holding a 20lb advantage on times in the Champion Hurdle and the Fred Winter a bigger guessing game than most Cheltenham races (Perseus Way and Mighty Mo Missouri are best on the clock) that leaves the Mares’ Hurdle and National Hunt Challenge Cup.
The latter has a horse, Gaillard Du Mesnil, nearly as far clear (14lb) on times as Constitution Hill with credentials just as solid yet is available at even money as opposed to 4/11.
I’ve read in several places by those looking to oppose him that he’s not a certain stayer, but that conveniently ignores the fact that he finished third last season in the Irish Grand National off a mark of 154, besides which he has run three timefigures of 150 or more over both hurdles and fences, including in Grade 1 company at two and a half miles which is something his rivals can only dream about.
He's got a wealth of experience and has a massive class edge in a race that’s unlikely to be strongly run, so he’s a very confident bet. He should be 4/7 in my opinion.
I'm also backing Echoes In Rain in the Mares' Hurdle. Like several other races on the day, the complexion of the contest has changed in the last few days with 2022 Mares' winner Marie's Rock now defending her crown.
Honeysuckle has the best claims on the clock if you go back a couple of years and would most undoubtedly be the most popular winner of the week, but her recent form isn’t what it is was in her pomp and there’s every chance that Echoes In Rain would have beaten her in the Hatton's Grace had she not tipped up two out when still travelling strongly.
Had that scenario played out, she’d be nearly disputing favouritism for this race instead of being available at 10/1. An easy winner since of the Limestone Lad Hurdle, she sets the standard on the clock on recent efforts and looks likely to get the strong pace that will bring out the best in her hold-up style.
Patrick Mullins knows her well and she’s a better horse this year than when fifth not beaten far behind Marie's Rock last season. I'd have her at 11/2.
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