It's the final round of the CJ CUP Byron Nelson today and Matt Cooper has a couple of bets in mind ahead of Sunday's play.
Golf betting tips: The CJ CUP Byron Nelson final round
3pts Sam Burns and Kevin Yu to win their two-balls at 1.72/1 (bet365)
1pt Jordan Spieth to finish top 10 at 18/5 (General)
If you had told someone at the back end of last year that Scottie Scheffler would be without a win through the first four months of 2025 they’d have had good reasons to suspect you’d been drinking.
The World No. 1 did, after all, win four times in 2022, added another three in 2023, and was then victorious on nine occasions last year. But, even within that exceptional record, he was especially potent in February, March and April. He teed it up in 22 tournaments in those three months during 2022-24 and won no less than ten times.
This year, of course, it has been very different. It started in klutzy fashion when he contrived to cut his hand on a wine glass on Christmas Day, forcing him to miss all of January. In his eight starts in this February, March and April he finished in the top 25 every time, finished top 12 six times, was third in the Genesis Invitational, second in the Houston Open and fourth in the Masters. As a career, there are many golfers who’d take that small sample and run. For Scheffler it was a let-down; for a man who has flown on a wet sail for three years it was the equivalent of hitting the Doldrums.
This week in The CJ CUP Byron Nelson at TPC Craig Ranch outside Dallas, Texas that has changed. Scheffler’s got wind back in his sails and has sliced his way through the waves and the field (rather than his mitts).
He’s carded 61-63-66 to sit on 23-under 190 through 54 holes which leaves him fully eight shots clear of Erik Van Rooyen, Adam Schenk and Ricky Castillo. Scheffler leads the field in Strokes Gained Approach (9.413) and is second Off the Tee (4.916).
He’s carded 72 or better in 47 of his last 50 final rounds and the three failures were at Bay Hill, Muirfield Village and TPC Sawgrass which is to say on much, much harder tracks than TPC Craig Ranch. If he were to card a 1-over 72 this Sunday those in second would still have to go lower than they have already this week to force extra holes.
And Scheffler with a 54-hole lead is a tough nut to crack. True, the first time it happened, in the 2021 Houston Open, a one shot lead was not enough for the win. It’s also true that a two shot lead in the 2022 Charles Schwab Challenge was insufficient.
But in-between those two results a three shot lead at this stage in the Masters was maintained through 72 holes and since that Charles Schwab result he’s 5-for-5 at converting a 54-hole solo advantage – and his current lead is bigger (much bigger) than any of those he’s had in the past.
He made his first ever PGA Tour start in this event when a senior at high school and he’s a Texas resident who loves playing in the state. He also missed playing this event last year because his wife was giving birth to their first child – playing this week has revived memories of that much-loved experience.
All of which is to say, he’s the reddest of red hot favourites, priced 1/200 and has therefore taken the outright market out of play for the preview. Pity anyone who backed Van Rooyen, Schenk or Castillo, has them in a tie for second with 18 holes to play, and they’re all still available at 200/1+!
Van Rooyen isn’t quitting. While admitting that it’s “a mountain to climb”, he added: “I’m ready for it and I’m so competitive. I’m always going to back myself and give myself a chance.”
But we’ll stick to the two-balls.
Let’s kick off by supporting SAM BURNS against Mark Hubbard. The latter has three top 20s in 28 starts in Texas on the top two tiers and is yet to finish top 30 in three tries at TPC Craig Ranch. Burns has six top 10s in Texas in 16 starts and they’ve all come in his last 10 visits. He did miss the cut last time he was at Craig Ranch (73-67) but he was second in 2021. T13 last time out at Harbour Town was a fillip after a rough spell and he has a touch of class.
We’d double up with KEVIN YU’s experience to better Ross Steelman. The latter is on a rare venture to the PGA Tour and hasn’t been in great form. Yu was a winner late last year, has four top 20s in his last eight starts and one of them was when he was T16 in the Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale which, like TPC Craig Ranch, was designed by Tom Weiskopf. Both selections are best price 4/6 and the double pays 1.72/1.
Finally take JORDAN SPIETH to enjoy the final round and finish top 10.
He’s currently three shots outside that mark but he’s landed two top 10s in his three previous visits to the course, has nine of them in his last 17 Texas starts and, while he doesn’t have one in his last three appearances anywhere, he was top 20 in all of them (and in better fields than this week).
Posted at 1020 BST on 04/05/25
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
