Martin Mathews has a couple of two-ball selections as he previews the final round of the Honda Classic.
Golf betting tips: Honda Classic final round
2pts Shane Lowry to beat Daniel Berger in two ball at 6/5 (Bet365 & Coral)
2pts Nick Watney to beat Mark Hubbard in two ball at 11/8 (Betfred)
For the second week running on the PGA Tour we head into Sunday with one player dominating the event and a big odds-on favourite to take the title.
Last week, despite a slight wobble on the back nine, Joaquin Niemann was able to nurse his big lead home, and this week most people will be expecting 54-hole leader Daniel Berger to do just the same at the Honda Classic.
Berger opened up this week with two rounds of 65 to take control at the halfway stage and with conditions toughening up on Saturday, a one-under-par 69 was enough to see him post a three round total of 11-under and open up a five-shot lead.
One look at Berger’s stats this week will tell you all you need to know, he sits second from tee to green, third in approach play, seventh in putting and 14th around the green. Basically his stock fade off the tee has rarely found him in much trouble and on the odd occasion he has strayed off the ‘dance floor’, his short game has been up to the task.
Floridian born and bred and still based locally in the area, Berger knows exactly how to control his ball flight in the wind around PGA National and having made only two bogeys through 54 holes it would be a brave man too bet against him taking a title today that so narrowly eluded him back in 2014 when he lost out to Padraig Harrington in a play-off.
As always, though, there is a glimmer of light for the chasing pack, and on a course that can easily see big numbers racked up, particularly in the feared ‘Bear Trap’ stretch of 15, 16 and 17, the four-time tour winner gave his pursuers hope by making a scrappy bogey, only his second of the week, on the closing par-five 18th on Saturday.
Of those pursuers, the biggest threat on paper comes from the man who will keep Berger company on Sunday, 2019 Open Champion Shane Lowry.
While many of the less experienced players in the mix struggled on Saturday, the Irishman shot the low round of the day, 67, to move himself in to contention on six-under.
Gaining over four shots from tee to green, but for a couple of shorter misses on the greens, Lowry could easily have shot lower, and in an event that has been kind to Open Champions over the years, you would expect him to keep Berger on his toes today.
If Lowry is to reel Berger in though he will ultimately need some help from his rival and I just don’t see him giving it. The leader will know that anything around par, or even one or two over today, will most likely be enough and having shown in the past when closing out his maiden tour title at the Fedex St Jude that he can win from the front, I expect the gritty Floridian to tough it out today.
From that point of view, while I think overhauling the leader may be a bridge too far for him, with Berger knowing a level-par round should suffice, the odd-against on Lowry to see off Berger in their two ball when they tee off at 1.35pm local time appeals, and I am happy to side with him here.
Three other players will start the day tied in second place with Lowry, Sepp Straka, Kurt Kitayama and Chris Kirk and along with Adam Svensson , in lone seventh place on five-under, they are the only other players who will harbour realistic hopes of posting a win today as the next nearest challenger is back on two-under.
Of this quartet, Kirk is by far the most experienced and it looked for most of yesterday that he would remain the leader's closest pursuer, however a double bogey on the 14th, where he was also under the threat for a period after of further penalty, having dislodged some tree branches on his back swing, derailed his challenge and with his tee ball game regressing on Saturday he may well find it tough to get back on track.
Off the remaining contenders preference would be for the steadier Straka over Kitayama who has been prone this week to some loose swings at key times, while another local man Svensson, who leads the field from tee to green this week, could also be a factor if he can re produce a similar ball striking display to Friday, which saw him find all 18 greens, and crucially get his putter to warm up.
Ultimately though it's most likely the best these four can hope for is a runner up cheque.
Looking at the remainder of Sunday's two balls and there is one more odds against shot that appeals to me and that is Nick Watney who will tee it up against Mark Hubbard at 12.15pm local time.
Watney, of course, is not the player he once was, however he has shown some signs already this season, notably when runner up at the Sanderson’s in the Fall, that he still has plenty of game in him. This week he has built on an improved performance at the Genesis last week to post three solid rounds, with his tee-to-green stats improving daily.
Hubbard’s week, however, has been built on a hot putter on Thursday and Friday, and after his day two 64 he regressed badly yesterday to shoot 75.
While Hubbard does have one strong finish in the books here, Watney has produced a host of solid efforts here over the years, making all of his last eight cuts. I am more than happy to wrap things up today by trusting him at 11/8.
