Matt Cooper looks ahead to the final round of the Valero Texas Open where the conditions could test leader Brian Harman.
Golf betting tips: Valero Texas Open final round
1pt win Sami Valimaki at 45/1 (William Hill)
1pt Sami Valimaki top 3 at 13/2 (bet365)
1pt Matt Wallace and Antoine Rozner to win their three-balls at 6.9/1 (Paddy Power)
It’s getting on for nearly two years since Brian Harman won the Open at Royal Liverpool with one of the more straightforwardly resilient performances witnessed in recent major championships. The fans took against him and doubted his heart. The press took against his fondness for hunting and butchering. The weather took against everyone.
Harman looked up, waggled, looked up, waggled, looked up, waggled, looked up, waggled, looked up, waggled. He didn’t make a fuss of being positively riled by the human and meteorological aggression towards him. He just got on with it and he’s doing it again this week on the Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio in the Valero Texas Open.
With 18 holes to play before the golf world literally or metaphorically heads up Magnolia Lane for the Masters, Harman leads the way on 12-under-par 204 and his pursuers are distant. Andrew Novak is three back in second, Tom Hoge four back alone in third, Keith Mitchell is solo fourth and five back. Sami Valimaki, Chad Ramey and Ryo Hisatsune share fifth and are half a dozen shots in arrears of the pace-setting Harman.
Saturday’s third round lacked the rain of Hoylake 2023 but the wind played havoc with the scores. Only seven players defeated par and Novak, Hoge, Valimaki and Ramey were among them with the latter three making significant early moves up the leaderboard.
“Just a tough day, man,” said the leader after carding a level-par 72 to sit alongside opening rounds of 66-66. In a lovely little exchange he was then asked how he’d deal with Sunday.
“Well, I doubt it's going to be worse than today,” he started. “I think it might be,” the questioner warned. “Okay,” Harman replied. “I’ll trust you, you’re probably from around here. So, you just go out and you do your best. You hit good shots, try to make putts and if you miss the green, you get up and down.”
In the first two rounds he was magnificent both into the greens and with putter in hand. His stats dropped away on Saturday but he remains confident and alert. “Certainly know that I can do it,” he said. “But the guys that are behind me, they’re hungry, man, they’re coming.”
With the exception of 2013, when Martin Laird carded a final round 63 from five back in a share of seventh, and 2010, when Adam Scott won from fifth and three back, the Oaks Course has favoured pace-setters. The other 13 winners (including Davis Riley in one second tier event) were tied third or better at stage and no more than two blows back.
That knowledge, memories of the Open and the fact that his six nearest challengers include four non-winners at PGA Tour level and two one-time winners, has Harman priced 4/6 to win.
Novak is yet to win at this level but has experience of contending – just not great experience unless he’s learned lessons (which is entirely possible and the best way of getting to grips with the task).
He just does have a habit of getting in the mix on Saturday and struggling on Sunday: 69 to be third in the 2022 Puerto Rico Open followed by a 74, 67 to be second in the 2023 Canadian Open followed by a 72, 69 to be third in the 2024 Phoenix Open followed by a 72, 62 in last year’s Bermuda Championship followed by a 71, 66 in this year’s Farmers Insurance Open followed by a 71, 65-78 at Bay Hill and 68-75 at Innisbrook in recent weeks. He’s best price 19/4.
Local man Hoge, winner of the 2022 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-am and third last time out at the Players Championship, was ninth on the course back in 2016 and said after the third round: “I’ve been at home in Fort Worth the last few weeks and it’s been really windy so certainly felt comfortable in these conditions.” He’s 10/1 and tempting.
Mitchell’s one win at this level came at blustery PGA National in 2019 and he’s on track to make it four top 30s in four visits to the course while also landing his first top 10. “Brian’s going to have to come backwards for us to catch him,” he admitted. “With the wind looking even stronger, it’s going to be a test and you’re going to have to win with pars.” He’s 14/1.
Of that final trio SAMI VALIMAKI prompts interest. Back in 2020 Ben Coley tipped him at 250/1 when he won the Oman Open at the breezy Al Mouj. Ben had been impressed by the Finn’s excellent performance at the windy 13th Beach earlier in the season and a second round 67 in trying conditions was key to his Oman triumph. In 2023 he won the Qatar Masters at blustery Doha.
Second in last year’s Mexico Open he’s been solid in recent weeks. He was T15 in the Farmers Insurance Open, top 10 through 36 holes back at the Mexico Open, started the Cognizant Classic with a 63, opened the Valspar Championship (in a decent breeze) with a first round co-leading 67 and was fourth last week in Houston.
The each way terms are pretty nasty (1/3 1,2) so we’ll opt for a convoluted strategy of one point on the win at 45/1 and 1 point for a top three. That obviously opens up the possibility of getting a bigger price on exchanges.
In the three-balls we’ll support Englishman MATT WALLACE who had a horrible front nine on Saturday but was pretty solid coming home. He’ll be sore about the 77 he carded and is likely to have done work to remedy his errors. He did open the Farmers Insurance Open 77-77 but otherwise in recent times his big scores have seen bounce backs: 77-71, 77-67, 77-71, 76-68. He’s up against Mac Meissner and Carson Young.
We’ll make it a bold double by adding Frenchman ANTOINE ROZNER who looks over-priced to defeat Harry Hall and the amateur Ben James. They all struggled on Saturday but Rozner was excellent when carding a 65 on Friday at 5/2 might tempt some as a single. We’ll take the double at 6.9/1.
Posted at 1020 BST on 06/04/25
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