Scottie Scheffler and Matt Fitzpatrick lead the way going into the final round at Olympia Fields but Dave Tindall is looking further down the leaderboard for value.
Golf betting tips: BMW Championship Final Rd
1pt e.w. Viktor Hovland at 14/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3)
1pt e.w. Max Homa at 10/1 (bet365, Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3)
You’d expect the serious players from season 2022/23 to be gathering near the top of the leaderboard as the PGA Tour’s penultimate event heads towards its climax. And that was very much the case when the dust settled on round three of the BMW Championship at Olympia Fields on Saturday.
So we have the World No.1, Scottie Scheffler, tied for the lead with Matt Fitzpatrick, the 2022 US Open champion who added another title at Hilton Head in April. Open champion Brian Harman, continuing his golden summer, sits a shot back in third, Farmers Insurance Open winner and back-to-form Max Homa is fourth while US PGA runner-up and Memorial champ Viktor Hovland is fifth alongside none other than Rory McIlroy.
Another way of referring to that leading half-dozen is the World Nos. 1, 2, 5, 7, 8 and 10. They’re separated by just three shots and, on first glance, it’s hard to think the winner doesn’t come from that elite group despite those four off the pace including Sam Burns, Xander Schauffele and Justin Rose.
And yet, this seems to be a course with a wide range of scoring. If you’re on you’re on, if you’re a little off, you’re punished. Burns shot a 62 on day three while Homa, who had fired that same 8-under-par score himself in round two, had to settle for a 1-over 71 on Saturday. Ironically he left the course in fairly positive mood after birdies at 15 and 17 combined with a closing bogey from Fitzpatrick saw a five-shot deficit become just two.
Jon Rahm - not a factor here after falling a whopping 14 shots back after middle rounds of 74-71 - won the last edition of this event at Olympia Fields in 2020 by coming through with a storming final 36 holes after being tied 39th and seven back at halfway. And I’m tempted to buy into that idea given the dispersion of scores we’ve seen.
Scheffler clearly has a bunch of momentum after moving from five back at halfway to tied first with a round to go. He putted well on Saturday too although he’s still only 28th out of the 49 left standing (Hideki Matsuyama pulled out) in the SG: Putting charts. Quotes of around 5/4 just don’t take the eye.
Fitzpatrick ranks 1st for SG: Putting so far but he’s down at 31st (out of 49 don’t forget) for SG: Off The Tee. Harman is 46th in that category and with the course drying out, that must be somewhat concerning to both if they’re playing catch-up in that department. Scheffler, as you’d expect is 2nd for OTT and 1st for SG: Approach, so very much backing up the ‘if he putts well, he wins’ argument.
But the one I like best in terms of combining price, stats and momentum is VIKTOR HOVLAND. Shop around and you’ll find 14/1. The Norwegian moved eight places up the board to tied fifth place with a 65 in round three and he’ll have the invigorating presence of McIlroy in his two-ball in round four. Hovland shot 64 (R2 Riviera) and 66 (R3 St Andrews) with McIlroy as a partner in 2022. He added a 65 alongside his Ryder Cup colleague in round two of this year’s Travelers Championship. Let’s hope for a similar spark.
On the stats, Hovland is a reassuring 3rd in SG: Off The Tee for the week while in Saturday’s third round he ranked 1st OTT and 4th for both Approach and Tee To Green. Hovland was also 10th for SG: Putting in round three so looks to be coming on strong at the ideal time as he bids to chase down a three-shot deficit on Sunday. “Just hit it really straight, hit a lot of greens and made a lot of putts early on. Yeah, just played really solid and putted well,” was Hovland’s assessment after the round.
As for his ability to chase, Hovland’s last two wins have come from off the pace. He was one back after 54 holes before winning this year’s Memorial in a playoff. And at the 2022 Dubai Desert Classic he sat a full six shots in arrears but fired a 66 to tie and then won again in extra holes. If Hovland can match Saturday’s start - eagle, par, birdie - that’ll put him straight into the mix and hopefully he can go from there and give us a run at 14s.
Playing partner McIlroy will have plenty of supporters as ever and 10/1 could look good. But I just sense an air of good round, average round, good round, average round about him here. That could prove wide of the mark but it’s an inkling that he’ll be saving his very best for the TOUR Championship.
So to give Hovland some support I’ll go to another 10/1 shot. MAX HOMA could easily have fallen away after missing a two-foot putt on the way to a three-over score for the day with five to play. But he didn’t. The Californian hung tough, made a late move and is only two in arrears. Three of his last five PGA Tour wins have come from that exact same deficit so he likes to play the role of lurking hunter.
And these post-round quotes have to offer encouragement too. “I obviously didn't score very well today, but I thought I still played great. I drove it really well. It seemed like my good shots didn't go anywhere near the hole distance wise, and then my bad ones I got punished. I was proud of how I hung in there. If it wasn't for the triple, it was a pretty good round of golf. I obviously know I can play this golf course well, and my game feels good.”
Homa is 3rd for SG: Putting this week and 5th Off The Tee. With progressive form coming in that included a first top 10 in a Major and a sixth in last week’s FedEx St. Jude Championship, he can make a run.
Posted at 1150 BST on 20/08/23
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