George Scott feels there is around a 75% chance that Bay City Roller takes up his engagement in the Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp on Sunday week.
With the recent dry spell the Parisian track has found itself under, chances of this year’s Coolmore Coronation Cup hero appearing in the prestigious mile-and-a-half Group One looked to be in some doubt.
However, with the long range forecast for Paris showing potential for rain, Scott is now more positive about the prospects of the New Bay colt, who chased home last year’s Arc winner, Daryz, in the Group Two Qatar Prix Foy over course and distance, returning to France.
Bay City Roller emerges out the gloom in front of his gallop companion at @NewmarketRace 🏇
— Sporting Life Racing (@SportingLife) September 24, 2026
Trainer @GScottracing feels there is around a 75% chance that he takes up his engagement in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp on Sunday week 🇫🇷 pic.twitter.com/C0rvJIDm45
Scott said: “The forecast is changing all the time. There definitely looks a bit more hope. Different forecasts are saying different things, and we want to be there. Ninety nine chances out of a hundred we wouldn’t be in this situation. The most rain they have had roughly, and not to be nailed on, in September in the last fifteen years, was I think 110mm and the lowest is nine, and the average is 50mm.
“This year they have less than a millimetre. It is absolutely wild, but some of the forecasts are predicting a lot of rain.
“If it is watered ground he will not be running. He needs a lot of natural rainfall between now and then. I would say there is a 75% chance he runs. I think the forecast is definitely tipping in favour of him running. We want to run as it has been the plan the whole way to run in the Arc, but we also realise, and know, what our assets and strengths are."
In order to ensure that the Victorious Forever-owned gelding is spot-on for the big occasion, the Group One-winning trainer put Bay City Roller through his paces with an early morning racecourse gallop at Newmarket on Thursday.
Working under Oisin Murphy, the five-time race winner stretched out well through the closing stages of the seven furlong exercise before passing the post with several lengths in hand over his gallop companion Watch My Tracer.
He added: “Visually that was very good. He is not a great work horse, so we never look for it at home, but I thought Bay City Roller moved beautifully. He looked great out there, but the ground looked beautiful. The first impression was that we are very happy with that.
“Under the circumstances his last run was good, and he came out of it great, so I think it was a great route for him."
While a final decision still needs to be made regarding Bay City Roller’s appearance at Longchamp, there is no such issue with Caballo De Mar, who warmed up for the defence of his Qatar Prix du Cadran crown when taking part in a similar exercise on the Rowley Mile.
After bagging a second Group One at Longchamp in the Prix Vicomtesse Vigier in May, the Phoenix Of Spain gelding then suffered defeats in both the Ascot Gold Cup at the Royal meeting and in the Group Two Lonsdale Cup at York.
But after being satisfied with what he saw in his latest piece of work, Scott believes that the dual Group One winner heads back to Paris with strong claims of building on a confidence boosting win last time out in the Group Two Betfred Howard Wright Doncaster Cup.
Scott added: “He is a notoriously woeful workhorse, but he stretched out beautifully. I think he has come back to himself. He is full of confidence after Doncaster. It was massively important that he won last time for all of us. It was perfect really. You could see that Oisin’s feet were on the dashboard most of the way round.
“I was very nervy going there as he had a very tough race in the Ascot Gold Cup, and that probably left his mark on him, so it was nice to see him bounce back. We know he loves that track as he is two from two in Group Ones there. I was very pleased with him today.”
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