Ian Ogg analyses the last 10 renewals of the William Hill Great St Wilfrid at Ripon on Saturday and picks out the key statistics.
It isn't a huge surprise that two of the three longest priced winners of the William Hill Great St Wilfrid Handicap were the two winners aged seven.
Only Pepper Lane has been returned at longer than 18/1 and she was 20/1 when winning the race for second season in succession in 2012 with a first time hood working a treat. Her trainer, David O'Meara, went on to win the race again in 2014 and he has also saddled the fourth and second home in the last two renewals.
Richard Fahey won this sprint in 2013 and 2015, when also saddling the third, and the runners of both he and O'Meara are an obvious starting point.
Fahey is represented by Growl who has been rated as high as 114 and comes here on the back of a good run in the Stewards' Cup, often a good guide, but given that there has been no winner in the past decade rated higher than 100, he looks to have it all to do from 109 and top-weight.
Kachy also looks too high while the likes of Eastern Impact and Shanghai Glory are on the cusp but the handicap mark of Growl's stablemate George Bowen is no problem, in relation to the stats at least. He ran well in the Stewards' Cup consolation and was second home on his side in last year's consolation for this contest.
Snap Shots fared better in the main race last year, finishing first on his side but sixth overall although he planted himself at the start last time and refused to race. The high numbers dominated that contest (he was the first home to be drawn in single figures) but that hasn't always been the case and it's hard to be too didactic about where it might prove best to be berthed.
Al Qawha has shown enough speed this season to believe he can go well from stall 20 with his run at Goodwood easily excused and headgear applied but Danny Tudhope sticks with Out Do who busted the age stats in the Wokingham and bids to do so again.
Muntadab flopped at York last time and as a result, is back down to the mark from which he was a short-head second over course and distance in April. It would be no surprise to see him run well but a chance if taken with GEORGE DRYDEN who is another to have contested last season's race, won by the returning Nameithwhatyoulike.
An infrequent winner with a career record of three from 19, he was fifth at 33/1 having been beaten only a length and a half. He lines up this year from a 7lb lower mark and hasn't been running as badly as his fall in the ratings or form figures suggest having faced tough tasks in a couple of conditions stakes either side of the Wokingham.
He's run three times over course and distance and has finished second on the two other occasions and it would be reasonable to assume that this race has been his target all season. The fitting of cheekpieces could well benefit this son of Zebedee and although he may need plenty of luck in running, he looks well worth chancing at a best of 25/1 and 20s generally.
Key statistics from the last ten renewals.
- Winners have been aged three, four (2), five (3), six (2) and seven (2).
- Winners have carried between 8-12 and 9-6.
- Winners have been rated between 92 and 100.
- Winners have been priced between 7/2 and 20/1 with seven returned between 7/2 and 11/1.
- Four favourites, including three of the last four, have been successful.
- Winners have been drawn between 2 and 17 with nine between 2 and 13.
- Five winners have been placed on their previous start with two successful.
- Five winners had won a race during the current season.
- Nine winners had won a race with a field size of at least 13.
- Two winners ran in the Stewards' Cup; one finished fourth, one was unplaced.
- David O'Meara (three) and Richard Fahey (two) have trained four of the last five winners.
