Free racing tips: Betting advice from leading tipster Rory Delargy

Recommended bets, Friday November 20

1pt win Out On The Tear in 2.50 Chepstow at 7/1 - minimum 5/1

1pt win Count Meribel in 2.05 Ascot at 6/1 - minimum 9/2

2pts e.w. Silver Nickel in 3.45 Ascot at 9/1 (1/5 1,2,3) - minimum 1pt e.w. at 11/2

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Silver can take gold - 3.45 Ascot

Top-weight Enqarde has his first start for Dr Newland after being purchased for £45,000 after achieving just the one win in France, but we’ve seen The Good Doctor© (tick that off on your bingo card) win with plenty of these imports in the past, he has a knack of improving them and finding the right races. For all this is an Ascot handicap, it isn’t the most competitive race ever, and the only question we have with Enqarde is whether 3m will prove to be his trip, as he did the vast majority of his racing in France over shorter.

Stamina will not be a worry with Silver Nickel though, who looks to be crying out for a test of stamina, and that was confirmed visually when he stayed on into fourth on his handicap bow over 2m3f here last time; he was readily outpaced when the tempo lifted there, but was picking up we under a hand ride in the straight, and would have been bang there given another furlong or so . His dam was best at 3m, and is a half-sister to Summer National third Valley Ride, who won four times over 3m and further, while his second dam is a half-sister to Gold Cup winner Jodami.

Silver Nickel is handicapped on the form he’s shown over an inadequate 2m, showed he could improve over further last time, and is likely to relish the stiffest test he’s faced to date.

Tearin' it up - 2.50 Chepstow

Enzo D’Airy was a ready winner at Stratford on good to soft 12 days ago, but enough of Venetia’s win after a break only to disappoint when quickly turned out (often at cramped odds, too) to make him worth taking on. The going stick reading at Chepstow for the hurdles track reads 3.3 as I type this, so as well as the usual headgear abbreviations - b for blinkers, e for eyeshields, keep an eye out for s (snorkel) and f (flippers) on the racecard today.

Yes, it’ll be very testing at Chepstow and not many will truly relish such conditions. Smiths Cross is seemingly out of sorts, but can’t have it deep enough, and might just bounce back with headgear tried. Knight Destroyer won on heavy at Taunton in January, but Taunton heavy isn’t anywhere near as deep as Chepstow heavy, and he wasn’t as good at Hexham more recently, and the only other one with winning form in the mud is Out On The Tear, whose form reads well on the whole, and who would be the pick on balance at the prices.

He was a winner over hurdles at Uttoxeter in heavy last December, and those who handle the mud there will cope with anything. This will be his chase debut, which obviously means he needs to put in a clear round, but he’s got scope and there are plenty of jumps winners on the dam’s side of the family, the dam herself being a half-sister to a Kerry National winner.

Meribel best fresh – 2:05 Ascot

Count Meribel chased home no less a rival than Lostintranslation on last year’s return, and he had won first time up as a novice hurdler and a novice chaser in previous seasons, so it’s clear he goes best fresh, and he was also a winner over hurdles here as a novice. He ran well in the BetVictor Gold Cup a year ago, and had excuses after losing a shoe on New Year’s Day at Cheltenham. He ought to be more prominent in the betting based on the balance of his form over fences, and with first time often the best time to catch him, he rates a bet in this handicap, where he could easily get the run of things with limited pressure on him should he press on as he tends to do.

Stable switcher to note - 2.40 Ascot

Buzz is the rightful favourite for this after his third to Sceau Royal and Ballyandy in the Welsh Champion Hurdle, and he has always promised to win a big pot since his days on the Flat with Hughie Morrison. He ought to win this, but has been priced accordingly.

One of the more interesting ones that take him on tomorrow is San Seb, who hasn’t been seen for a couple of years now, and one can only assume there’s been some setbacks, but he has his first start for Fergal O’Brien after leaving Stuart Edmunds and one piece of his form in particular makes him look potentially well treated here. That’s his win at Fakenham where, despite going off a 20-1 chance, was just about the pick of the paddock and he put Song For Someone in their places with a ready win. That form looked okay at the time, but has ended up working out really well over time.

He’s conservatively priced having moved stables, and that makes sense given Fergal O’Brien’s record with others’ rejects, but he doesn’t fit that bill given we would rate Stuart Edmunds as an under-appreciated handler, and the fact his old rating included an element of weight-for-age means he needs to improve to take advantage of his old mark. That means not piling into him at single figures, but there are definite positive with him, and he might be worth a small interest if allowed to drift. Either way, he’s one to note for the future.

Posted at 1800 GMT on 19/11/20

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