Free racing tips: Betting advice from leading tipster David Massey

Recommended bets, Friday October 16

1pt win Hepijeu in 3.40 Fakenham at 16/1 (Minimum 8/1)

1pt e.w. Red Derek in 3.48 Haydock at 16/1 (Minimum 9/1)

1pt e.w. My Painter in 5.05 Redcar at 40/1 (Minimum 16/1) - NON-RUNNER

*Declared a non-runner early Friday morning

For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record

Hepijeu’s Happy Home - 3.40 Fakenham

The Download the Attheraces App Handicap Chase is a competitive event without doubt, but one where the chance of Hepijeu, back at a “home” fixture, shouldn't be overlooked.

Stuart Edmunds’ evergreen chaser has an excellent record at the tricky Norfolk venue, with form figures of 2112, and for all that he often tries extreme distances, if you concentrate on his efforts in Class 3 chases from 2m6f-3m it reads 31123. For much of the past twelve months he’s run respectably from marks that have simply been too high for him, but he was second in this to Touch Kick last year from 9lb higher and given Touch Kick went on to run well from higher marks later in the season, that form looks solid.

He warmed up for this (as he did last year) with a run in a Sedgefield handicap hurdle, and the change of headgear from cheekpieces to blinkers ought not be a negative. Take him to bounce back at a track he clearly enjoys.

Go Derek! Red Derek - 3.48 Haydock

It’s March since Lisa Williamson had a winner but to Red Derek’s credit, he’s run well throughout the season despite that, and his recent efforts are very hard to knock. Second here over 14f to Billy No Mates in September (soft ground), he then ran at least as well, if not a bit better, when third to a higher rated pair in a Pontefract maiden (winner of that, Opera Gift, won very easily off 76 at Yarmouth on his next start) and then showed he stays 2m when fourth to Trumpet Man at Nottingham.

He’d hold a chance of reversing that form simply on the revised weights today, but on watching the Nottingham race back it’s clear he wasn’t ridden to best advantage. Keen early, he was allowed to go to the front a long way out, and Jimmy Quinn’s body language suggested he expected those early efforts to tell. Rather than drop away, however, he kept on again when passed, and would have been third with a bit more enterprise. Now he knows that the horse stays well and will keep responding, I’d hope that Quinn would be a bit more proactive here.

The handicapper has revisited that previous Pontefract form and deemed it worthy of another couple of pounds on his back, but the return to soft ground is very much in his favour. Given his consistency, an each-way bet looks the way to play.

Don’t Gloss Over Painter’s Chance: My Painter - 5.05 Redcar

An amateur jockey’s handicap finishes off the Redcar card and there looks to be a bet in the shape of bottom weight My Painter, who holds a better chance than his huge odds of 40/1 might suggest.

He’s had five starts for William Bethell this season, that after coming back from a three year absence, and it is no surprise that he needed the first couple of them to blow away a few of the cobwebs, but since then he’s run well twice - firstly at Southwell over hurdles when second to the improved Jamacho, and then when beaten under a length over 10f on soft ground at Ripon, form that is working out okay, with the fourth and sixth placed on their next starts and the seventh a winner at Wolverhampton.

A poor run at Newcastle on the all-weather is easily enough written off given his dreadful record on artificial surfaces - in eight AW starts he’s yet to finish closer than ninth. The booking of Pat Millman looks significant, given Pat’s good record in these races, and you can expect to see him front rank from the word go.

With a few firms likely to offer the extra place on this 15-runner handicap, and plenty in the contest you struggle to make much of a case for in the conditions, he looks an attractive each-way bet (Betfair Sportsbook and Paddy Power are both four places and 40/1).

Keep an eye out for... The Garrison 3.23 Uttoxeter

A quick mention for The Garrison, who we were quite keen on at Stratford before they had to abandon their recent meeting due to the river bursting its banks the night before.

Ironically, The Garrison would have loved that to have gone ahead, as deep ground really seems to suit him, but conditions at Uttoxeter won’t be as testing and more pertinently, whereas the Stratford contest was very winnable, this one looks a hot little race, with easy last time out winners Breffniboy and Radjash lining up against each other. Throw in the fact Johnny Farrelly not only has the likely favourite but bottom weight How’s The Cricket, ridden by Brian Hughes, and this starts to look a race to avoid for betting purposes.

We’ll keep an eye on The Garrison with the future in mind, bearing in mind defeat could see him dropped enough to qualify for a 0-100 handicap somewhere, and that’s a level he’s sure to be competitive in.

Posted 1745 BST on 15/10/20

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