Nic Doggett provides an overview of the key things to note on Friday.
Doddie to go the Distance
It feels like a long time since Big Buck’s made the Coral Long Distance Hurdle (3.00) his own, though with his four victories coming at odds of 2/5, 2/7, 1/8 and 1/12, it’s a better contest these days for its lack of a superstar like the Paul Nicholls-trained great.
Ahoy Senor apart, Timeform weight-adjusted-ratings have just 7 lb between the other six runners in this year’s above-average-looking renewal, topped narrowly by Impose Toi who appeared suited by the emphasis on speed (and possibly the lack of cheekpieces) when carrying a big weight to victory in an Aintree handicap earlier this month.
It’s no surprise that Strong Leader has the Timeform ‘Horses For Courses’ flag, with all of his seven wins – including his three and a half length win in last year’s renewal - coming on left-handed tracks, the majority of which have come on mainly flat courses like this one. He sports cheekpieces after a recommendation from his jockey Sean Bowen, but there is a case to make that the horse’s best performances have come after an absence.
Strong Leader renews rivalries with Take No Chances and Doddiethregreat who were a neck and a length and a half, respectively, behind him at Wetherby at the start of the month, while the one-time King George VI Chase winner Hewick is back over hurdles here but has become more enigmatic than his trainer.
Perhaps the best value lies with Doddiethegreat who made a couple of jumping errors at Wetherby on his first start outside of handicap company but should have realised that day that he is not out of his place in a staying division that remains unextraordinary. Given he is named after Doddie Weir who died almost exactly three years ago, it would certainly be a poignant success.
Heltenham primed for big effort?
When examining the two-and-a-half-mile handicap chase at 2.25, I was surprised to discover that winners of the race have tended to fall off a cliff after their success. Indeed, no winner since 2020 victor Clondaw Castle has since added to their tally; between them, Fanion d’Estruval, Paint The Dream, Kandoo Kid and Le Patron have gone winless in 19 starts.
Some of those winners were having their first start of the season, some their second or third, but none were as match-fit as this year’s Timeform selection Heltenham who is having his fourth start of the campaign, albeit his first since a wind op.
Heltenham looked rusty when well beaten in the race last year but has no excuses on that front this time around and he is back to the same mark as when winning over C&D back in March 2024, and just 2 lb higher than when running away with a Perth handicap last April.
Like the aforementioned Strong Leader, Heltenham – who is top on Timeform weight-adjusted-ratings - has the ‘Horses For Courses’ flag, while his trainer Dan Skelton has the ‘Hot Trainer’ flag as he bids for yet another ITV winner. His eight-year-old ticks plenty of boxes.
Go North Series to the fore
The Go North Series aims to help shine a light on racing in northern England and Scotland with Musselburgh, Kelso and Carlisle at the forefront of a series that names each of its nine finals after famous northern-trained racehorses.
Timeform’s highest-rated hurdler Night Nurse, One Man and Sea Pigeon all get a namecheck in their respective qualifiers at Musselburgh on Friday, though it should be noted that horses only need to have run in one qualifier (as long as they have started in three or more jump races in the North in the current season) to be eligible for the final.
The speed-favouring nature of Musselburgh may prove the ideal venue for Arctic Voyage in the opening Watch On Racing TV Juvenile Maiden Hurdle (Go North Night Nurse Series Qualifier) at 12.05, as the useful sprinter on the Flat was only collared late on when wandering under pressure at Sedgefield on his hurdling bow last month.
But, with question marks over the favourite, it’s worth highlighting the progression of dual-purpose trainer Adam Nicol.
Based in Seahouses on the Northumberland coast, Nicol is best known for stable star Wise Eagle (who has been helping school the youngsters recently) but he also has a promising bunch of juvenile hurdlers led by Wensleydale winner Minella Study.
Listed contests may not be on the agenda for Keyboard, who makes his hurdling bow on Friday, but he has a similar profile to Minella Study having had one promising run on the Flat since joining from Jim Bolger in Ireland.
Nicol has the ‘Hot Trainer’ flag at present and is already ahead of schedule this season in terms of winners, his 14% strike-rate returning five winners already, just three off last season’s total.
Don’t be surprised if Keyboard improves that further.
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