French racing tips: Preview and best bets for Arc Trials Day at Longchamp

Qatar Arc Trials day takes place today, a week earlier than normal, and that tweak has seemingly been well received looking at the runners that have been declared. The day also features a representative Prix du Moulin over 1600m on ground that I don’t anticipate being any softer than good.

The race to be ‘best European miler’ in 2025 is almost as confused as the contest to define the best sprinter. Lead Artist won the Lockinge, Docklands won the Queen Anne with Lead Artist back in seventh, Cinderella’s Dream won the Falmouth, Qirat won the Sussex Stakes with Docklands back in fifth, Fallen Angel (who’d been sixth in the Lockinge) won the Prix Rothschild and Diego Velazquez who’d finished last in the Queen Anne won the Jacques le Marios where Docklands was fourth.

Of course, one of the three-years-olds might yet claim that title with the most obvious one being Field Of Gold but he’s not been seen since finishing lame in the Sussex and we’ve seen before that a big late-season performance can alter perceptions greatly. If there is one horse for whom the Prix du Moulin offers the opportunity to assert himself at the top of this year’s rankings then it is surely Rosallion who won at Group 1 level at two (in the Jean-Luc Lagardere here) and twice at three (Irish 2000, St James Palace Stakes) but has met defeat so far this season in the Lockinge (reappearance run, third), Queen Anne (second), Sussex (second) and City of York (third).

The drop back to seven furlongs last time out looked to me something of a desperate move to try and secure a Group 1, albeit not helped by a wide draw, but he’s back at his ideal trip now, has the beating of pretty much everything in the field on form if he runs to his best and there’s little doubt that he would have won the Sussex Stakes comfortably had he been ridden much closer to the pace, form which suggests he’s as probably as good as he was last year.

That said, he looks vulnerable again to me, not least as he’s drawn stall eleven of 12, and given he’s never been ridden any closer to the pace than mid division could well find himself too far back again on what is essentially a partly downhill and sharply turning fast 1600m ending with a short straight. Lead Artist has been hot and cold this year, a willing winner of the Lockinge on the back of last place in the bet365Mile but well down the field a month later in the Queen Anne. Splitting him and Rosallion in the Lockinge was Dancing Gemini, who came into the race on the back of wins in the Doncaster Mile and bet365Mile but was another to flop in the Queen Anne and once again looked a slightly substandard Group 1 performer when third in an ordinary running of the Marois last time.

Three-year-olds have a fair record in this race and best of them this year looks to be Henri Matisse who came from a long way back when winning the French 2000 and then finished three and a half lengths behind Field Of Gold in the St James’s Palace but looked clear second best behind Rosallion in the Sussex after allowing for sectional upgrades.

His stablemate The Lion In Winter ran well in the Prix Jean Prat but that was a second-rate three-year-old only Group 1 and he ran a shocker in the Marois last time when eased right off after carrying his head very awkwardly. Home-trained Sahlan has a good turn of foot and was just over four and a half lengths behind Henri Matisse from a poor draw in the Poulains but he’s another held up and if this turns tactical, as I think it might, the one who might end up being best placed to cause a minor upset is the Crisford’s Quddwah.

He was last of ten in the Queen Anne on rattling fast ground when sent off a 16/1 shot but he has won his other races this year, both in France too, a listed contest here back in May and the Group 3 Prix Messidor at Chantilly in July which he won going away by two and a half lengths with a couple that reoppose him today, Marhaba Ya Sanafi and Alcantor, behind.

He's a better horse now than when fourth behind Charyn in the Jacques le Marois last year and has the right profile for the race being a regular front runner who has bagged the inside stall and for whom the ground ought not to inconvenience. Last year’s Moulin was won from the front by Tribalist and the previous year’s edition was dominated by two horses who raced first and second throughout, but the early prices have gone and the general 7/1 is no more than fair.

Almaqam could be horse to beat in Foy

The first of the three Arc trials is the Prix Foy and a good race it is too. In days gone by this preview would begin with Iresine who is a standing dish in this particular contest having won it in 2022 and 2024 besides finishing third in 2021 and second in 2023. The evergreen eight-year-old is back for another crack but events this year suggest that age has caught up with him, running to a level around 8lb lower than in 2024, and he looks to have lost that turn of foot which made him such a dangerous opponent in his younger days.

On form, the one who holds the best claims is Almaqam, and by 3lb too on weight-adjusted Timeform ratings. He ran at the Arc meeting last year in the Prix Dollar, finishing second to Jayarebe but he’s taken his form to a new level this year and beat Ombudsman in the Brigadier Gerard Stakes at Sandown before finding an extended mile and a quarter on good to firm ground far too sharp a test in the Sky Bet Stakes at York. This is his first run at 2400m, or just shy of a mile and a half, and given he shapes as though he should stay it (indeed, his dam won over the trip) and goes very well on right-handed tracks then he should be very tough to beat with the ground more in his favour than it was at York.

That said, this is no penalty kick, with Los Angeles, Sosie and Japanese raider Byzantine Dream among the opposition. Los Angeles isn’t he consistent model he was last season despite two wins to his name, though he went off too hard in the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes won by Ombudsman and might then have needed the run when fourth in the Royal Whip at the Curragh last time.

Strangely, he’s had only four runs at this trip – third in the Derby and Arc and successful in the Irish Derby and Great Voltigeur – so is an interesting runner back at it for the first time this season. Another horse tacking the trip for the first time this season and likely to be better for it too is Sosie who started favourite for the Arc last year after winning the Grand Prix de Paris and ran well to be fourth.

He ran poorly in the Eclipse last time but had previously won the Prix Ganay and Prix d’Ispahan despite the trips and is clearly at least as good as he was last year. Map Of Stars, who finished fourth in the Price Of Wales’s on unsuitable ground, was second in the Ganay but comes here on the back of a disappointing effort in Germany.

Byzantime Dream, a handicap winner in Saudi, looks to have a bit to find but it wouldn’t be a surprise if Arrow Eagle went well. He’s won his last three races, stays well and can sprint too, and has beaten Sibayan (an impressive winner of the Grand Prix de Deauville and now rated 120p by Timeform) in the last two of them. He’s another whose price has contracted drastically in the last 24 hours, however.

Aventure to go one better

Just six runners go to post for the Prix Vermeille which was won last year by subsequent Arc winner Bluestocking but they include the horse who is now second favourite for this year’s renewal, Whirl, after Kalpana’s tame effort in the September Stakes. She’s won three of her last four races, suffering her only defeat to the now Arc favourite Minnie Hauk in the Oaks, and was impressive on the face of it in the Nassau at Goodwood last time where she had her re-opposing stablemate Bedtime Story over eight lengths back in fourth.

For all that was a muddling affair started by flag in which Whirl stole several lengths at the start and Bedtime Story got left, she still looks the one to beat on her earlier form. Bedtime Story has for a long time shaped as if she is worth a try at this trip, being a close relative of the Yorkshire Oaks winner Content, but the form of her second place to the re-opposing Gezora (who hasn’t been seen since) in the Prix de Daine back in June doesn’t look quite so good as it did at the time, at least amongst those who finished in the first six places.

On top of that, Bedtime Story finished behind Survie last time in the Prix Jean Romanet at Deauville and that despite Survie being set a good deal to do as she usually is. Survie had this season previously finished behind both AVENTURE in the Prix Corrida and Whirl in the Pretty Polly and the step back up to 2400m for the first time since last year’s Arc (when she was seventh, around seven lengths behind second-placed Aventure) ought to see her in better light.

Aventure has already had a go at the trip this year, suffering her only defeat in 2025, but that was at the hands of Europe’s top 2400m performer Calandagan. Aventure was second in this race last year (Survie was seventh) when letting Bluestocking get first run and this renewal looks collectively weaker, so has to go close and 100-30 is arguably too big.

Home hope too big at 16s

The final Arc trial, the Prix Niel, has attracted eight runners among whom the shortest in the Arc betting is the Grand Prix de Paris winner Leffard. His win in that race came as a bit of a surprise given he was the joint biggest-priced of the six runners but there was little fluke about it as he ran down Trinity College after not being able to do himself justice in the French Derby before that when drawn towards the outside.

That said, the form of the Grand Prix doesn’t look as strong as it has done in recent seasons (Sosie, Feed The Flame, Onesto and Hurricane Lane had been its previous four winners) and plenty of ]his opposition have shown form nearly as good with the prospect of more improvement to come.

French Derby second Cualificar takes Leffard on again, and will almost certainly appreciate a step up to 2400m after getting done for speed down in trip at Deauville last month, as does NITOI who had an even wider draw and passage than Leffard in the Derby and was another who wasn’t best served by a drop in trip at Deauville last time in a sprint finish behind the Dante runner-up Damysus.

Bay City Roller looks a dubious stayer and Parachutiste seemingly isn’t good enough but the remaining three entries, all from Ireland, can’t be discounted. Swagman, the mount of new Ballydoyle first choice Christophe Soumillon, hasn’t run since winning the Classic Trial at Sandown in April, where he had Damysus back in third, while Aftermath hasn’t run since 2024 when he finished second to Bay City Roller in the Champagne on just his second start and hasn’t run beyond seven furlongs yet either.

Tennessee Stud came from a long way back to finish third in the Derby before running flat in the Irish Derby and given the way he moves might want more rain.

This looks more open than the betting suggests and the 16/1 on offer about Nitoi looks too big.

Selections

1pt win Aventure in 15.25 Longchamp at 100/30 (General)

1pt win Nitoi in 16.00 Longchamp at 16/1 (Ladbrokes, BetVictor, BoyleSports)

Published at 0915 BST on 07/09/25

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