Free racing tips: Value Bet preview and recommended bets for Chepstow and Kempton
Our man is back covering for Matt Brocklebank on Wednesday and has two recommended bets, including one in the Welsh National.
Value Bet Tips: Wednesday 27 December
1pt win Iron Bridge in the 2.50 Chepstow at 10/1 (BetVictor, Betfred, Coral, Ladbrokes)
1pt win Tweed Skirt in the 3.09 Kempton at 11/2 (William Hill)
There is some inclement weather around the Chepstow area this evening with up to 25mm of rain forecast to fall and gusts of up to 50mph. There will obviously be a change in the ground if all that rain does arrive, meaning that stamina will be at a premium in the Welsh Grand National.
Nassalam has been well fancied for the race ever since winning the trial over three miles at this course earlier in the month and arguably looks the pick of the weights under a 4 lb penalty, but he doesn’t strike me as a horse who is crying out for this marathon trip, so I am happy to oppose him.
Autonomous Cloud and Super Survivor are unexposed chasers who command respect, but the horse I like most is the Jonjo O’Neill-trained IRON BRIDGE. He progressed well over fences last season, making a winning start in this sphere in a two and a half mile handicap at Carlisle, completing a simple task over at Haydock, and going on to finish runner-up in a couple of competitive handicaps.
He was beaten a head by Autonomous Cloud over three miles at Uttoxeter on his final start last season, but he was arguably unlucky not to prevail that day under an over-confident ride, likely to have come out on top if his rider had engaged top gear sooner.
Iron Bridge wasn’t at his best on his return to action over two and a half miles at Newbury at the beginning of this month, but that came over a trip short of his optimum, while he also left the strong impression he was in much need of the run. I’m prepared to put a line through that effort, and to me he remains a chaser to be positive about, particularly now tackling a marathon trip.
The forecast rain will also be in his favour and he is better off at the weights with Autonomous Cloud, so I’m confident he can turn the tables with that rival, while he also remains with handicapping scope from a mark of 142. At odds of 10/1 I think he is a fair bet in a race which should bring out the best in him.
Over at Kempton there is an interesting handicap chase over three miles and it is TWEED SKIRT who makes appeal. She was a fair hurdler but she has developed into a much better chaser, bolting up on her debut in this sphere from a mark of 118 over two and a half miles at this course in November last year, and she confirmed that impression when following up from a 10 lb higher mark at Wincanton on her next start.
She wasn’t disgraced in listed and graded company on her next two starts and she rallied well back in a handicap at Cheltenham on her final start last season. That was a rather indifferent run by Tweed Skirt, though, losing her position at the top of the hill and looking well beaten, but she stuck to her task when and was only beaten around four lengths at the line.
That performance suggested she is well worth a try at three miles, though she didn’t get the chance to show what she can do over this trip on her return at Market Rasen last month. She was still waited with and going nicely when unseating her rider at the twelfth fence, and she strikes as the type who can show improved form at around this trip.
There is also rain forecast at Kempton this evening, but even if they do get it the ground will probably only turn to good to soft, soft in places and that will be perfect for Tweed Skirt. She also likes it round here and, provided she gets round unscathed this time, she must have a very strong chance from her current mark of 133, while the Nicky Henderson yard continue in top form.
Preview posted at 1550 GMT on 26/12/2023
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