Andrew Asquith steps in for Matt Brocklebank in this week's Value Bet column and has three recommended bets.
Value Bet Tips: Saturday 12 August
1pt win Bodorgan in the 2.25 Haydock at 10/1 (General)
1pt win Positive Impact in the 3.20 Ascot at 15/2 (Sky Bet)
1pt win French Invasion in the 3.55 Ascot at 16/1 (General, 20/1 bet365)
There is Group 1 action over at the Curragh on Saturday where Bucanero Fuerte and Unquestionable are set to go head-to-head again in the Phoenix Stakes. The former narrowly came out on top in the Railway Stakes over the same course and distance at the beginning of last month, displaying a tremendous attitude to regain the lead close home after Unquestionable moved into the race like the likeliest winner – he traded 1.04 in-running on Betfair.
I can see a similar scenario panning out as Launch is more than likely in there to ensure a good pace for Bucanero Fuerte and he sat closest to his pacemaker in the Railway. He was still the last one to come off the bridle, too, and on likely softer ground his chance also has to increase. I would have him outright favourite for the Phoenix, but it isn’t a race I’ll be getting involved in, and I’m more than happy to sit back and enjoy.
The Shergar Cup takes centre stage in Britain and, while it may split opinion among racing fans, you can’t deny that there are some interesting handicaps to get stuck into. As you read on, you will realise a theme of this column is second chances – or in some cases third – and you will soon reach the conclusion that I am quite a forgiving person when it comes to horses.
The three-year-old handicap over a mile and a half at Ascot (15:55) is a race that interests me and I’m sure that the outsider of the field, FRENCH INVASION, is better than he has been able to show in handicaps so far.
He created a very good impression when making a winning debut at Kempton in January, showing signs of greenness down the back straight and on the home turn, but he put the race to bed in a matter of strides in the straight, powering away from his rivals.
French Invasion scrambled home under a penalty at Lingfield the following month, but that was a three-runner race which wasn’t run at a solid tempo, and the tight turns and undulations of Lingfield wouldn’t have been ideal for a big, powerful horse like him, either. Admittedly, he was underwhelming on handicap debut at Southwell next time, failing to settle and not looking the most tractable, though the manner in which he hung badly to his left around two furlongs out suggests something may have been ailing him.
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He was given a break afterwards and, though he finished tailed off on his return and turf debut at Glorious Goodwood last week, conditions that day were dreadful and it isn’t a race he should be judged on too harshly.
Frankie Dettori was keen to get into a prominent position, but as the race panned out, those forcing the pace were probably going a couple of strides quicker than necessary. French Invasion quickly fell through the field and was allowed to come home in his own time. That run should have done him the world of good, though, and he is bred to handle some cut in the ground, so conditions at Ascot shouldn’t be a problem.
A mark of 82 should be well within reach and I am prepared to give him another chance at around 16/1, while Tom Marquand in the saddle is no negative, especially at this meeting.
Staying at Ascot, another horse who I feel is potentially well handicapped is the Simon & Ed Crisford-trained POSITIVE IMPACT. He had already shown ability before completing a very simple task in a match at Brighton in June last year, and he was only beaten a short-head by this year’s Royal Hunt Cup winner Jimi Hendrix on handicap debut at Newmarket next time.
That was a solid run and he ran respectably in some useful handicaps afterwards, finding only one rival too good at Chester and Thirsk before resuming winning ways in emphatic fashion on all-weather debut at Kempton in September.
Positive Impact was well positioned as the race went, but he thumped the well-handicapped runner-up – who won on his next start – in the style of a horse some way ahead of his mark. Things didn’t go to plan for Positive Impact at Meydan earlier this year, finishing down the field in a couple of handicaps on both turf and dirt, but some horses just don’t thrive out there and he has been freshened up since.
Furthermore, Simon & Ed Crisford have a good record with horses returning from 180 days or more off the track, operating at a 18.8% strike rate, with the percentage of rivals beaten over 60%. Positive Impact tends to either make the running or race prominently, so his draw is stall 1 should work in his favour, and this big, strong gelding is a horse I’m keen to keep on side.
Moving on to Haydock and BODORGAN is a horse who is getting one last chance. He didn’t show much on his debut last year but he took a marked step forward to finish a close third in a race which has worked out well – subsequent Lingfield Derby Trial winner Military Order finished fourth – at Newmarket on his next start and he didn’t need to improve to open his account next time.
Bodorgan shaped much better than the bare result on his return and handicap debut over this course and distance in May, drawn on the outside and having to take a trip round the houses on the turn. He moved into the race nicely in the straight but wasn’t helped by being isolated towards the middle of the track while the action was unfolding on the far rail, mounting a challenge but his effort petering out as his earlier exertions and perhaps lack of a recent run told.
It was no surprise to see him well backed on his next start at Sandown, but he was unable to build on his reappearance taking on his elders for the first time, again drawn wide and being shuffled back in the pack as his rider tried to slot in. However, he was pushed along from some way out on that occasion, his rider never seeming happy with how he was travelling and he didn’t offer much in the closing stages.
Bodorgan went with much more verve at Newmarket last time, ridden prominently and getting racing from some way out, briefly falling away before starting to stay on again in the closing stages. There was no obvious excuse on that occasion, but he moves into a bigger field now in a race which should be strongly run and, hopefully, he will be able to slot in nicely from a good draw in stall 5 and get a good tow into the race. Based on his juvenile form, Bodorgan is almost certainly well handicapped from a mark of 82 and I’m happy to take double-figure prices about him.
Preview posted at 1540 BST on 11/08/2023
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