"If he's fit and on song, he'll beat these" | Best bets for Goodwood and Newmarket
John & Thady Gosden are in a fine vein of form at present and their two-year-olds are coming good. Reach For The Moon could be the next big thing for The Queen and he is one of five winning juveniles for Team Gosden since August 11, a productive period that took their annual tally to 11.
Another of the quintet was TINDERBOX who won her novice comfortably at Kempton on that August 11 date and she’s fancied to take the step up in class in her stride in the Group 3 Prestige Stakes over seven furlongs at Goodwood on Saturday.
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That Kempton form received a boost on Friday afternoon when the runner-up, Silk Romance, won impressively at Newmarket, and Tinderbox saw off her challenge at Kempton emphatically, under what wasn’t much more than hands and heels riding from James Doyle.
She did everything very professionally at Kempton, clearly coming on from her debut where she showed up a good second to subsequent Sweet Solera Stakes third Value Theory, who reopposes this weekend.
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Tinderbox can reverse that form now she has a win under her belt and Gosden has a good record with this type of horse at Goodwood, as a record of five wins from 16 runners at a strike-rate of 31.25% with his juveniles in group races at the Sussex track suggests.
With his two-year-olds in good form and with progeny of Farrh having a more than respectable record of four wins from 15 (26.67%) on the Downs thanks to wins from Dee Ex Bee, Move Swiftly, Native Tribe and Makawee, Tinderbox is taken to light up the ITV opener.
Hello You is the form pick, but she’s becoming frustrating with the application of a hood failing to help her settle at York, so she’s worth taking on, while Simon & Ed Crisford’s Deauville third Daneh could be on the back foot early if she dwells at the start like she did in France.
The feature race at Goodwood is the Tote Celebration Mile and this contest looks ripe for a bet as I want to take on the market leaders.
Benbatl has a good record fresh but he has a patchy record in the UK while a heavy dollop of reputation is factored into Mutasaabeq’s odds. Chindit drops in class but his running style concerns me at a track where he’s likely to be a hostage to fortune and Perotto looks nothing more than a good handicapper.
With all that in mind I’m convinced there’s a bet to be had at a price and the one I like is Amanda Perrett’s LAVENDER’S BLUE at 20s, which looks a good bit of business getting the four places (Sky Bet and Hills).
The Sea The Stars mare ran a super race in a six-and-a-half length eighth last time out in the hottest Falmouth Stakes I can remember and on her best form, which includes Group 3 success over a mile, she’s entitled to go close in this.
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I like that she has been freshened up since the Falmouth with a 50-day break as she has won after a three-month absence before - as well as first-time up twice - and I also like that the cheekpieces are missing, as the last time she went without headgear she ran Lady Bowthorpe to half a length at Newmarket.
A strong traveller who races fairly prominently, she could well be best positioned to pounce on Benbatl if he’s showing any signs of weakness following a long break and on her best form she’s entitled to be considered best of the rest, especially on ideal Good to Firm ground.
Combined with those doubts surrounding the market leaders, the 20/1 available getting extra places looks superb value.
Finally, CLARENDON CROSS can improve for the step up in trip in the Close Brothers Property Finance Handicap over 10 furlongs on Newmarket’s July Course.
Richard Hannon’s son of New Approach started the season off a 10lb higher mark and he ran well off that perch of 82 when a good sixth in a competitive seven-furlong handicap at Newbury on April 16.
Slowly away that day, he was a real eyecatcher but has been disappointing subsequently, hence the gelding operation in mid-season and the relief from the handicapper.
He looks to have been outpaced over a mile on his last two starts, however, and given a hefty drop of 4lb for what wasn’t such a bad run last time might have been a bit drastic with the new trip in mind.
He’s related to stayers, including Champion Hurdle winner Sublimity, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him leave his previous form behind now he tackles another two furlongs off a lowly rating.
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