Free horse racing tips: Weekend best bets for Cheltenham and Doncaster
Racing betting tips: Saturday January 29
2pts win Aye Right in 2.30 Cheltenham at 7/2 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
1pt win Nuts Well in 3.20 Doncaster at 25/1 (General)
1pt win Canelo in 3.20 Doncaster at 20/1 (General)
The last Saturday in January sees Cheltenham stage Trials Day but the best betting race is at Doncaster where there’s a competitive field entered for the Sky Bet Chase.
With the stable going great guns it’s no surprise to see Commodore at the head of the betting for Venetia Williams but he did get a very easy lead at Cheltenham’s December meeting and I think that’s an unlikely scenario here, while winning back-to-back major handicaps is notoriously tough.
Paul Nicholls has done well in the biggest chase staged at the South Yorkshire track and in Kapcorse, who won the Sir Peter O’Sullevan Memorial Chase on his seasonal debut in November, he has a major chance.
The form looks strong enough with Killer Clown in behind and the way he sauntered up the long straight in Berkshire looked like he’d find the similar configuration here no problem at all.
Connections have been extremely patient with him and no doubt his owner will think he’s done his job in winning that race twice, but you have to think there’s more to come and he’ll be hard to beat if in the same form. Having said that, I can’t see him being much shorter in the betting on Saturday morning.
Fusil Raffles comes from a stable now in peak form and, as this season’s Charlie Hall winner, has to be respected here although he’s since shown his mark to be near the limits of his ability and I’d be surprised to see him not bump into something a little better treated.
Christian Williams almost won Lingfield’s Surrey National with Defuture Is Bright on Sunday and his Cap Du Nord, third here last year off a 10lb higher mark, is another the layers have chalked up defensively but I just don’t think he’s in the same form this time around and would need far bigger prices to tempt me in.
The trainer also has Five Star Getaway and his Kempton win was franked when the runner up, Fortescue, ran a blinder in third behind Royale Pagaille off a 6lb higher mark on Saturday. That was the eight-year-old's first victory over three miles and he could obviously improve again from just a 4lb lower mark.
Midnight Shadow represents some of the very best handicap form of the season having won Cheltenham’s Paddy Power Gold Cup in November, which followed an excellent third in the Old Roan at Aintree three weeks before.
On his last run he was a game third to Coole Cody in the Grade Three at Cheltenham in December but I just don’t see stamina as his strong point, and reckon he’ll be a more attractive each-way proposition in March in the Ryanair for which he’s currently a massive price.
If it's Saturday Dan Skelton will be well represented and in Debece he has a horse who has been pulled out of a couple of races he’s been backed to win this season, and couldn’t be recommended in advance although I’m pretty sure he’s ahead of his mark when we do see him again. This is a very tough race to go to first time out.
It may well be that last year’s edition of this race is the key to Saturday’s race and, if so, Aye Right, whose rider lost his whip in a driving finish, will bid to follow up his Rehearsal Chase win off an 8lb higher mark, and he’d surely be better off running unpenalised in Cheltenham’s Cotswold Chase over a course where he ran so well in the Ultima behind Vintage Clouds.
Cap Du Nord, as we’ve already discussed, was third here in 2021 and in fourth was CANELO, running off a 10lb lower mark after a string of below-par efforts this season although I believe there are mitigating circumstances.
His Bangor seasonal return under a big weight was only ever likely to be a pipe opener and he never threatened in the Ladbrokes Trophy at Newbury, then ran behind Five Star Getaway at Kempton over Christmas when beaten 40 lengths.
Interestingly, the previous time he’d run there he was beaten 73 lengths before winning three weeks later, improving 65lb on RPRs in the process and 137 is just too good a mark to ignore when you consider he was 5lb higher when beating Snow Leopardess at Wetherby just over a year ago.
He’s certainly very well treated on that form and over-priced to my eyes at a general 20/1.
The other horse I like at a big price is Ann Hamilton’s eleven-year-old, NUTS WELL, who tries three miles here for the first time in a race where older horses have a very good record.
He’s been a brilliant horse for connections with an Old Roan Chase win off this mark and a second in the Melling Chase to Fakir D'Oudaries on his CV, and should be well within himself for the majority of this race.
He won first time out at Kelso, ran like he needed a step up in trip when fifth in a very good Old Roan in October and his third to Eclair D’Ainay in the Castleford Chase over the minimum trip was boosted when that horse was just touched off in a tight finish at Lingfield on Friday, so I think odds of 25/1 are insulting to a horse of his ability.
There's not much priced up at Cheltenham but, as previously mentioned, I do like the chance of that tremendous northern stayer, AYE RIGHT, in the Paddy Power Cotswold Chase where I’d give him a massive chance on several lines of form, not to mention ratings, of taking a major Group Two prize back to the Borders stable of Harriet Graham.
He must be everybody’s favourite horse with an incredible set of runs last year, and a repeat of his Ultima third off 154 will likely be enough here with his Newcastle victory in November having been franked by the runner up since and his price of 7/2 can’t be overlooked.
Published at 1725 GMT on 24/01/22
More from Sporting Life
- Racecards
- Fast results
- Full results and free video replays
- Horse racing news
- Horse racing tips
- Horse racing features
- Download our free iOS and Android app
- Football and other sports tips
- Podcasts and video content
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
Next Off
Most Followed
MOST READ RACING
