Free horse racing tips: Best Bets for Saturday at Musselburgh
Andrew Asquith has looked over the entries at Musselburgh on Saturday and has found two horses who are of interest.
Weekend View betting tips: Saturday March 30
1pt win Chillingham in the 3.35 Musselburgh at 8/1 (General)
1pt win Ice Max in the 1.50 Musselburgh at 8/1 (Bet365, BetMGM, BetUK, 7/1 General)
I am starting to focus more on Flat racing now and that points us in the direction of Musselburgh this weekend. The main race I want to concentrate on is the Virgin Bet Queen’s Cup, a competitive handicap over a mile and three quarters where 21 horses were left in the race on Monday. However, several of them are qualified to run at the All-Weather Championships on Good Friday, and with the substantial prize money on offer at those meetings, it does have the potential to cut up somewhat.
When looking through the entries for the Queen’s Cup, the horse who immediately jumped off the page to me was the Edward Bethell-trained CHILLINGHAM, a horse that I was a big fan of last season. He had been progressive as a three-year-old in 2022, winning two of his four starts, and picked up where he had left off when making a successful reappearance at Thirsk from a BHA mark of 90 in April last year.
He was strong in the market on that occasion and won with any amount in hand, confirming his liking for testing ground and value for at least double the winning margin given he was eased close home. Chillingham went on to run a cracker upped to a mile and three quarters when fourth in the Copper Horse Handicap at Royal Ascot. Vauban proved himself incredibly well handicapped that day, while the runner-up, Absurde, went on to win the Ebor at York later in the season, and recently won the County Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival, so that form has a very solid look to it.
You can perhaps say that Chillingham didn’t progress as expected afterwards, failing to land the odds in a mile and a half handicap at Ripon next time, where he was well positioned and looked the most likely winner entering the final furlong – he traded at 1.31 in-running on Betfair – but was just edged out near the finish having not done much once in front.
He didn’t settle fully in the Silver Bell at Hamilton won by Postileo – who had finished behind him in the Copper Horse – and he was very much unsuited by how the race was run in the Northumberland Plate at Newcastle, held up in a race not run at a true gallop, never able to land a blow and finishing with running left at the line.
Chillingham confirmed himself a horse who has more to offer when beaten half a length by Prydwen back over a mile and three quarters at Wolverhampton when last seen in November, though, given a more proactive ride this time but again, not doing too much in front and succumbing to the late and fast-finishing winner. Chillingham will be 4lb better of with Prydwen if that rival takes his chance on Saturday, but he is also in the Marathon at Newcastle on Friday.
The return to turf will be a positive for Chillingham and ground conditions should also suit. It is currently good to soft, soft in places at Musselburgh, but there is more rain forecast later in the week and that would definitely be in his favour. It also is worth remembering that Chillingham remains with few miles on the clock for a five-year-old, while he is also totally unexposed at this trip after just two attempts.
He will race from the same mark as when hitting the frame at Royal Ascot and, in a race where there doesn’t appear to be too many progressive sorts among the entries, he remains a horse to be positive about. Chillingham also goes well when fresh and the sharp nature of the track at Musselburgh shouldn’t be a problem for a horse who can race prominently. This looks a good starting point for him and he is fairly priced at 8/1.
The other race which interests me at Musselburgh on Saturday is the opening Virgin Bet Royal Mile Handicap for three-year-olds. Richard Hannon has four interesting types among the entries and whichever of those make the long journey North will command plenty of respect for a yard that doesn’t have many runners at Musselburgh, but operate at an overall strike rate of 31%.
As you would expect, plenty of these have the potential to take a big step forward this season, and the one that stands out to me at the current prices is the Karl Burke-trained ICE MAX. He wasn’t given a hard time on his debut at Haydock last year, but he was strong in the market and duly showed the benefit of that initial experience when landing the odds at Catterick on his next start.
Indeed, that wasn’t the strongest race of its type, but he had plenty in hand and still looked green in the process. It says a little bit to the regard in which he is held that connections pitched him into Listed company afterwards, but he clearly found that test coming too early in his development, never going with much fluency and beaten some way from home.
However, Ice Max bolted up on his handicap debut back at Catterick on his next start, a little outpaced in the early stages, but that race was run at a brisk gallop early and he easily moved clear of his rivals from two furlongs out, really pouring it on in the closing stages on soft ground. The handicapper hit him with an 11lb rise for that success and he wasn’t in the same form on his final start at Doncaster, not settling fully in ground that Timeform described as heavy and weakening in the final furlong.
That was clearly not his true running and connections made the decision to have him gelded afterwards. Ice Max is a nice type physically, a good-topped gelding who has the potential to develop into an even better three-year-old.
Also, he raced solely at seven furlongs last year, but his pedigree strongly suggests he will improve for the step up to a mile now. Kevin Ryan has his string in good order at present, while there should still be some wiggle room in his official mark of 89 (9lb higher than for his 11-length romp at Catterick), and he will have no problem with likely ground conditions, so a big run is expected on his return to action.
Preview posted at 1415 GMT on 26/03/2024
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