Free horse racing tips: Best Bets for Saturday at Kempton
Our man has looked over the entries at Kempton on Saturday and has found two horses who are of interest.
Weekend View betting tips: Saturday April 6
1pt win Robusto in the 2.40 Kempton at 20/1 (Bet365, 16/1 General)
1pt win Many Tears in the 2.05 Kempton at 10/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
It was a shame that Musselburgh was abandoned last weekend as I was pretty sweet on Chillingham having another crack at a mile and three quarters in testing ground. He has been entered in the Rosebery Handicap at Kempton on Saturday, but I’m not as keen back on the all-weather and over a shorter trip, while he is also shorter in the betting, so he is easy enough to pass over this week for all I think he is a horse to remain positive about on the whole.
The Rosebery Handicap usually always attracts a competitive field and, worth over £50,000 to the winner, there are some interesting types among the entries, notably the John & Thady Gosden-trained Intinso, who has been put in the 4/1 favourite following his easy success on his return to action at Wolverhampton three weeks ago. There was plenty to like about that effort and he remains unexposed, particularly on the all-weather, so it isn’t hard to make a case for him.
However, at a bigger price, I’m hoping ROBUSTO can give a good account on his first start for Eve Johnson Houghton on his return from six months off. He was a typical improver for Sir Mark Prescott last season, relishing the switch to handicaps and step up to middle distances, winning four times in total and moving up 23lb in the weights in the process.
Three of those victories came on the all-weather, the latest over a mile and a half at Lingfield in October, and he had plenty in hand on that occasion, very much looking like a horse who is yet to reach his ceiling. Although he has won twice at Lingfield, that probably isn’t his ideal track, as he is a nice sort physically who has a strong-galloping style running and his most impressive win last year came at Newcastle.
The longer straight at Kempton will allow him more time to hit top gear and there should be even more to come from him as a four-year-old. He was picked up by current connections for 65,000 guineas soon after his win at Lingfield and it is encouraging how well Eve Johnson Houghton is going at present, operating at a 30% strike rate with 78.3% of her horses running to form at the time of writing.
Robusto made a winning return last season – albeit from a mark that clearly underestimated him – so he can go well when fresh and there should still be some wiggle room in his current mark of 81. The standout 20/1 is well worth taking, while the general 16/1 is also fine, so he looks a fair bet at the prices for a race of this nature.
The Snowdrop Fillies’ Stakes was won in style by Laurel 12 months ago and it is doubtful that there is a horse of that calibre in this year’s renewal, but if there is a potential top-level filly amongst them then it could be MANY TEARS.
She is another who is having her first start for a new yard having been picked up for 300,000 guineas from Ger Lyons in December. Many Tears showed improved form once switched to the all-weather at Dundalk last year, making a winning polytrack debut in a handicap over seven furlongs and producing a big career-best effort when landing a listed event at the same track on her final start.
That was her first start at a mile and she clearly relished it, coming from last to first – and having to come wide in the straight – to record a comfortable success. Admittedly, that may not have been the strongest race of its type, but it was hard not to be impressed by the manner of her success, while she arrives totally unexposed at this trip. James Ferguson is another trainer who is going along nicely at present and this looks an ideal starting point for her.
I’m keen to be against the current favourite, Novus, who progressed well last season, winning three times, notably a Group 3 on her final start at Newmarket, but all of those wins came in testing ground. She isn’t sure to reproduce that switched to the all-weather now, while the drop back to a mile may not be in her favour round here, either.
I was surprised to see Many Tears as big as 10/1 for this as she has a positive, unexposed profile, changed hands for big money, and you know she is going to relish conditions. With more to come at this trip, too, I find it hard to see her not running a big race.
- Preview posted 0915 GMT on 02/04/2024
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