Free horse racing tips: Best Bets for Saturday at Doncaster
The Flat season returns at Doncaster on Saturday and Andrew Asquith has two recommended bets, including one in the Lincoln.
Weekend View betting tips: Saturday March 23
1pt win Lattam in the 3.35 Doncaster at 16/1 (Sky Bet, Betvictor, Coral, Unibet)
1pt win Orazio in the 3.00 Doncaster at 4/1 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power, Betfair, Unibet)
As much as I love Cheltenham and jumps racing in general, it is when the Festival has passed that I really start to get excited. It really is a great time of the year. There's daylight at tea-time. You don’t need to wear three or maybe four layers anymore. You can sense your neighbour is itching to get the lawnmower out. That first pint back in a beer garden is on the horizon. But most important of all, the Lincoln at Doncaster signals the start of the Flat season. The air really is full of optimism!
I’m only around 25 minutes away from Town Moor so the Lincoln Handicap has been one of my favourite races for a while and it is a tricky conundrum to solve, especially at this stage of the week. However, I’m keen to be against current favourite Awaal, who races from the same mark as when second to Migration 12 months ago, but didn’t really build on that effort for the remainder of last season.
Migration is 4lb higher and is probably better than a handicapper on his day, so I can definitely see him running another cracker given he often goes well when fresh and a straight mile really brings the best out of him. At a general 14/1 he does make some appeal.
The ground is currently soft at Doncaster, but with mild temperatures forecast for the rest of the week, with little rain, the track will continue to dry out and we should be looking at no worse than good-to-soft ground on Saturday.
The horse who interests me most for this year’s Lincoln is LATTAM, who won the Irish version on his return last season when trained by William Haggas. He went on to finish runner-up to Jimi Hendrix in the Spring Cup at Newbury on his next start, which proved to be very strong form, with that rival going on to win the Hunt Cup at Royal Ascot from a BHA mark of 103 and was far from disgraced in the Summer Mile back at Ascot afterwards.
Lattam quickly resumed winning ways in a useful handicap on his all-weather debut at Newcastle soon after, and he deserved extra credit for coming out on top in a tight finish that day, breaking from the worst draw in stall 1 and having to come across to the stand-rail, while he also made his challenge away from the other principals in the middle of the track.
Other notable efforts last season include when a close third to a well-handicapped Rhoscolyn in a soft-ground handicap at Goodwood, where he split two next-time-out winners, including The Gatekeeper, who finished fourth and will meet Lattam on 4lb worse terms on Saturday following his win in the Balmoral Handicap on his final start.
Lattam could only finish seventh on that occasion, but it came just eight days after he had run another solid race in a typically competitive handicap at York, and he had maybe had enough for the season at that point. He has since changed hands for 50,000 guineas and joined Julie Camacho, who is more than capable with new recruits, and will likely have had the Lincoln earmarked as his starting point for a while.
Furthermore, Lattam has an excellent record when fresh, making a winning debut at Haydock in 2022 and, as already mentioned, winning the Irish Lincoln on his return last season. He still looks feasibly handicapped from a mark of 95 (just 1lb higher than for his Newcastle success) and a strongly-run race over a straight, galloping mile like Doncaster will be tailormade for him. The ground will be no problem and I think he looks a little overpriced at 16/1 – you could argue he would be half the price if still trained by William Haggas.
The market for the Cammidge Trophy Stakes also has an interesting look to it. It is Baradar and Marshman who are vying for favouritism at the time of writing, but the former has never raced over a bare six furlongs before (won over an extended six furlongs at Doncaster last season), while the latter didn’t quite live up to his reputation last year for all he was given some tough tasks – he isn’t the biggest, either.
The one who stands out to me is the Charlie Hills-trained ORAZIO, who, admittedly didn’t often deliver what he promised last season. However, he looked a pattern performer in the making when winning a couple of handicaps at Newmarket and Ascot in April and May last year, and started clear favourite for both the Wokingham and Stewards’ Cup on the back of those efforts.
For all he didn’t deliver on either occasion, he was far from disgraced in the Wokingham, only beaten two and a half lengths, and he didn’t give his true running at Goodwood when getting no cover on the wing of his group.
There were no excuses in the Ayr Gold Cup on his final start (for which he again started favourite), but he travelled through that contest like a horse who possesses plenty of class, for all he didn’t go through with his effort in the closing stages. Interestingly, Orazio has been gelded since, and it really could be the making of him.
Charlie Hills has a rich history of improving sprinters and Orazio starts back this season still will few miles on the clock. Moreover, he can boast a very good record when fresh, making a winning debut at Windsor in 2021 and also scoring at Newmarket last season after a 102-day break (his run prior came after a 17-month absence). This may be the time to catch him and he still has the potential to make up into a pattern-class sprinter this season, so I’m of the opinion that 4/1 is more than fair in a race of this nature in what should be perfect ground conditions for him.
- Preview posted at 1200 GMT on 19/03/2024
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