Andrew Asquith enjoyed a 10/1 winner last weekend and is back with two more bets at Ascot this Saturday.
Racing betting tips: Saturday December 16
1pt win Victtorino in 3.00 Ascot at 13/2 (General)
1pt e.w. Nemean Lion in 3.35 Ascot at 16/1 (Sky Bet, Coral, Ladbrokes 1/4 1,2,3,4)
There is Grade 1 action this weekend at Ascot in the Long Walk Hurdle and it looks a wide open race and betting market at this point. I was surprised to see Crambo at the head of the betting for all he does remain with plenty of potential, but he was beaten in a handicap last time (he did shape well) and goes up against some hardened staying types now. At first glance, I was looking to take him on, but it is a congested market in behind, and I can’t see anything at the prices.
Therefore, we’ll move on to the Howden Silver Cup Handicap Chase, where only 12 horses were left in on Monday, but there is some depth in there. The unexposed Blackjack Magic barely put a foot wrong when winning the Badger Beer last time, so it is no surprise to see him at the head of the betting, especially as he should have even more to offer and is only 6 lb higher here.
However, I’m going to concentrate on the course and distance form of the Sodexo Live! Gold Cup which was won by VICTTORINO last month. He was relatively easy to back near the off that day – he started at 20/1 – but went through his race like a horse ahead of his mark.
The early pace was sedate, and he settled nicely to the outside in rear, a little keen at times but moving through the pack and finding himself tracking the leaders as they headed out for the second circuit. Victtorino lost his position briefly as the pace began to lift and he was as fluent as he had been at a couple of his fences, but he moved back into contention stylishly and was produced to challenge early in the straight.
Victtorino had a comfortable lead after jumping two from home, but Yeah Man was starting to rally and looked very threatening jumping the last where he fell on landing. Whether he would have gone past Victtorino had he stood up I'm not sure, as Charlie Deutsch didn't have to get too serious on the run-in and he maintained the gallop.
Victtorino has been raised 4 lb for that success and, even if the winning margin may have been flattered somewhat with the fallers at the last, what he did in the race itself suggests to me he is a fair bit ahead of his mark. I like how he has been given plenty of time since, this race more than likely penciled in soon after that victory, and I would have him shorter in the betting than Yeah Man, who is 3 lb out of the weights as it stands. The likely ground will be no problem for Victtorino, and he is just the type that Venetia Williams will continue to get more out of, so I'm more than happy to get involved at around 13/2.
The Betfair Exchange Trophy Hurdle which closes the card at Ascot on Saturday is another handicap I'm keen to get one on side. Several of these ran in the Greatwood at Cheltenham last month, and it is the winner of that race, Iberico Lord, who is rightly heading the ante-post market.
He had been the subject of positive reports in the lead up to that race, and he duly proved himself well handicapped, just kept up to his work in the closing stages to beat Lookaway by two and a half lengths.
Iberico Lord is 8 lb higher now and that may not be enough to stop this progressive five-year-old from following up if taking his chance – Nicky Henderson also has Impose Toi, another unexposed sort owned by J. P. McManus.
However, at the prices, I am more interested in the claims of NEMEAN LION, who finished fifth in the Greatwood, nine and a half lengths behind Iberico Lord, but he did shape a bit better than the bare result suggests.
He travelled powerfully towards the rear and still had every chance at the top of the hill, but a less-than-fluent leap three from home and a bad mistake at the second-last more or less ended his chance. That is the worry with Nemean Lion, who is prone to the odd mistake, but he still appeals as being a well-handicapped horse from a BHA mark of 140. The form of his Welsh Champion Hurdle win, which came from 5 lb lower, isn’t working out all that badly and he travels through his races like he has an even bigger performance in the locker.
The return to likely better ground may also be in his favour – his last two wins over hurdles have come on ground Timeform described as good to soft – and he looks a little too big at around 16/1 when taking into account he was sent off at 6/1 for the Greatwood.
Published at 1220 GMT on 19/12/23
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