Free horse racing tips: Best Bets for Saturday at Ascot and Haydock

Weekend View betting tips: Saturday February 17

1pt win Monviel in the 2.25 Ascot at 12/1 (bet365, Unibet)

0.5pt win Highland Hunter in the 3.15 Haydock at 12/1 (General)

0.5pt win Shan Blue in the 3.00 Ascot at 12/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power, Sky Bet)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

This is a weekend that has seen Venetia Williams enjoy plenty of success and victory for L'Homme Presse in the Betfair Ascot Chase will be the bare minimum for expectations.

Looking only at the three major handicaps alone, Williams won the Virgin Bet Grand National Trial in 2014, '18 and '23, and the Swinley Handicap Chase in 2017 and 2019; the Ascot Handicap Hurdle has eluded her thus far, but she saddled 16/1 shots to finish second in both 2022 and 2014.

It's relevant because Williams has entries in all three races who all have something to commend them. The yard started the 'season proper' - for wont of a better description - in blistering form and had strike rates of 25% (albeit one winner from four runners in October), 28% and 33% but that has dropped to just 8% in January and 7% thus far in February. Some drop off is inevitable and those horses that won handicaps will obviously be higher in the weights and finding life harder, but those 2024 figures are a little below where the stable could expect to be operating at this time of year.

It's more of a question mark than a cause for concern but is enough to pass over Bucksy Des Epeires and Victtorino at Ascot; both disappointed last time but have plenty going for them otherwise.

Fontaine Collonges disappointed at Haydock 12 months ago when sent off the 7/2 favourite for the Grand National Trial only to finish tenth, some 44 lengths behind stablemate Quick Wave. She won a course handicap earlier that season so it's not hard to make a case for her faring better this time around, but she wasn't at her best at Warwick (was held-up and her best form has come when racing prominently) and remains on a career high mark.

It's no surprise that the market is dominated by the younger, more progressive runners and, in the main, they write their own cases. Where It All Began, the sole remaining entry of three from Gordon Elliott, is an exception at a general 20/1 (bigger in places). He's yet to win in seven chase starts and his career hasn't really got going as connections would have hoped, but there a couple of reasons for Where It All Began taking the eye.

Firstly, the fitting of cheekpieces has brought about improved form the last twice and secondly, he could progress now faced with a test of stamina. Where It All Began is a half-brother to Grand National third and four mile winner Rathvinden among others and has shaped as though in need of this sort of test; it could be the making of him.

However, the more proven claims of 2021 Welsh National second HIGHLAND HUNTER are preferred.

Having run well on his return at Kelso, he was a leading fancy for the Becher Chase only to unseat at The Chair. He's since had a nice run round Lingfield in the Fleur De Lys Chase (won by L'Homme Presse) which should have got his eye back in over regulation fences and put him spot on for this more realistic target.

Older horses have a good recent record in this race, Quick Wave was the fourth winner aged at least 10 in the last five runnings, two of whom were returned at 18s and 33s. Highland Hunter doesn't have too many miles on the clock and while an interrupted career means he may not hit the heights once hoped for, he still appears to retain the ability to be effective from his current mark granted his conditions which are a thorough test on soft ground.

He will get those on Saturday.

A good entry for the Ascot Handicap Hurdle includes last year's winner, Irish Hill, who is rated 3lbs lower having rather lost his way. He's interesting from a handicapping perspective but a chance is taken that MONVIEL can get back on track after an abortive chase career.

He only raced three times for Philip Hobbs last season, winning here before finishing fifth in the Betfair Hurdle and the Imperial Cup (both from slightly higher marks than he will race on Saturday); settling better than he had as a novice and looking as though he could well benefit from stepping up in trip.

Monviel started well enough for Harry Derham when splitting JPR One and Iceo at Newton Abbot but has been off since disappointing at Ascot when it was reported he'd not only lost a shoe but also had an irregular heartbeat.

Clearly little went right that day but he has been given ample time to recover and to get re-accustomed to hurdling and has the ability to provide his rookie trainer with a notable Saturday success in front of the ITV cameras.

SHAN BLUE looked on the way back in first time cheekpieces when a close third to Triple Trade and the idling monkey Harper's Brook over an inadequate two miles three at Ascot in December; he's well handicapped on his old form but some doubts remain and similar remarks apply to last year's winner Cap Du Nord.

Bowtogreatness hasn't had many chances at this trip and was a fine second to Midnight River at Aintree on one of them; he could bounce back with his yard going well but the stable also have the option of running the progressive Henry's Friend. They are both in the Reynoldstown as is Kilbeg King who was hit with a 7lb rise for finishing third in the Kauto Star, leaving him 5lbs lower than when beaten in an Exeter handicap, albeit over a trip short of his best.

The latter's one of the market leaders in the Swinley Handicap Chase along with Threeunderthrufive - whose losing run goes back to January 2022 - the aforementioned Victtorino and Iron Bridge who is a shorter price for the Haydock contest.

Revels Hill has been off for some time but has run well after a similar absence - here on last season's reappearance - so that is less of a concern than the possibility that the handicapper has his measure. He won back-to-back races in 2022 but his form figures since are 2, 4, 3, 2, 3 with one of those '3's being in last year's renewal from 1lb lower and connections may well have greater tests of stamina and a similar programme to last spring in mind.

In contrast, these conditions look ideal for Shan Blue and the 12/1 on offer with a handful of firms is too tempting a carrot to ignore.

Andrew Asquith has had winners at 10/1, 9/1 and 10/1 over the last two weekends and will return with his regular column next week.

Preview posted at 1031 GMT on 13/02/2024

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