Andrew Asquith is back with his latest ante-post column and has found three bets at Musselburgh on Saturday.
Weekend View: Saturday February 1
1pt win Maitre En Science in the 1.42 Musselburgh at 8/1 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power, Betfair)
1pt win Afadil in the 2.17 Musselburgh at 10/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
1pt win Saint Segal in the 2.50 Musselburgh at 8/1 (Bet365, William Hill)
It has been a slow start to the year for this column, but there has been some misfortune along the way, especially last week, with Moon Rocket shaping like the best horse in the River Don at Doncaster, and going down only narrowly despite being bumped and carried across the track. Then there was the tragedy of Forward Plan in the Great Yorkshire Chase, who sadly suffered a fatal injury when falling four from home after making rapid headway and looking very threatening.
We go again, though, and in this column this time last year we recorded a double with Afadil in the Scottish County Hurdle at Musselburgh and Saint Davy in the big handicap hurdle at Sandown. Let’s hope for more of the same this year!
At the time of writing, Sandown have precautionarily added three extra chase races as with the weather forecast they are unsure the hurdles track will be raceable (it is currently heavy, soft in places but with heavy rain forecast later in the week). They are obviously hopeful the chase course will stand up to the potential weather threat.
It makes sense to stay away from Sandown at this stage of the week, but luckily, there is a good card at Musselburgh, and a few stand out at the prices.
First up is new French recruit MAITRE EN SCIENCE in the bet365 Scottish Triumph Hurdle. It isn’t often a straightforward process translating French form to domestic form, but if you use Timeform ratings, Harry Derham’s four-year-old very much stands out.
Indeed, he is at least 11lb clear of his rivals on weight-adjusted ratings, and he has joined a yard that do especially well with new recruits. Maitre En Science built on the promise of his debut effort when opening his account in a juvenile event at Dieppe in July, running to a fairly useful level on Timeform’s scale, and the runner-up gave that form a big boost when scoring by 14 lengths next time, while the fourth was also a 10-length winner on his next start.
Maitre En Science progressed further to follow up under a penalty in a similar event at Clairefontaine when last seen in September and that form also looks very strong. The runner-up that day went on to hit the frame in a Grade 3 event before making a winning start over fences, the third won comfortably next time, and the fourth has won three times since, notably a Listed event at Auteuil.
There was plenty to like about Maitre En Science’s success that day, too, taking a keen hold early in a prominent position, jumping neatly throughout and finding plenty on the run-in to win comfortably under a hands-and-heels ride.
The way he travelled and jumped that day suggests he will having no problem with the test of speed which will likely present itself at Musselburgh on Saturday and he already stands out a mile on form. A slight concern would be quicker ground, but he’s a half-brother to numerous winners on the Flat, and his dam was also placed in Listed company on the Flat on ground Timeform described as good to soft.
His form, potential and new yard all point to him looking pretty big in the betting at around 8/1. There is also only Maitre En Science and Hosaamm who hold entries in the Triumph Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival and the likelihood is he won’t even need to improve any further to come out on top against these rivals.
As mentioned earlier, the Paul Nicholls-trained AFADIL was selected in this space 12 months ago, and I think he’s priced fairly enough at around 10/1 to make it back-to-back wins in the bet365 Scottish County Handicap Hurdle.
He’s actually going for a hat-trick at this meeting – he won the Scottish Triumph Hurdle in 2023 – so Musselburgh is a track that clearly suits him well, while both of those victories also came on good-to-soft ground, which looks likely again this weekend.
Afadil went on to run an excellent race in the County Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival on his next start, looking to have plenty of his rivals in trouble after quickening again after jumping two out – he traded as short as 2.54 in-running having started a 40/1 outsider – but he succumbed to some stronger stayers on the run-in.
In-the-frame efforts in some useful handicaps from the same mark of 130 at Aintree and Ayr followed and, though he hasn’t quite found his form so far this season, the handicapper has been quick to relent, dropping him 10lb in the weights, which leaves him 4lb lower in the handicap than when successful in this race 12 months ago.
The form book will tell you that Afadil was beaten over 60 lengths at Southwell last time, which was the most valuable National Hunt race to ever take place at the track, but there was a clear track bias that day. He raced on the unfavoured inside and was one of the first beaten, so it wasn’t as bad as it looks on paper, and you would expect Afadil to be seen to much better effect returned to a sound surface.
He has plenty of natural speed, an attribute which lends itself well to the sharp nature of Musselburgh, while his usual prominent style of racing will also see him to good effect. Afadil tends to hit form at this time of year and if he’s anywhere near the level of the pick of his form from last season he must have an excellent chance from a career-low mark.
Finally, I think there is a bit of value in backing SAINT SEGAL in the bet365 Scottish Champion Chase.
Admittedly, he isn’t the most fluent jumper of a fence, likely to be rated much higher but for his jumping mishaps which have cost him several races, but that aspect of his game was much more polished when he resumed winning ways at Newbury last month.
He was well backed to take advantage of a reduced mark on that occasion, belatedly putting it all together to produce a performance he’s long threatened to, jumping errors largely kept to a minimum and proving well suited by a switch to front running tactics.
It is to his testament that he was able to sustain a strong gallop all the way to the line, too, drawing clear of his rivals approaching the last and having matters firmly in hand on the run-in. That form looks solid, with the runner-up running just as well in defeat when filling the same position next time, and the very well-handicapped third looked set to win the Great Yorkshire Chase at Doncaster last weekend prior to falling at the last.
The handicapper has rightly raised him in the weights, but an 8lb rise isn’t excessive, particularly as he’s gone close from higher marks in the past. The track at Musselburgh will suit him well if the same prominent tactics are employed, while the fences aren’t too stiff, either. The ground will also suit him well and if Saint Segal gets in a good rhythm round here he may take some stopping.
Preview posted at 1445 GMT on 28/01/2025
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