Andrew McLaren sits in for Andrew Asquith this week and he has three selections at Kempton and Warwick on Saturday in his ante-post column.
Weekend View: Saturday January 10
1pt win Val Dancer in the Classic Handicap Chase at 12/1 (William Hill, 888sport, 10/1 General)
1pt win Lord Snootie in the Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle at 16/1 (William Hill, 14/1 General)
1pt win Just A Rose in the Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle at 33/1 (bet365, Unibet, 25/1 General)
The cold snap has decimated the fixture list this week, but the signs are fairly positive for Saturday with some forecasts predicting temperatures to rise above freezing overnight from Thursday onwards, which will hopefully be enough to see Kempton and Warwick both go ahead.
Warwick are forecast anywhere between 10-20mm of rain on Thursday and Friday, so expect the ground to ease from the current Good to Soft (Good in places), news which will be music to the ears of many of the stayers set to line up for the William Hill Half A Mill Classic Handicap Chase.
None more so than Mr Vango – a relentless galloper who really needs testing conditions to be at his best having pulled up on both his runs on Good to Soft ground. He went down fighting in the Becher on his return and he can be expected to put up a bold show again with the test of jumping and stamina that this race provides right up his street. He’s not been missed in the market though, a best price of 5/1 currently, and with a career high mark to defy after another 3lb rise for his Aintree defeat, I’m happy to look beyond him at this stage.
Three-and-a-quarter lengths behind him last time was VAL DANCER who looks to be coming to the boil nicely and ready to run the race of his life on Saturday. Winner of the Welsh National in 2024, that was his first real crack at an extreme distance and he thrived on it, showing bundles of stamina and determination to see off the challenge of Iwilldoit, and as far as marathon handicappers go, he’s still got age on his side having just turned nine.
He looked in need of his comeback run at Carlisle in November when the Mel Rowley team hadn’t really got going, but with his yard in much better form he duly stepped forward with that run under his belt and ran an encouraging race behind Mr Vango and Twig in the Becher, staying on well on the run in after making a mistake at the Canal Turn.
A prominent racer who jumps well, the demands of this track should suit him and this stamina test over an extreme distance will bring out the best in him. The presence of L’Homme Presse means he has to run from out the handicap, but he looks to be hitting his peak at just the right time and 12/1 is a fair price.
The ITV action at Warwick comes to a close with the Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle and I think LORD SNOOTIE is worth backing here at a big price. He’s got some very strong form in the book in staying handicap hurdles - a fast-finishing second to Cuthbert Dibble who was third in the Pertemps Final on his next start, and a second to subsequent Grade 2 winner Gwennie May Boy at Aintree both looking very good in the context of this race.
He didn’t take to chasing on his sole start over fences and finished down the field on his return, back over hurdles, at Ascot, but he just looked rusty there and in need of the run and the Christian Williams yard are in a rich vein of form currently, with four winners from their last 10 runners.
He can do some damage off a mark of 123 if coming forward as expected with that run under his belt and looks a good bet at 16/1.
If Kempton gets the green light to go ahead I would be keen on the chances of Ben Pauling’s Leader In The Park, whichever race he turns up in. He has two entries there currently – one over two-and-a-half miles and one over three-miles – and his bold jumping and front running style is perfect for Kempton.
He won there on his only previous visit to the track and the form of his last run when second to Booster Bob is proving extremely strong, with both the third and fourth winning their next starts.
The uncertainty on his running plans means it’s hard to commit to a bet at this stage, but he’s one to have high on the shortlist for Saturday.
The Coral Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle is the big betting race there the Paul Nicholls-trained mare JUST A ROSE is quite easily the most interesting in here to me at this early stage.
Bought for £175,000 after winning her point-to-point, this mare absolutely bolted up by 26 lengths on her debut for Nicholls at Taunton last year before heading straight to the Cheltenham Festival for the Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle where she was ultimately pulled up, but it was a big ask to send her there on just her second start, and an indication of the regard her trainer holds her.
It’s worth remembering that in the build up to the Festival, Nicholls said: “I think she is quite smart and I don’t think there is a lot between her and Jubilee Alpha.”
Jubilee Alpha is now rated 139 so if you trust the 14-time champion trainer’s judgement, a mark of 121 for Just A Rose could prove rather lenient, a theory backed up by the horse she beat in her point-to-point, Country Mile, who is now with Dan Skelton and rated 137.
Unlimited Replays
of all UK and Irish races with our Race Replays
Discover Sporting Life Plus Benefits
She disappointed on the face of it when fifth in a handicap back at Taunton last month (see free video replay, above), but I’m happy to forgive her there as the race didn’t play to her strengths with the conditions placing the emphasis on speed and the winner made all with an uncontested lead. That was her first run after a wind op too, so she may have needed it, and a step up in trip in a big field handicap like should see her in a much better light.
She’s still massively unexposed – that was just her third run under rules – and I’d be amazed if a mark of 121 is a true reflection of her ability.
She doesn’t have a jockey booked yet, but she doesn’t have any other entries, so hopefully this is the plan, and at 33/1 I’m happy to take that risk.
Preview posted at 1430 GMT on 06/01/2025
More from Sporting Life
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
