Chris Day takes an early look at the weekend's action at Epsom and he has five bets including in the Derby and the Dash.
Racing betting tips: Saturday June 3
1pt Regal Reality in 12.50 Epsom at 7/1 (Hills)
1pt win Military Order in 1.30 Epsom at 4/1 (Sky Bet, Hills, Betfred)
1pt win Potapova in 2.10 Epsom at 9/2 (Hills)
1pt win Alligator Alley in 3.20 Epsom at 25/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook)
1pt win Scampi in 4.30 Epsom at 5/1 (General)
The Betfred Derby looks as tricky a puzzle as I can remember and I couldn’t even be certain what will go off favourite with events over the weekend at the Curragh likely to have a major beating on the race.
With Aidan O’Brien and Ryan Moore dominating proceedings at the Irish Guineas meeting after a quiet enough start to the season it seems confidence is high that winter favourite for the race, Auguste Rodin, who completely blew out first time out at Newmarket, will return to form at Epsom.
He was a dominant two-year-old, although I’m not sure of the validity of the Vertem Futurity form, which was run on very soft ground, where he may have benefitted from being well positioned on the course and, with the ground likely to be on the fast side of good by Saturday, he needs to show he can operate under those conditions.
Charlie Johnston, in his first year as a trainer, has a credible contender in Group One-winning two-year-old Dubai Mile and there was plenty to like about his return to action in the Guineas where he was a staying-on fifth in what could be seen as a perfect Derby trial.
His best form is also on very soft ground, although he did run well in the Royal Lodge on better ground, when just denied by recent Dante winner, The Foxes.
I liked the way The Foxes travelled at York, a race he won by quickening two out then holding on from the fast-finishing White Birch, who had the benefit of a run in winning the Ballysax at Leopardstown, although he is held by the Jessica Harrington-trained Sprewell on collateral form, as he thrashed Up And Under in the Group Three Derby Trial at the same track last month.
At least White Birch did show he acts on quick ground in the Dante but I think Oisin Murphy will hold on to The Foxes for longer over the extra two furlongs and expect him to confirm the form.
Back in third after being constantly denied a clear passage was Wood Ditton winner, Passenger, who has significantly been supplemented for the race.
The last time I remember Sir Michael Stoute doing this was with Kris Kin before Kieren Fallon gave him one of the all time great Derby rides and, if Richard Kingscote can do the same, he’s a massive danger.
The trainer is known for his patience so the fact he’s decided to supplement should be viewed in a very positive light, especially given his breeding as I always thought Ulysses was a much better horse over 10 furlongs.
It’s pretty unoriginal but I do believe MILITARY ORDER is the one to beat with practically no negatives to his chances.
A full-brother to Adayar and from a family of other top-class middle distance horses, he had a relatively quiet time as a two-year-old but his form has taken off at three, the most recent evidence being a victory at Lingfield on the polytrack in their Derby Trial where I loved how he buckled down when challenged by Waipiro at the furlong marker. I get the feeling we’ll see a much better horse at the weekend with everything having been geared to the first Saturday in June from the moment he set foot on a racecourse so the 4/1 available in places does look pretty generous taking everything into account.
The day opens with the Betfred Diomed Stakes, a Group Three over a mile, and the Godolphin trained four-year-old, Highland Avenue, would be the one to be with if returning to his early season form at three and he was only just behind Sunday’s Group One winner, Anmaat, at Newmarket first time out.
Miles back in fourth that day was the Sir Michael Stoute-trained eight-year-old, REGAL REALITY, who has been a high-class performer for a number of years now. He has a number of victories at quirky tracks like Epsom and has no record fresh to speak of especially on soft ground.
On this better ground and with a fast pace likely, I can see Ryan Moore bringing him fast and late down the outside and I think there’s value in his odds of 7/1.
The race that follows the Derby, the Princess Elizabeth Stakes, does look a good opportunity for last year’s 1000 Guineas runner up, Prosperous Voyage, to return to winning ways although I was very disappointed by her comeback effort when everything appeared to be in her favour.
I like another Stoute/Moore contender here in POTAPOVA, who was never going to be suited to the very soft ground she encountered on her comeback when sent off favourite and she hasn’t got much to find receiving weight from the favourite and I think the difference between her price of 5/1 and the favourite at 2/1 is much too big.
The Aston Martin Dash is always one of the most exciting races of the meeting and Andrew Balding’s four-year-old filly, Nymphadora, could be about to fulfill the promise she’s always shown after a comfortable win at Chester last time out.
At 25/1, though, I can’t resist ALLIGATOR ALLEY, who is always fancied yet often seems to find trouble in running yet could be very well handicapped and ideally suited to being held up just off the pace and brought through late to claim the spoils.
One favourite I really like is the Andrew Balding trained SCAMPI, who cruised through a strong York handicap last time and looks primed for the Northern Dancer Handicap, which is particularly interesting given he could have waited for Royal Ascot.
Preview posted at 1315 BST on 30/05/2023
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