Free horse racing tips: Best Bets for Doncaster, Kelso and Newbury
Chris Day is back with five early fancies for Saturday's action at Doncaster, Kelso and Newbury.
Racing betting tips: Saturday March 4
1pt win Teddy Blue in 1.50 Kelso at 6/1 (General)
1pt win Nemean Lion in 2.25 Kelso at 5/1 (General)
1pts win Paint The Dream in 2.45 Newbury at 7/2 (General)
1pt win Nells Son in 3.00 Kelso at 12/1 (bet365, Unibet)
2pts win Cooper's Cross in 3.15 Doncaster at 11/4 (Hills)
The weather forecast for the week ahead doesn’t include much in the way of rainfall so Kelso’s best meeting of the year looks like going ahead on decent ground.
With the £100,000 bonus on offer to any horse who follows up at the Cheltenham Festival after winning the bet365 Morebattle Hurdle it’s no surprise to see an Emmet Mullins-trained favourite in the shape of the four year old McTigue, an impressive winner of a Sedgefield novice hurdle under such conditions in the autumn.
He’s not really gone on in a couple of better races in Ireland since but the fact he’s entered here and at Cheltenham tells you all you need to know for the shrewdest of connections.
The bookies haven’t missed him, though, and it’s quite difficult to say he’s well treated on what we’ve seen on the racecourse.
A trainer this side of the Irish Sea who specialises in two mile handicap hurdles and likes a tilt at the bonuses available at this time of the season is Dan Skelton and I thought his L’Eau Du Sud showed his turn was near when third to No Ordinary Joe at Kempton over Christmas.
This stiffer track should be right up his street and he’s likely to be doing his best work from the back of the final hurdle but the feeling is that his optimum conditions will be softer ground than he’s likely to encounter on Saturday.
It’s obviously possible to construct a case for a number of these but one with very strong credentials is the Gary Moore trained TEDDY BLUE, who I strongly believe is the one to beat.
He opened the season with an excellent third to First Street and Grivetana at Newbury in November before winning his maiden comprehensively at prohibitive odds next time out.
Last time, returned to Newbury in the very competitive Betfair Hurdle, he upheld the form in holding off his well treated stablemate, Yorksea, who will be winning again soon, finishing third to a couple of handicap blots in Aucunrisque and Filey Bay.
That is as strong a piece of form as there is on offer here and he’ll love the decent conditions plus the left-handed track in what promises to be a similarly strongly run event. Whatever beats him will need to have something in hand as he’s still able to race from a mark of 130 despite holding a Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle entry, among others, at the Festival, so the 6/1 is tempting at this stage.
Emmet Mullins also supplies the favourite in the bet365 Premier Novices’ Hurdle with hurdling debutante, Feronily, a six year old Getaway gelding who won his point to point in November.
Doubtless he’s a high calibre horse but he’s only run twice in Flat races since and this will take some winning on his hurdling debut.
The one I think represents the best value is the former Godolphin owned NEMEAN LION, a six year old who has progressed with each run since running away with a Hereford novice hurdle in November.
Last time out he finished third to Tahmuras in Sandown’s Grade One Tolworth Hurdle when the ground was riding heavy and his breeding suggests he should be more at home on this better surface so all things considered 5/1 looks more than fair.
Last year’s Premier Hurdle winner, NELLS SON was expected to take high rank in the novice chasing division this year for the Nicky Richards stable, who specialise in slowly maturing types.
Things didn’t go to plan in the autumn but he returned to the smaller obstacles with an excellent staying on sixth in a red-hot handicap over the minimum trip on Trials’ Day at Cheltenham as a result of which he now holds a Coral Cup entry at the Festival.
He is entered in the Morebattle but surely needs further now, especially under these conditions, and looks a great bet at 12/1 in the bet365 Handicap Hurdle over 2 1/2 miles.
Moving south, Doncaster’s Virgin Bet Grimthorpe Handicap Chase looks at the mercy of the recent Sky Bet Chase winner, COOPER'S CROSS, who was left in the lead when Paddy Power Chase winner, Ga Law fell when mounting his challenge at the last.
The winner, though, had cruised through the race, clearly appreciating the step up to three miles for the first time and would probably have won anyway as he found plenty from the last. This extra two furlongs threatens to bring about further improvement so he’s a confident selection if Ga Law does renew rivalry and he looks the weekend’s best bet at 3/1.
Two of Newbury’s course specialists, PAINT THE DREAM and Zanza could come face to face in the BetVictor Greatwood Gold Cup Handicap Chase, a race Paul Nicholls has made his own in the last few seasons.
Nicholls runs Espoir De Guye, who has not followed the traditional route of constant improvement since joint Venetia Williams from France and makes his debut for the champion trainer but it’s hard to make a case for him here.
Whilst the race Paint The Dream won at the November meeting did fall apart, he was also the comprehensive winner of this race last year whereas Zanza, who also won here in November, seemed to put up his best performance by some way in winning the Denman Chase last time out when winning despite being badly in at the weights in that Grade Two, which also may not have been a strong race for the level.
On balance I think Paint The Dream will prevail at level weights with both now rated 158 and think 7/2 is solid value, particularly as Hobbs’ contender has an entry elsewhere at the weekend which he may be persuaded to take up if the field cuts up.
Published at 1250 GMT on 28/02/2023
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