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Wild cards in play as HK kings bid to rule again

Spangle will shine, Sixty will slay and Warrior will win another major battle.

So goes the pre-race script for an FWD Champions Day featuring three kings of HK racing but a few new factors are in play for a trio of G1 contests worth around £7.4m.

First, the weather. The Sha Tin track has tremendous drying properties – and the worst of this week’s foul weather seems behind us – but there will surely be residual give in the ground for a ten-race SSR card.

Second, the fact that HK’s top sprinter Lucky Sweynesse is injured puts a different complexion on the Chairman’s Sprint Prize.

Third, the fact that the mighty Golden Sixty has had a leg issue – his first recorded injury setback in five years – adds an extra layer of intrigue to his bid for a fourth consecutive Champions Mile win.

And fourth, Romantic Warrior’s bid for a third consecutive QEII CUP looks far from a sure thing given that he faces a live new shooter and some dangerous old foes.

Can Golden Sixty land a fourth Champs Mile?

The contrarian in me thinks there must be value in opposing an ageing superstar returning from an injury break on ground that might be on the dead side for him.

But then the realist in me recalls the way Francis Lui’s gelding dismissed Voyage Bubble, Namur, Soul Rush and Beauty Joy in the Hong Kong Mile in December – a quartet who have all polished the form in good company since – and realises that opposition could be futile.

As with any race, high class or humble, price is a key factor. Early signs suggest GOLDEN SIXTY is sure to be odds on, possibly 1.5 or shorter, but exotic markets are fundamental to HK punting and the Quinella (first two in either order) looks the way to go here.

Good luck to Archie Watson’s hardy world traveller Brave Emperor and his merry band of Middleham Park owners. A bold effort would be just reward for their enterprise, while Blake Shinn is in for an exciting ride of a different type as he tries to produce the strong-pulling Derby runner-up Galaxy Patch with a powerful late run.

However, VOYAGE BUBBLE and BEAUTY JOY are my two main alternatives to pair with the jolly.

Things didn’t fall for last year’s Derby winner Voyage Bubble in Dubai recently but he’s thrived since finishing fourth on this day twelve months ago and an uncomplicated style and a peak international rating of 119 make him a very solid place contender.

Beauty Joy is out with the washing in the early Tote markets and backing horses who lose 18 in a row to win major G1 mile contests is seldom the road to riches.

But Tony Cruz’s mercurial gelding is no ‘rag’ here. A fine second in this last year, he blossomed with Aussie star Brenton Avdulla in the saddle for the first time to snap his losing streak with a decisive G2 score three weeks ago and another bold show would come as no surprise at all.

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Is Spangle set to seize the Champion Sprinter crown?

Cruz and Avdulla combine again as the reinvention of former crack miler CALIFORNIA SPANGLE continues at 7.50 and, with Lucky Sweynesse sidelined, his international rating of 123 sets the bar high for ten others.

But will the Spangle run to 123 here? Timeform’s handicappers think he did that and a bit more in winning G1s here and in Dubai on his last two starts but he got the dream passage in a messy Queen’s Silver Jubilee Cup and the rivals he beat at Meydan are hardly global aces.

In summary, I’d rather split stakes on two HK rivals than take a shade of odds on about the jolly.

Step forward VICTOR THE WINNER and INVINCIBLE SAGE. The duel for the lead between Victor and Spangle could be vital but Danny Shum’s fiery five-year-old is drawn to attack in stall 2 and he’ll set them all a bold sight provided the early fractions aren’t too severe.

Invincible Sage has come a long way this season, rising from a local mark of 73 to an international rating of 110 after three handicap wins and a career-best second to Lucky Sweynesse in G2 company last time. Still unexposed aged four, this Aussie import is proven on an easy surface and Bowman will be hoping to stalk and pounce from a handy draw in gate 5.

What price should the Warrior be for a third QEII success?

Danny Shum’s gelding has all the tools a top 2000m horse needs, including class, tactical speed, courage and consistency, and his two wins in this £2.86m contest have been gained in commanding fashion.

But, although there isn’t much in it, ROMANTIC WARRIOR probably has less in hand than the market suggests this time. Bravery has got him through in three G1 photos of late – starting with the Cox Plate followed by the HK Cup and the HK Gold Cup – but he might need to be back to his very best if Sunday’s main rivals bring their A games.

Early Tote moves suggest someone is very confident that this year’s dramatic Derby winner Massive Sovereign can make a big splash against ace older horses but there’s no doubt this a vastly deeper race.

Dubai Honour and Hishi Iguazu are other place chances at longer odds but Japanese raider PROGNOSIS is the value call.

Zac Purton referred to this son of Deep Impact as “a bit of a bolter” before coaxing him from well back into second in a steadily-run race last year, while Yuga Kawada has said that “he has big potential but it is so hard to get him to demonstrate his true ability.”

That headstrong nature has left Prognosis poorly placed in tactical contests on two visits to HK but he recorded the fastest closing split on both occasions and returns in prime form after a career best success in G2 company at Chukyo last month, settling beautifully in midfield under a confident Kawada then storming five lengths clear of the impressive Japanese St Leger hero Durezza.

There’s no doubt in my mind that a true pace helped Prognosis fulfil his true potential that day. My old nemesis Sword Point might be the one to provide an even gallop this time and, given that Prognosis looks set to be sent off at 7-1 or longer, I’m more than happy to recommend him as a solid win and place proposition.

Will promising Peach be ripe for his HK bow?

Sunday’s supporting card is replete with intrigue and it will be fascinating to see how former dual G1 runner-up Islandsinthestream – now known as STUNNING PEACH having left Joseph for the Cruz barn – fares on his HK debut.

Zac Purton and the Wootton Bassett gelding will rely on each other, ah ha, in the second race on the card at 6.15 but slightly later risers might find it pays to keep an eye on GENEVA and BLUE MARLIN.

Geneva has caught the eye travelling powerfully for a long way in three HK starts and the step up to 1400m can help him go very close in the 7.15, while the likeable and consistent BLUE MARLIN found traffic trouble against a highly promising rival last time and will surely go well again under Harry Bentley in a very competitive 10.20.

Sunday’s Champions Day Selections

7.15: Geneva

7.50: Victor The Winner/Invincible Sage

9.00: Quinella combining Golden Sixty/Voyage Bubble/Beauty Joy

9.40: Prognosis (EW)

10.20: Blue Marlin (EW)

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