Fran Berry with his inside track on Irish challenge in the 1000 Guineas

Fran Berry 1000 Guineas betting preview for Newmarket as Santa Barbara heads Irish raiding party

By Fran Berry

Horse Racing

Sun May 02, 2021 · 5y ago

Hype horse Santa Barbara all the rage

12 fillies will go to post for Sunday’s 1000 Guineas at Newmarket, but unfortunately, the race lost one of its stars before declarations were made with Fillies' Mile heroine Pretty Gorgeous ruled out on account of a dirty scope.

I had my concerns about Joseph O’Brien’s filly on really quick ground, but that’s irrelevant now and one would suspect that all roads will lead to the Irish 1,000 Guineas at the Curragh, where a drop of rain wouldn’t do her chances any harm.

Back at Newmarket, the first Classic of the season could well be all about Santa Barbara. The market certainly suggests that will be the case given the strength of support behind her since Cheltenham time when she had been available at around 12/1. She’s close to evens now and the level of confidence in this filly from all connected to Ballydoyle would appear highly significant.

I was at the Curragh when she made her debut in September and there was plenty of talk about this daughter of Camelot before racing. She duly won, but it was the manner of the performance that was most striking: held up early before making smooth progress through the field, carrying Seamus Heffernan into the race in a really taking manner and then picking up smartly to score easily. She was green in front, but pulled nicely clear under hands and heels riding and one backhander – beating some experienced rivals in the process.

Santa Barbara bids to get back on track in the Pretty Polly Stakes

Santa Barbara oozed class on debut

Looking at her before and after the race, she was still very immature in terms of appearance, with a big frame that she has presumably filled into over the winter. Given her pedigree, and the fact she’s only had one run, you’d have to say she has the scope for considerable improvement and I remember thinking at the time that in Santa Barbara, we might have seen an Oaks filly that day.

Taking into account her connections, and the wealth of talent at Ballydoyle, the market plunge is particularly interesting and while some of it can be attributed to a number of stable tours speaking positively about her in the spring, more relevant is the piece of work she did at Leopardstown in late March. Aidan took a team of horses to work at the course and by all accounts, Santa Barbara stole the show with a very smart gallop. They raced at Leopardstown the day after and that piece of work was certainly the talk of the track.

On the face of it, the form of her debut success is nothing to write home about. In fact, by Curragh standards, you could argue it’s below par. The second beat the third in an ordinary median auction race at Cork recently, while the fourth is still a 77-rated maiden and the fifth and sixth have been beaten since. The seventh home, Belmont Avenue, did these pages a favour at Dundalk a few weeks back but it’s still a long way from Classic form.

Nevertheless, this is Aidan O’Brien we are talking about and while her price is extremely short – too short to take anything more than a watching brief – the stable confidence behind her is fascinating and I can’t wait to see her run.

Mother Earth solid and experienced

Aidan only runs two this year, with Mother Earth certainly not to be underestimated on the pick of her form, the best of which saw her finish third in the Fillies’ Mile over this same course and distance before she rounded off her two-year-old campaign by running second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf.

Sprint Stakes - Group III
1210 m, 68.000 EUR, for 2yo fillies
🇮🇪 Naas

Mother Earth (IRE)
(2F Zoffany - Many Colours by Green Desert)
J : Wayne Lordan
T : A.P. O'Brien
B : Grenane House Stud
O : Ballydoyle pic.twitter.com/2Q0i6dZC0C
— WR1 (@WorldRacing1) July 4, 2020

She brings a smart level of form to the table but her best efforts have tended to come when she’s been held up, and I just wonder whether connections might want to go forward with her on this occasion, to use her experience and give Santa Barbara something to follow. She’s certainly not in here as a pacemaker, but given the Coolmore pair have drawn next to each other out on the wing, it wouldn’t surprise me if Frankie Dettori was asked to be positive on his filly on a track where it can pay to race handily.

Having the 2000 Guineas run a day earlier, connections will get a good guide as to how the Rowley Mile is riding and I think this filly is capable of running a big race, for all you’d expect one or two to progress past her.

Don't discount talented Thunder Beauty

The third and final Irish runner in the race is Thunder Beauty, a surprise winner at the Curragh in July given Ken Condon’s horses generally improve for a run and the stable isn’t renowned for having first-time-out winners.

Still, there was no doubting it was a useful performance and though she wasn’t seen next until the Moyglare back at the Curragh in September, she confirmed the promise of her debut success with a really solid run in fifth. She definitely warrants marking up for that, having being forced to make her challenge wide and without cover, and to be beaten only three and a half lengths, despite things not working out ideally, was an admirable effort.

With the confirmation that he had a high-class filly on his hands, Condon opted to take in the Prix Marcel Boussac at Longchamp on Arc weekend when things again didn’t go to plan. A wide draw had already made her task a tough one before she veered badly right, impeding a host of her rivals and putting paid to her own chances.

Trainer Ken Condon

All that said, I’ve no doubt that Thunder Beauty is a very talented performer who could run a big race if handling the fast ground and running true and straight. Condon is a shrewd operator whose recent forays to England have been fruitful ones – the likes Miss Amulet and Success Days illustration of that in recent years.

He wouldn’t be travelling without good reason and I can see Thunder Beauty making her presence felt at a big price, for all it is hard to get away from Santa Barbara.

If there is a superstar in the field, I think it will be Aidan’s talking horse, and I’d love to see her put on a show at Newmarket and give us something to really look forward to for the rest of the season.